Echoes of the Past: Can Tampa Bay Keep Stamkos Again?
It’s the biggest question for the Tampa Bay Lightning this offseason. Sure, they might make trades or acquire some outside players, but there’s really only one question that Bolts fans are most invested in: Will Steven Stamkos re-sign with the team?
The second the season ended hockey fans began asking questions about what Stamkos would choose to do in free agency, forcing Lightning fans to ask hard questions. Questions like “Will the team be able to bring him back” or “Did we just watch the captain’s final season?”
But maybe something that might help calm the nerves of fans is that we’ve been down this road before.
It might be easily forgotten, but eight years ago it seemed like Stamkos was likely going to leave the Lightning. Actually, it seemed almost certain that he was going to leave.
What was that situation like? Was it similar to the one going on now? Well, let’s go back in time and review the last time Stamkos was a free agent and compare it to today.
What Happened?
It was the summer of 2016. Jon Cooper had just finished his 4th season as head coach. Stars like Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov hadn’t even hit their prime. Brayden Point was only a minor-league prospect. Andrei Vasilevskiy was simply known as Ben Bishop’s backup. Julien Brisebois wasn’t the general manager, instead it was Hall of Famer Steve Yzerman.
The Lightning were a year removed from falling in the Stanley Cup Finals to the Chicago Blackhawks, and only a few weeks removed from falling just one game short of going back to the finals, losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Usually losing in Game 7 of the conference finals would be both the biggest news and biggest source of heartbreak for a fanbase. But in this case, it wasn’t. The biggest story was Stamkos.
Stamkos had nearly missed the entire 2016 playoffs due to having surgery after being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. He only played in one playoff game, the Game 7 loss to the Penguins.
That game was soul-crushing. Not only because we watched our captain come back just to lose a win-or-go-home game, but now we had to consider the possibility that this was Stamkos’ final game in a Lightning sweater before becoming an unrestricted free agent.
Up until this point, Stamkos had been with the Lightning for eight seasons. While there were some low moments, such as a heavily criticized rookie campaign and serious injuries like a broken tibia and the previously mentioned thoracic outlet syndrome which also caused some blood clotting issues, there were many incredible moments. Stamkos had been named to four all-star games, had been on the cover of the 2012 edition of EA’s NHL video game and had won two Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophies, one of which came because of him scoring a franchise record 60 goals in a single season.
Stamkos had firmly established himself as one of the better players in the NHL. When a player with that reputation suddenly becomes available on the free agency market, you can bet that a bunch of teams will be pursuing you.
And that’s exactly what happened. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, Vancouver Canucks and Montreal Canadiens were all rumored to be gunning for Stamkos.
One thing that gave these guys leverage over the Lightning was the fact that they were able to offer Stamkos more money. The Lightning had offered him a $8.5 million per year deal. But teams like the Red Wings and Sabres, who had cap space, were reportedly offering him deals worth $10 million per year.
At the time, the frontrunner was going to be the Maple Leafs. Toronto is his hometown and the Maple Leafs had also brought in several respected people to run things. Lou Lamoriello had been named as the team’s general manager and the team had just paid a ton of money to bring Mike Babcock in as their head coach (this is when he was regarded as an elite coach in the league and not presumed as a player-abusing weirdo.) Not to mention in a city like Toronto where hockey is king, Stamkos would be able to make so much money through off-the-ice ventures.
Reportedly, the Maple Leafs went all out in their meeting with Stamkos. Not only was team ownership and front office executives there, but the team also brought in Canadian Tire CEO Michael Medline and the mayor of Toronto John Tory.
When other teams are offering more money and teams like the Maple Leafs are putting together some of the craziest pitches of all time, you can understand why many Lightning fans were afraid Stamkos was going to leave. But as it turns out, those fears were unwarranted.
Two days before he was set to become a UFA, Stamkos agreed to re-sign with the Lightning. It was official, the captain wasn’t going anywhere! And looking back at this moment years later, this was one of the most important moments in franchise history.
In the eight years since he re-signed, Stamkos’ reputation changed from a great player to the best player in franchise history. He made more All-Star teams, broke several team records and of course, captained the team to back-to-back cups. Do the Lightning achieve all that success if he chooses to sign somewhere else?
Similarities and Differences
When researching Stamkos’ 2016 free agency period, it is shocking how similar that situation was to the one the Lightning face today.
First of all, the overall story is the same. The Lightning may lose the face of the franchise, its captain, and a beloved member of the organization.
Like today, those within the Lightning clearly wanted him back. Yzerman specifically said to the media he and the team “We’re doing all we can to sign him.” Other Lightning players showed that they hoped he would stay because when speaking with the media after he announced he was coming back, they showed a feeling of relief. Brian Boyle said in an interview with ESPN “We couldn’t be more thrilled to have him back. He’s our captain, our leader.”
The main thing that could sway Stamkos now was the same reason many fans were afraid he wouldn’t re-sign back then: the team can’t offer him a ton of money. Just like how the team couldn’t match the $10 million per year offers of other teams, the Lightning are slammed up against the cap right now and can’t offer him too much. And just like last time, Stamkos is still a great player who teams are willing to throw a ton of money at.
Not every aspect of the current situation is the same as the 2016 one, however. In 2016 the team and its fans wanted Stamkos to come back because they were a young team who still had a shot of finally getting over the hump and winning the Stanley Cup. They needed to re-sign him because it gave them the best chance to finally get over that hump. Now the team has gotten over that hump several times. Instead, this is a situation where many people want to keep him around to keep the momentum going and to say thank you for all the years of service and success he brought to the team.
The risks of re-signing Stamkos are different as well. In 2016 the main concern with bringing him back was his injury history. As previously said, he had just dealt with blood clotting issues and there was real concern if these constant injuries would stop his production. Today the main concern is his age. Stamkos is 34 and getting close to the time that elite players begin to slow down. So it is questionable if he will be able to keep up his elite play for much longer.
Final Thoughts
While there are differences, the biggest takeaway from the previous Stamkos free agency period is something that will both comfort stressed Lightning fans and has an equal chance to age horribly: Stamkos has a love for the Tampa community and the Lightning organization. He showed that he is willing to take less money if he feels the situation is right.
That said, Stamkos might not see the current Lightning situation as the right fit for him. However, bringing in one of his favorites in Ryan Mcdonagh is hopeful.
So, will what happened in 2016 repeat? It’s uncertain. All we can do now is hope that like in 2016, Stamkos will be saying to the press: “I am excited to move forward with the Lightning.”
