Half-Way Home
Time is always hurtling forward, seeming to go faster and faster with every passing year. Despite this season feeling like it is only just getting started, we are in fact, now over halfway through the 2023 campaign. At the 81-game mark, the Rays have put up a staggering 54-27 win-loss record – boiling down to a very satisfying two-out-of-three ratio and good for the best record in the major leagues.
While being on a slower pace in June than the previous two months, there is still a lot of buzz and excitement around this team. The halfway checkpoint means that most statistics and sample sizes are becoming far less extreme and a much more dependable source than they were in the first few weeks of the season. We can now look over some things and take stock of what this team is and what we should expect from it going forward. This article will take stock of both what we have seen, and what we should expect from this team going forward, as well as handing out some mid-season awards.
The Hitting
The difference in hitting between last year’s squad and this one has been staggering. Last season, the 2022 Tampa Bay Rays were only able to produce an ominous 666 runs across the season – averaging 4.11 runs per game. This put them in the bottom 10 teams in baseball. However this year, the same team has put up 451 runs already, the second most in baseball and have an average of 5.57 runs per game. This is not a revelation to anyone, but adding almost an extra run and a half per game is extremely significant in trying to win ballgames.
What has caught many by surprise this year was that a line-up that was uninspiring and meek a year ago did not seem to undergo any significant changes between last season and this one. In terms of moves, Kevin Kiermaier was fully usurped by Jose Siri in centre field and Yandy Diaz made the full-time move to first base, yielding more significant playing time for Isaac Paredes, but neither of those moves class as significant additions.
Staying with Erik Neander’s tendency to play with the toys available at home and only buying new ones when necessary, the Rays were banking on reinforcements from a now healthy Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, as well as hoping for more positive results from fringe big-leaguers – Josh Lowe and Luke Raley.
While the Rays have not been able to reap the benefits of a healthy Brandon Lowe, who has continued to be plagued with back issues, every other player the team has banked on has paid tremendous dividends. Siri has already hit more home runs this season than he has in his entire major league career pre-2023, going from a meagre 75 wRC+ last season to a very respectable 129. Josh Lowe and Luke Raley have been putting barrel to baseball with tremendous ease, having 76th and 98th percentile barrel rates respectively.
And where to begin with the new franchise poster boy, Wander? The Dominican wonder kid has been stellar so far this season, putting up all-star-level production despite not being one of the more powerful hitters on the roster.
The strategy has been clear from Kevin Cash’s line-ups this season: Let the on-base specialists, Diaz and Franco, get themselves on the basepaths and let the sluggers like Arozarena, Paredes and Raley get them home. This is a plan that has proven very effective thus far, perhaps best illustrated by Randy’s 54 RBIs this year already.
Despite being a completely intangible quality, Arozarena needs to be in the big moments to shine the brightest. This proved to be true in the 2020 postseason and the World Baseball Classic this past spring and remains the case here in the 2023 regular season – cementing him in the third or fourth spots for Cash’s optimal line-up. A .323 batting average and 148 wRC+ with runners in scoring position is the perfect middle-of-the-order bat, and the Rays are lucky enough to have just that.
The hitting core has occasionally run into some dry spells at the plate, but a clearer sense of each player’s role within the offense, as well as a now wiser and more experienced set of position players have seen the Rays take a giant step up in production this year. There does not seem to be any signs of this slowing down. The prospect of an injury-free Brandon Lowe returning soon gives Chad Mottola and company even more potential thump and versatility that will keep any pitcher nervous down the stretch.
The Pitching
The Rays have created their entire organisational reputation on creating elite pitchers seemingly out of nowhere year after year. Often they take arms that have struggled with other organisations only to find and exploit a quality that is unique to them and use it to get the better of hitters.
More often than not, Erik Neander and his staff have found success by piecing together a relatively cheap bullpen by staying away from ‘brand-name’ pitchers and acquiring relatively unknown quantities that can confuse hitters with a multitude of arm angles and pitch repertoires that range from overarm fireballers to submarining slider specialists that will create absurd movement and spin rates on their pitches.
In the Neander/Cash era, the organisation have been particularly conservative with their starting pitchers. They would often pull their starter and avoid the third time through the order penalty. The Rays have been perceived to place little value in traditional pitching roles and expectations – innovating with pitcher usage techniques like the opener and aggressively exploiting platoon advantages wherever possible before the three batter minimum. But yet, this season looked like the Rays were set to make a return to the traditional starting rotation setup.
A core group of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Zach Eflin, Jeffrey Springs and Tyler Glasnow were expected to be one of the top rotations in baseball and were all used to starting without an opener to routinely go five to seven innings. Unfortunately, this would not go to plan. Glasnow was injured in Spring Training, meaning that the Rays had to pivot to Josh Fleming – a not as reliably elite pitcher that would often benefit from an opener in front of him. Then a brutal 1-2 punch of Rasmussen and Springs being injured long-term would mean a more ‘typically Rays’ pitching setup was required.
Bullpen inning usage is suddenly far more crucial. As of the time of writing, the Rays are just one third of an inning behind the A’s in most innings pitched by relievers this season. 46.3% of Tampa Bay’s innings are covered by the ‘pen – the highest percentage in MLB.
With that said, the starting pitching has still been tremendous even when injured. Rays starters have the lowest ERA of any rotation in the big leagues. They also have the lowest FIP and xFIP, so all signs point to them being elite. McClanahan and Eflin have both been outstanding, with the former being a strong contender to start for the AL in the All-Star Game next month. Glasnow has returned from injury and has slowly started to return to his 2021 form. Top prospect Taj Bradley has stepped up from AAA and has shown many signs of promise, if a little inconsistent.
Despite perceptions, the bullpen is also doing far better than the eye test may have you believe, and you can find more about that in last week’s article. Rays pitching as a staff is second in MLB in team ERA – behind the Astros by 0.01 points. So the pitching has been nothing short of lights out this season and the front office has done very well to adapt to the significant injury blows. There are reasons to believe it will get better too. The Rays are reported to be expecting to aggressively pursue improvements at the trade deadline, and pitching depth is likely at the top of their shopping list. That, coupled with the expectation that Rasmussen and former all-star Andrew Kittredge will be returning in the coming months, the expectations can rightly be set very high in the second half.
Extra Bases – Giving and Taking Away
As previously discussed here at RBLR, the Rays have also been very good baserunners. They have led the American League in Fangraphs baserunning value, but as well as taking the extra base while running — they are just as good at preventing extra-base hits while fielding.
An under-appreciated part of Wander Franco’s game is his fielding ability at the shortstop position. He currently leads any player in MLB this season with 10 outs above average and is personally responsible for preventing eight runs from scoring compared to an average fielder according to Baseball Savant.
Margot and Siri have also proven to be plus-plus fielders – making three outs above average each too. Brandon Lowe is also an above-average second baseman when on the field, leading to a very impressive fielding core.
The only player that has appeared to be a large negative by OAA is, surprisingly, Taylor Walls – a player that is primarily known for his glovework. For reasons that are not quite certain, Walls is a curious case of a player that passes all the eye tests for being a Gold Glove caliber player, but is hated by defensive metrics. That is a study for another day, but it could be considered an indicator that defensive metrics still are not 100% a finished product and are not completely reliable at measuring an art with so many variables attached. But, for now, even if we stick with the simple eye test, the Rays mostly play a high-energy and electric style of defence that often results in great plays all over the diamond, so there should not be concerns in this area too.
Midsummer Winners
Last week we discussed movies and blockbuster narratives that have emerged this season so far, now is the time for award season as I would to present the following awards:
Biggest Surprise – Luke Raley
Luke Raley has been an absolute revolution for this year’s Rays team. This was discussed more last week, but Raley has been one of the most consistent power hitters in baseball this season – barrelling the ball at a rate that can only be rivaled by the very best in the game. He is getting big hit after big hit and has proven to be the missing left-handed power bat the Rays craved over the offseason.
Moment of the Year (So Far) – Randy Land’s Debut
This may not be the expected choice for this category, but this was a special moment for this franchise. For various reasons, this team has struggled to have consistent attendance numbers over the past decade, often being the butt of many jokes from the wider baseball fandom around the lack of fans in the Trop. There sometimes seemed to be a disconnect between the executive and the fanbase, but not anymore.
On May 5th, the Rays decided that they had a superstar within their midst and decided to take advantage in the best way possible. They opened a brand new section in Tropicana Field – Randy Land. Situated in the left field seating area, right behind the section’s name sake – Arozarena, fans can sit in ‘Randy Land’, where you can get special Randy merchandise and if the Team Mexico sensation hits a home run, all fans in the section receive a free drink.
Top of the first in Randy Land’s very first appearance, Arozarena did what he did best. He lived up to the bright lights and big moments and immediately rewarded the fans with a home run. The Trop was electric for this moment in a way it hasn’t been in quite some time. Randy, Wander and this Rays core have done excellent work this season to start bringing fans back to the yard and this moment may prove to be the catalyst in what could be a major attendance uptick.
Cy Young – Shane McClanahan
This isn’t a Rays exclusive Cy Young award, this is the American League Cy Young Award. Sugar Shane leads the AL in ERA and has an even 100 strikeouts over 95 innings so far this season. MLB have put him #1 on their pitcher power ranking list and is a favourite to start the All-Star Game. He has been lights out and is definitely in the conversation for the big award if he can keep things up. This is a similar story to last season, however, and needs to make sure he doesn’t tire and lose effectiveness in the dog days of August and September to avoid the same mistakes as the prior season.
MVP – Randy Arozarena
Franco and Diaz were also in the conversation for this award, but I decided to go with Randy based on his value in the big moments this season. As mentioned earlier, Randy has been electric in high-leverage opportunities, is in the running to be a starter in the outfield for the All-Star Game and has even invited himself to the Home-Run Derby. He has inspired his own section and iconic celebration move. The arm-crosser is not only an electric player, but is the biggest counterpoint to anyone that says the Rays don’t have any ‘stars’ on the team. He is perhaps the most marketable and charismatic player the Rays have ever had, and is the rightful face of the revolution in St Petersburg the past few years – and long may he reign!
