Box Office Ballers
It was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that infamously stated “Last season was the trailer, this year is the movie.” Unfortunately for him, the 2022 Blue Jays that he was alluding to had more in common with the Star Wars sequel trilogy than A League of Their Own. They were a team filled with promise and optimism that under-delivered and could not manufacture a satisfying ending, causing the above quote to be used against the slugger on numerous occasions.
Without trying to provoke the ire of the baseball gods or manifesting any potential jinxes, the megahit movie analogy could actually fit the 2022 – 2023 Rays far more suitably.
After all, the main stars of the 2023 team were shown in the teaser trailer that was last season. Randy Arozarena is a long-time fan-favourite of the series and fans were eager to see what the likes of Wander Franco, Isaac Paredes and Josh Lowe would do in the starring roles. Glimpses of greatness were scattered across 2022 but many fans were certain that something bigger was brewing.
Now, the Rays are entering the main chunk of what promises to be this summer’s next big Hollywood blockbuster, and the team is equipped with all the necessary components to create a captivating story that is worthy of cleaning up at next year’s Oscars. Tampa Bay’s team is creating both a successful and entertaining product that will stand alongside all of the greatest silver screen epics.
A Shocking Twist…
Despite the Rays dominant run to begin the year, it hasn’t been quite as easy as their win-loss record may suggest. In a strange and unusual twist, the typically dominant bullpen has sputtered and struggled in recent weeks, leading to some blown leads and plenty of anxiety-filled ninth innings.
In concocting their Oscar-winning narrative, the Rays have seemingly created a way to create moments of suspense and high drama. Fans of the team have been used to a relatively easy ride after their starting pitcher gives way. Through various factors, such as injuries to their usual high-leverage pitchers such as Andrew Kittredge and Pete Fairbanks as well as trading away arms like Brooks Raley, it has felt at times that there were very few arms that could be trusted in the most crucial moments… But is that actually true?
Something that may shock many fans is that Tampa’s bullpen is, in fact, one of the best sets of relief arms in the Major Leagues. Firstly, let’s look at ERA+, a stat that takes earned run average and adjusts it based on the ballparks played in and league-wide offensive tendencies, allowing for an easy indicator of pitcher performance when compared to other teams in a given year. 100 is league average, with anything above that being better than that, anything below is not. As of the time of writing, the Rays have the third highest team ERA+ among relievers, with only Astros and Braves beating their 115 mark – indicating that they are actually performing well above the eye test in terms of run prevention. As well as this, Rays bullpen arms have only let 26% of their inherited runners score, the fifth lowest ratio in baseball. This means that they are, for the most part, doing exactly what they are supposed to do.
As a core, none of their stats are particularly eye-catching in either direction and they actually have the third-lowest reliever ERA since June 1st. The acquisitions of Stuff+ savants Jake Diekman and Robert Stephenson, have definitely helped with that too.
The real big first-act twist in the 2023 Rays saga is that, after all, the bullpen is good. But long-time fans of the series would know that this rag-tag group of misfits were always bound to put aside their differences and growing pains to overcome adversity and prove the doubters wrong. Some would say that the ‘cobbled together bullpen’ narrative has been overdone by Stu Sternberg’s scriptwriters, but for now, it’s doing just fine in the ratings.
An Unlikely Hero
In the movie world, a trope writers are often urged to avoid is making their lead character a ‘Mary-Sue’. For those that don’t know, a Mary-Sue is a character in fiction that is instantly amazing at everything and has no real flaws or weaknesses. They tend to be bland and hard to invest in, leading to viewer apathy or disdain. Shohei Ohtani is probably the closest thing baseball has to a Mary-Sue, but with far too much charisma to be saddled with that kind of derogatory title.
Audiences like to root for an underdog, to find someone that comes from very little to rise up to success as they can watch him grow and overcome the odds to help save the day.
Luke Raley is that guy.
Drafted by the Dodgers in the seventh round in 2016, Raley wasn’t ever regarded as a prospect with any notable pedigree. He never placed in any prospect rankings, nor was there any hype around his steady ascent up the minor leagues. He was traded to the Twins in 2018 before being sent back to the Dodgers in the Brusdar Graterol/Kenta Maeda swap in 2020. He made his major league debut in 2021 and did not produce anything of value with LA. He accumulated -0.5 bWAR in 33 games that season and was subsequently traded again, this time to the Rays in the Spring of 2022. He would then spend the majority of that season with AAA Durham, but not showing much in the way of production during his short stint with the parent club.
Tasked with finding an ‘impact bat’ over the offseason, Erik Neander and the front office scouted around but concluded that their next big bopper was in fact already in-house.
Many Rays fans were initially skeptical of Raley’s capabilities after his lukewarm display in the previous year, and were feeling underwhelmed with the front office’s decision. The Ohio native would come out of the gates flying and prove the naysayers wrong in a flash. Despite it only being June, ‘Nuke’ Raley has already outperformed both his ZIPS and Steamer projections in terms of fWAR, and this has been almost entirely down to his excellent hitting.
This does not seem to be a fluky spell either, as all indicators say he has been annihilating baseballs this year, holding a 98th percentile barrel rate and an eye-popping 96th percentile in xwOBA. Not only that, he is currently sixth in the majors in OPS+ (minimum 40 games played). You could argue that this year, he is a top 10 hitter in all of baseball thus far, and his seemingly out-of-nowhere nature has made him all the more fun to root for, adding to the already fun and diverse cast in this exciting epic.
Jason Adam Is Nicolas Cage
It is common knowledge that every good movie needs to have a Nicolas Cage appearance in it somewhere. While it is pretty unlikely that an MLB team would be able to sign the former National Treasure star, the Rays have their very own version of ‘The Cage’ – Jason Adam.
There has been a never-ending debate amongst film gurus over the divisive screen actor over whether he was a good actor or not. For many, it was impossible to tell whether Cage was actually very good at his job or one of the worst to ever grace a set. His performances make that easy to understand, as he is known for having moments of brilliance paired with hammy over-acted messes. This year, you could argue Adam has been the same.
Analysis of the Team USA star creates equally as baffling conundrums, and an easy place to begin is with his actual versus expected stats. Try and make sense of this:
A 2.59 ERA – good! A 5.04 xERA – bad! In correlation to what it seems like through the eye test, Adam is being bombarded with high-quality contact and hard-hit balls all over the yard, leading to an expectation that he should be getting rocked. But, his actual ERA is half of that – implying some good luck and defence behind him.
This seems to make sense, after all, we remember when Aaron Judge absolutely blistered a ninth-inning shot to centre field before it died on the warning track, and the hard-hit grounder that required some stellar glovework by Isaac Paredes and Taylor Walls to turn a double play and save the game. So, this all implies that Adam is actually bad, right?
This is where things get even more confusing, let’s take out defence and other factors beyond the pitcher’s control and look at FIP. Jason in 2023 has a 4.20 FIP, which leaves him in the bottom third of relievers this season. But then, his xFIP is lower at 3.80, which puts him in the top half of bullpen arms in this stat. This implies that he’s actually been getting a little unlucky. So what’s the truth?
Like the aforementioned Cage, you could probably make an argument for both sides, but I think the scales are tipping on the side of good. His strikeout percentage is still looking healthy, which is likely because his sweeper and newly weaponised changeup are proving to be among the most elite offerings in baseball, but keeping his stuff in the zone has been the issue. His walk percentage has gone up significantly from last year, as hitters are doing better at laying off his deadly breaking and off-speed pitches. This has led Adam to throw more fastballs in the zone, which, despite his elite spin rate on the pitch, is being honed in on by opposing batters and getting crushed. Against Adam, hitters are hitting .313 against his fastball while batting .171 and .075 against his changeup and sweeper respectively – which has played a big part in creating those scary moments late in games.
With Kyle Snyder’s track record of helping pitchers recover from command issues, Rays fans should expect the Jason Adam debate to be put to bed very soon, but make sure you keep an eye on your blood pressure in the meantime.
Leaving Us Guessing
What makes or breaks every story is its conclusion. A worry that has accompanied the Rays in their recent spell of success has been just that – encapsulated by their lack of success in the postseason. This does not necessarily mean winning the World Series every year, but something hasn’t quite clicked with the majority of Tampa Bay’s October runs.
In the history of the franchise, the Rays have been to the postseason eight times. In six of those eight attempts, they have been eliminated in either the Wild Card round or Divisional Series. Admittedly, this is a small sample, but their lifetime .452 postseason winning percentage leaves them 20th amongst active MLB teams in this department. With the Tropicana Field natives almost guaranteed a playoff spot this season (99.1% according to Fangraphs at the time of writing), it is key that Kevin Cash and company stay strict on their load management to ensure the key figures in the squad are healthy and rested come the Fall.
Can this be the year we get the fairy-tale ending? Or will we have another classic tale of heartbreak, only time will tell. One thing is for certain, though, the eyes of every baseball fan should be glued to their screens to see the spectacle for themselves. Load up on the popcorn folks – for better or for worse, this team will leave you on the edge of your seat.
