Away to Louisville City Preview
Date: Saturday October 14, 2023
Kickoff Time: 7:30 pm EST at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, KY
Records: Tampa Bay Rowdies (60 pts 18W-6D-9L); Louisville City FC (50 pts 14W-8D-11L)
Standings: The Rowdies are 2nd in the East and LouCity are 5th
The Rowdies played Eastern Conference leaders Pittsburgh Riverhounds this past weekend and saw why they are also first in the league overall. Now, in their last game of the regular season, Tampa Bay wants to get back on track and take some revenge on a perennial rival, which pulled out a sneaky win in the reverse fixture. Tune into ESPN+ to watch the game on Saturday!
For the Rowdies, this is mostly dead rubber. Does it seem that way?
This is a phrase thrown around a lot. Especially in American soccer, there are lots of games to be played by teams who can’t qualify for playoffs, but won’t get relegated, toward the end of the season. In this case, the Rowdies cannot end up anywhere other than second place in the East of the USL. They cannot catch last week’s opponents Pittsburgh, and cannot be caught, either.
The only possible permutation is for a game that is extremely hypothetical at this point in time: if the Rowdies finish below Western Conference leaders Sacramento Republic on points, and they were to play each other in the USL Championship Final, that should mean it would be hosted in California. While every club wants the most advantages they can possibly get, both teams have steps to go before that could ever come into play.
Louisville City is a huge rival for the Tampa Bay Rowdies in recent history. They have traded back and forth the first place spot in the Eastern Conference and thusly a place in the USL Championship Final. There is a lot of history between these two clubs, and possibly even some bad blood at times.
However, for one reason or another, LouCity have taken a step back this year. While the Rowdies have earned second place come hell or highwater, the Boys in Purple are barely hanging on to a potential home field advantage in their first playoff game. They will have a lot more to play for in their final regular season fixture – and they will likely play like it, too.
While Tampa Bay has racked up more points over the last couple of weeks, one factor that is even more important has been injury returnees. All of the following players have faced spells on the sidelines in recent months and come back: Forrest Lasso, Yann Ekra, Jake Areman, Seb Dalgaard, Dayonn Harris, Aaron Guillen, and finally, Leo Fernandes. That is half a starting XI’s worth of guys that were missing. Leo was expected to be missing all year.
From a fan’s perspective, this game against Louisville City has that one possible implication in standings. But, to reiterate, the likelihood of points totals affecting both us and Sacramento together is extremely far off. Thinking that far ahead might be a fool’s errand. More immediate concerns arise – the most obvious of which is injuries.
The Rowdies will want to go into this final game looking to get everyone more minutes of game time to boost their fitness. At the same time, they will want to make sure they don’t lose anyone for the playoffs. If any readers are unaware, those games will remain single-elimination. Teams numbered one through eight will play each other in one-offs until a Western and Eastern champion are crowned.
Each of these games is the equivalent of a final, because if you lose, you’re out. Having everyone healthy for them will be of utmost importance for a fanbase in desperate need of the Big One. To be clear, the fact that the Rowdies are even in second in the East with the incredible injury issues and coaching turnover this season is remarkable. It speaks to good recruitment and planning. But, all of that will be forgotten down the line if they can’t win the trophy that has eluded this club. Everyone needs to be in the best possible position to win the USL Championship Final.
How will LouCity view this final game?
For the Boys in Purple, the table is still alive and changing. Not only can they jump up a spot to 4th, but they can also lose ground and drop to 6th. Taking full points will be crucial for this team to get the best possible position in the playoffs and any potential home games they can. It could not be more contrasting at least on paper ahead of kickoff.
Let alone all the implications related to beating an old rival, Louisville City will be coming out of the gates full steam ahead. Based on the above, it would probably be a good game to let them do that and sit back for the Rowdies. They can absorb LouCity’s attacks and counter if and when they see chances. Tampa Bay usually likes to play the protagonist; but, that really isn’t always necessary.
Against the Riverhounds last week, the Rowdies earned 72% possession. After giving up a goal within the first 30 seconds of the match, Tampa Bay spent the rest of the 89 minutes chasing their opponents’ lead and trying to force the issue. At that point, getting back into the game and possibly taking three points off of Pittsburgh could really change things in the table. Unfortunately, they only managed to concede again.
With that result in the past and therefore unchangeable, the Rowdies should take a leaf out of the Riverhounds playbook and aim to do the same thing. Score when they can – if the opportunity should arise – and otherwise let the other team do all the running. Pittsburgh under Bob Lilley are known for being a defense-first unit. Tampa Bay had a similar reputation under Neill Collins.
While Nicky Law has not had much time to instill in this team a certain flavor or style that would be different from the prior era, this season overall hasn’t been the best defensive display for the Rowdies. They’ve conceded 37 times in 33 games so far. While that might not seem like a huge discrepancy, there have been some notable lapses all season long for Tampa Bay.
Rather than belabor the point by listing examples – some of which may simply pop into the reader’s head anyway – I will take the chance to just say that getting players minutes in a defense-first orientation would serve multiple purposes. Putting all confidence into the backline before playoffs start is just one of those. As they say, defense wins trophies.
If the Rowdies can cut out the silly mistakes that fans have seen and shore up their back four or five with the necessary pieces in front of it, Connor Sparrow should be able to get his tenth clean sheet of the season. Beyond that, let the guys on form do their solo runs. There’s been some incredible individual play from Cal Jennings, JJ Williams, and Charlie Dennis this year. With Leo Fernandes looking to add his name to that list, the Green and Gold should keep one eye on LouCity and one eye on their next home game. Fans know it will be do or die.
Score Predictions from the RBLR Rowdies Podcast:
Carlos Rueda: 2-1 Loss
James Knowles: 1-1 Draw
Yurika Wheeler: 1-1 Draw
