RBLR Rays Roundtable 2025 #1 – Spring Training Preview
The dawn of the 2025 Rays season, and Spring Training, is also a beginning for us here at RBLR! We’ve assembled a group of talented writers to offer up insight & analysis throughout the season to showcase the most interesting Rays topics every week.
Our writers come from a variety of different backgrounds: some obsessively study the game from a fan’s perspective – others have real world experience working roles in baseball.
What each of them have is a unique voice, and we hope to create a weekly resource where you can gain knowledge, learn a new fact, or maybe see a new perspective that encourages your own.
This space will evolve throughout the season, so each week might be a different ride than the last!
With all of that said: to celebrate the opening of Spring Training, we asked our contributors: “What’s one storyline you’re excited to follow during Spring Training and why?”
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Will Mason Montgomery Be A Bullpen Stud?
Mason Montgomery made an immediate impression in his brief MLB stint, tying Drew Rasmussen for the team lead in Stuff+ at 121 and pacing the Rays with a Pitching+ of 122. Over nine innings, he posted an eye-popping 47% whiff rate. While the sample size is small, pairing that rate with his elite Stuff+ metrics suggests Montgomery has the tools to sustain dominance over a larger workload.
As a prospect, Montgomery always had a good fastball, but it has reached a new level since his transition to a relief role. His velocity jumped from sitting at 95 mph to nearly 98 mph, paired with above-average extension, resulting in an elite 119 Stuff+ for the pitch. Montgomery generates above-average spin, and thanks to the spin’s direction, he produces some of the best ride in baseball. His fastball’s average vertical drop is -9.9, tied for the second-lowest in MLB last year. For comparison, Pete Fairbanks (-10.8) and Mason Miller (-10.4) had slightly more drop. With less vertical movement, Montgomery’s fastball is both elite and deceptive, making it a nightmare for hitters.
What prevented Montgomery from sticking as a starter was his lack of a reliable third pitch; his changeup never developed enough to complement his arsenal. However, as a reliever, that third pitch is no longer necessary. He can fully lean on his always-above-average slider, which boasts a 127 Stuff+. Montgomery’s slider is classified as a gyro slider – a tight-spinning pitch with higher velocity and less break than traditional sliders. It pairs effectively with his fastball due to its late-breaking movement.
With two elite pitches and a deceptive delivery, Montgomery is poised to rack up strikeouts in 2025. He has all the tools to dominate as a left-handed weapon out of the Rays’ bullpen this season.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport): Curtis Mead’s Roster Competition
I think the most fascinating storyline this spring has to be Curtis Mead. A former top-20 prospect, Mead has gotten off to a subpar start in his big league career, posting just a 78 wRC+ in his first 224 career plate appearances and struggling to carve out a consistent role. This spring, Mead will have an opportunity to earn a spot on the bench as a left-hander masher, competing with non-roster invitee Eloy Jimenez for the final bench spot.
Mead was recalled for a second stint on July 20th when Yandy Diaz had to deal with a personal matter. After a flurry of trades created more opportunities for playing time, While it’s a small sample size, Mead excelled in 17 plate appearances against left-handed pitching: slashing .400/.471/.467 with a 179 wRC+. This late-season surge leaves room for optimism heading into 2025.
Mead’s two biggest challenges in the majors thus far have been his defense (-4 DRS last season) and his inability to translate his power (career .068 ISO). However, he has excellent plate skills, impressive bat speed, and will be playing in a home ballpark conducive to his skill set. For these reasons, I’m completely buying into Mead’s stock and anticipate that he will win the final roster spot this spring.
Jake Shutters (@PEPIG0AT): How Will The Rays Use Carson Williams?
A lot can change in four years. A lot has changed in four years. If you were to ask anyone if the Rays would potentially be auditioning a new top-prospect shortstop to take over a position that has been severely lacking since the middle of 2023, they would think something had gone horribly wrong with the “can’t miss” top-prospect shortstop from that time. Well, something did.
Looking back at the former shortstop’s playing time in 2021 Spring Training provides clues about how the Rays might handle Carson Williams. Going into Spring Training 2021, Wander Franco was the #1 prospect in baseball and had not yet reached Double-A as a 20-year-old (he likely would have if the 2020 minor league season hadn’t been canceled). As much as Willy Adames was labeled “the guy,” the Rays kept giving Franco opportunities. In 2021, Franco appeared in 16 of the 28 spring training games and had 37 plate appearances. After dominating Triple-A for a few months, Franco was called up and quickly claimed the everyday shortstop role.
The Rays may find themselves in a similar situation with Williams this season. Williams will almost certainly start the year in Durham, much like Franco in 2021. If the Rays push Williams’ workload this spring, it could signal their intentions for him, just as it did for Franco. The Rays know what they have in Taylor Walls and Jose Caballero, and with Ha-Seong Kim starting the season on the shelf, expect Williams to see plenty of action. The Rays appear to be making plans for his takeover of the shortstop position, both for the present and the future.
Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10): Can Jimenez’s Power Earn Him A Spot?
All signs point to a battle for a bench spot between Curtis Mead and Eloy Jimenez. Both players have high ceilings but offer different offensive profiles. While this battle isn’t entirely dependent on their spring performances, a key factor may also hinge on Christopher Morel’s power resurgence heading into 2025.
Jimenez can bring something the Rays sorely lacked in 2024: power. The team ranked 28th in the league with just 147 home runs. Jimenez’s performance has been criticized, but much of the inconsistency can be attributed to injuries during his two worst seasons (2024 and 2021). The situation in Tampa Bay presents a fresh opportunity for him. Unlike his time in Chicago, where he was expected to be a primary run producer, Jimenez would likely serve as a role player with the Rays, allowing him to return to an approach that suits him better. Over the years, Jimenez has shown growth, with his strikeout rate declining from 26.6% to a career-low 19.0%, roughly 3% better than league average. His hard-hit rate consistently ranks in the 90th percentile, and he demonstrated his power potential early in his career, hitting a career-high 31 home runs as a rookie.
Curtis Mead, on the other hand, offers a contrasting skillset. He excels as a bat-to-ball hitter, prioritizing contact and getting on base. Mead boasts a major league contact rate of 79.2%, compared to Jimenez’s 71.8%, with league average sitting at roughly 76% last season. Additionally, Mead’s ability to make contact outside the zone is impressive, as he connects on swings outside the zone 14% more often than Jimenez. However, his upside is tempered by his well-below-average hard-hit rate, which doesn’t address the power deficiency in the Rays lineup.
While Mead’s contact-oriented approach makes him a reliable on-base option, Jimenez’s combination of power and improved strikeout rates positions him as the more impactful choice for the Rays. Even with his below-average contact rate, Jimenez avoids striking out at a crippling level and could fill the right-handed bench slot while providing the power upside the team desperately needs. In my opinion, Jimenez is the better option to secure the bench role, with the potential to grow into an everyday player.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a rotating cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
