Home vs. Las Vegas Lights Preview
Date: Saturday May 25, 2024
Kickoff Time: 7:30 pm EST at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg, FL
Records: Tampa Bay Rowdies (16 pts 4W-4D-2L); Las Vegas Lights (11 pts 3W-2D-6L)
Standings: The Rowdies are 5th in the East and Las Vegas are 9th in the West
This week has seen the Rowdies get knocked out of the US Open Cup only four days after a 5-0 win. Soccer is a hell of a sport. With over 50 shots in these two games, it can surely be said any troubles with chance creation are behind them. The problem has come down to finishing at times. This week, Las Vegas come to Al Lang Stadium. Make sure you’re there, too, to cheer the Green and Gold on!
Did you just 50 shots in two games?!
That’s right, me-from-ten-seconds ago. It was fifty-one shots in total. Of those, nineteen were on target. Not only that, the Rowdies only conceded thirteen shots in their last two games. Honestly, these are the types of numbers that should be winning matches. It’s unfortunate that soccer is in general low-scoring because the distribution of converted shots was definitely skewed.
Against FC Tulsa on Saturday, Tampa Bay put up a measly 21 shots. According to FotMob, this game also included 4 Big Chances for the hometown Green and Gold. The Rowdies were content to let their opponents from Oklahoma keep the ball. It seems manager Robbie Neilson wasn’t overly worried about the visitors being able to break down his charges.
Despite owning 64% of the possession, Tulsa put exactly 0 Big Chances on the board. (That doesn’t necessarily preclude a team from scoring; but, it is good to know.) Meanwhile, the Rowdies had put 4 actual goals up by the time the two teams went into the lockers for halftime. The only issue for Tampa Bay occurred in the second half.
Deep into the game, and after scoring an unlikely double, Forrest Lasso pulled up with an injury. This turned into his needing a substitution. Ultimately, he would miss out on the midweek game in the Open Cup vs. FC Dallas. His absence was not necessarily the reason that match went the other way. Fans can assume based on his form, however, that it didn’t help.
Following analysis provided by FC Dallas blog 3rd Degree, it was likely that the Texans were going to follow up their usual league play from MLS and sit back a bit more. They don’t tend to be the aggressors and they don’t need to maintain possession to stay in games. So it went against their second-tier opponents in the Open Cup Round of 16 in Florida.
The Rowdies bossed the game early on and created multiple good chances within the first ten minutes. Fans were buoyed and tried to instill in the players the confidence that was building in the stands. However, chances left on the table almost always come back to haunt you.
The first half of this match can be broken into three distinct segments. There were the first 15 minutes. Tampa Bay held the ball. They found space. They were tenacious. They could dribble past Dallas defenders or they could win the ball back in midfield and stifle any forward movements for the Toros. Nothing in the back of the net, though.
Then, the unthinkable happened. The Toros took a short corner. Jesus Ferreira, recently of the US men’s national team, carried the ball down the endline and closer to the side of the Rowdies’ 18-yard box. As the defense moved to close him down, Ferreira spotted Patrickson Delgado open at the top of the box. His left footed shot was perfectly placed to beat nearly all 11 men.
The second phase of the first half then began as momentum swung the way of the Texans. Within ten minutes, they had scored again. “Too easy” is a common refrain amongst coaches. It describes a situation in which one team scores (or comes close) without applying what seems like necessary effort. Dallas’ Logan Farrington was the benefactor of a goal that was simply “too easy” to score. The lack of reaction from the Rowdies’ defense was a major talking point.
The third phase picked up around the 35th minute, when momentum had swung back and Tampa Bay were in control again. This lasted most of the rest of the game as the Green and Gold chased the score. Standing between them was the indefatigable Maarten Paes. He is no small part of why the Rowdies could take 30 shots and only score from the penalty spot.
How much have Las Vegas changed so far in 2024?
Assuming Paes doesn’t make a last minute loan switch to the Las Vegas Lights for unknown reasons, the Man of the Match this weekend is unlikely to be a goalkeeper. His outstanding performance should go down as one of the best at Al Lang Stadium – if it didn’t sting the local supporters as much as it surely does.
That it took a penalty kick for the Rowdies to score against Dallas is indicative mostly of that one man. That they were able to break through so frequently without scoring is indicative of something else. Last week, this column noted the chance creation stats out of Tampa Bay for the month of April. They were absolutely outstanding.
There was a dip in those numbers for a couple of games. The first was an away match vs. Memphis played on a non-converted baseball field. The second in the league was a home loss vs. Birmingham Legion. This should rightly be chalked up to a level of exhaustion that followed the roller-coaster fixture between the two teams four days earlier in the Open Cup.
With the month of May coming to a close for the Rowdies this weekend, it seems as though that was just a blip, an aberration one can attribute to other factors. Both Open Cup games and the home win vs. FC Tulsa were masterclasses in how this team wants to break down their opponents. Results thereafter, of course, are not a guarantee.
Enter the Lights. This is a team that has been a veritable punching bag for several years. The fans in Nevada didn’t appreciate that; but, the ownership seemed disinterested in making any moves that would improve the situation. There is some light on the horizon, however, as a new owner has stepped forward.
Former Major League Baseball player and Dominican national Jose Bautista bought the club and has injected some real hope into it. That hope has come in the form of both interest and, possibly more importantly, some much-needed cash. Yes, Joey Bats has decided that helping a struggling soccer team reach new heights is his new project – and made waves doing so.
In came Dennis Sanchez to manage the squad. Sanchez was formerly an assistant with the Charleston Battery and then Austin FC’s second team in MLS Next Pro. This is his first head coaching position, though. Most of the roster was brought in shortly before the 2024 season began. While everything is more positive now, it’s still hard to put things together on the fly.
Thus, the Lights have boh punched above their weight and been knocked back down a few times. Starting the season with two losses, they then earned four wins in five games through March and April. After that, it looked more like the old team. Sanchez has the unenviable position of turning this cobbled-together roster into a cobbled-together formation.
So far, his blend of three or four notable USL veterans, including former Rowdies keeper Raiko Arozarena, and mostly youth players around or under 20-years-old has not been enough. It seems unlikely they will have the nous to prevent Tampa Bay from doing what they have for two games in a row. What will be most important naturally is to see how many shots find their way in.
Score Predictions from the RBLR Rowdies Podcast:
Carlos: 2-0 W
James: 1-1
Yurika: 2-1 W
Guest: 3-0 W from Liz Wiederecht (@LizzietTheLi0n)
