Improving & Maintaining: Bucs 2025 Free Agency Preview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers once again made the playoffs in 2024, but did not advance past the Wildcard round. With the NFC South seemingly starting to catch up and young quarterbacks like Bryce Young in Carolina and Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta starting to find their footing, the question on many Bucs fans minds headed into the offseason will be: How do we improve the defense and maintain the offense?
It’ll be a tall task for GM Jason Licht and the crew, but Licht’s impressive tenure lends him some credibility. For the purposes of speculation, below I’ve provided my offseason wish list the Krewe to deliver on come March and April.
To join contenders in the NFC, there are going to be a couple of important steps before free agency even starts, especially regarding cap space. Headed into 2025, the Bucs already sit at $5.6 million dollars in space, which would not even be enough space to sign draft picks, much less retain any free agents.
The Bucs have been among the best in the league at finding room under the salary cap, and they managed to bring back Mike Greenberg, an assistant GM who has been lauded as a cap “wizard”. That being said, it’s not unreasonable to see an extension for star QB Baker Mayfield, coming off of the best season in his career and one of the best in franchise history. He only has 2 years remaining on his deal, and an extension followed by a restructure would give them more flexibility in 2025 while ensuring their future at the position.
Similarly, an extension and restructure for future Hall of Fame receiver Mike Evans makes sense as well, as he only has one year remaining on his contract, and shifting some of that money into 2026 or 2027 allows them to add talent to the roster.
All-pro Left Tackle Tristan Wirfs has five years remaining on his contract, so don’t expect an extension, but his $31 million cap hit is second on the team, and the team might look to restructure as well.
All in all, the Bucs could create up to $59 million in cap space for 2025 for a total of about $64 million in space, which should be plenty for an adrenaline shot for the top-heavy roster.
Super Bowl LIX had some very important takeaways. The main lesson (once again…) is that defenses, and particularly effective pass rushers, win championships. The Eagles pass rush was so good that they didn’t need to blitz. That’s not a joke. They did not blitz on a single snap all night, and produced one of the highest pressure rates on the whole season. The result? Patrick Mahomes had the worst game of his career, outside of the garbage time touchdowns.
Coincidentally for Tampa Bay, a certain four time first team All-Pro and Defensive Player of the Year requested to leave Cleveland to kick off February. Am I saying that a trade is in the works? No. Is it likely? Not even a little bit according to Vegas.
What I am saying is that this could be one of the most important moves in the history of the franchise. When you have any sliver of an opportunity to add a star of this magnitude at one of your weakest positions on the field, you absolutely have to do everything in your power to make it happen.
We’ve seen the Bucs do it before. Between Tom Brady and Simeon Rice, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett, even Jon Gruden, sometimes you have to go out and get it.
The biggest question for most people would be, what will it cost?
Khalil Mack, a 2nd rounder and a 7th rounder went to Chicago from Oakland in exchange for two 1st round picks, a third round pick, and a sixth round pick. A similar amount of value can be assumed for Garrett, but one could assume a bidding war will break out should Cleveland open up to the idea of a deal (they remain static in not moving him).
If you ask me, the Bucs should give Cleveland whatever they want. Garrett moves the needle, and puts the team within statistical error of a Super Bowl. I would argue that he solves nearly every defensive issue from 2024. That being said, here is what a potential deal may look like.
CLE Receives:
2025 1st Round Pick (19 overall)
2025 3rd Round Pick (84 overall)
2026 1st Round Pick
2026 6th Round Pick
TB Receives:
EDGE Myles Garrett
There are some younger players that could be added, including a running back, whether it’s Rachaad White or Sean Tucker, and there’s a good chance there are more picks on the move.
Now it’s time to spend the money we “created” earlier. There’s a pretty long list of Bucs primed for free agency this year. At the top of the list, guys I think absolutely need to return next year are Chris Godwin and Lavonte David.
Godwin was primed for a career year this season before another devastating injury. With the WR market ever inflating, his value could exceed $23 million according to Spotrac next season, but keeping Godwin and Evans together should be pivotal, as it has been one of the most productive duos in the league when they are both healthy.
Lavonte David is 35 years old now, and the signs of age are sadly beginning to show. The Bucs legend could very well retire this season, but if he wishes to return this year, the Bucs should be open to that. Let OG retire when and where he wants to. If he wants a league minimum contract for the next 10 years to be Udonis Haslem, so be it. That being said, he should fetch around $6.7 million according to Spotrac this season, higher than 2023 but lower than 2024.
Outside of those two, the rest of the free agents are rotational guys. At the right price I would be ok with letting any of them come back for the sake of continuity, and I’m not super concerned as most of them will be league minimum.
Ben Bredeson, the starting right guard, was a sort of reclamation project and he turned into an average guard, but I believe he could be replaceable. In his favor though, continuity is one of the most important aspects for an offensive line, so I would be perfectly happy with him coming back next year
Anthony Nelson was a late round pick and has turned into a reliable contributor, but in a desperate league he may get priced out of his uniform in Tampa.
There are of course exceptions. There are a few upcoming free agents who I believe should not come back in 2025.
Chase Edmonds wasn’t active for any game in 2024, and his injury history combined with his age likely means he leaves or retires soon, especially with the logjam at running back.
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is one of a few misses at the top of the draft, especially at edge rusher, and he may get paid elsewhere but I would be happy to see him go.
Sterling Shepard turned into a drop machine with Godwin out and Jalen McMillan was a perfectly good WR2 once Mike Evans returned.
K.J. Britt was not good last year by any stretch of the truth, and the linebacker room as a whole needs upgrades.
I expect it to shake out something like this:
| Player | Contract | Cap Hit |
|---|---|---|
| WR Chris Godwin | 3 years, $67,586,484 | $22,110,333 |
| ILB Lavonte David | 1 year, $6,728,100 | $2,253,000 |
| LB J.J. Russell | 1 year, $1,267,500 | $1,267,500 |
| OLB Shaq Barrett | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| QB Kyle Trask | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| S Kaevon Merriweather | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| CB Tavierre Thomas | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| C Robert Hainsey | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| S Mike Edwards | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| OG Iosua Opeta | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| OG Ben Bredeson | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
| DT Greg Gaines | 1 year, $1,197,000 | $1,197,000 |
There are certainly plenty of external options for the Bucs with nearly $40 million in cap space. With their biggest needs at edge rusher, Cornerback, and Inside Linebacker, free agency could heat up quickly.
This is an extremely talented edge rusher class. With aging superstars like Khalil Mack, Haason Reddick, Matt Judon, Demarcus Lawrence, it’s not a matter of if for the Bucs, but who. This is their biggest hole on the field, especially if they can’t manage a Myles Garrett blockbuster. But there’s plenty of young talent as well. Former Heisman finalist Chase Young, Charles Omenihu, and Josh Sweat, who had 2.5 sacks in the Super Bowl, are all in line for big paydays.
With Lavonte David turning 35, there are two paths at inside linebacker. The first option is finding someone on the younger side to learn from David and prepare for his retirement. There are a few options to fit that role. Tyrel Dodson and Willie Gay Jr. are each 26 years old, as are Devin Bush and Devin White. Dodson and Gay are a bit pricier than the league minimums that Bush and White are set for, but perhaps Devin White is primed for a homecoming of sorts and he finds his footing again.
The other option is to go all in for one more year of Lavonte David and pursue Bobby Wagner who is nearly 35 as well. Wagner has been a surefire superstar for many years, and even helped end Tampa’s season with Washington this year. While the flashier option, it’s certainly risky and much more expensive.
A secret third option could include pursuing hybrid Linebacker Isaiah Simmons, a former top pick who has floundered in the league. His roles have shifted from Inside Linebacker to Safety, and his flexibility could be interesting to see in the Bowles defense.
Perhaps a reunion could also be in store at Cornerback as well. Carlton Davis headlines the free agent list at CB, after a career year in Detroit. When healthy he’s been pretty good, and the Bucs could use another veteran presence in the secondary. The primary issue has been health. He has not played a full season in his seven year career.
Some other notable names include Charvarius Ward, Stephon Gilmore, Asante Samuel Jr., and D.J. Reed but I wouldn’t expect them to spend a ton of money on a defensive back, as Bowles has yet to do so in his time in Tampa. Some lower priced options include St. Pete native, Lakewood High School graduate, and UCF alumni Shaquill Griffin, as well as Jeff Okudah, a former 3rd overall pick who has bounced around quite a bit.
There are two scenarios ahead. Scenario one, the Bucs go all in for 2025, make the miracle trade for Myles Garrett and go all in on the defense and front 7.
| EDGE Myles Garrett | TRADE | $4,963,225 |
| CB D.J. Reed | 4 year, $58,602,640 | $14,703,250 |
| DE Chase Young | 4 year, $70,171,852 | $17,315,500 |
| LB Isaiah Simmons | 1 year, $1,197,500 | $1,197,500 |
| RB Raheem Mostert | 1 year, $1,197,500 | $1,197,500 |
| OLB Haason Reddick | 1 year, $11,655,914 | $11,196,000 |
| OG Aaron Stinnie | 1 year, $1,197,500 | $1,197,500 |
| CB Shaquill Griffin | 1 year, $3,650,000 | $1,255,000 |
| S Justin Reid | 3 years, $51,195,225 | $17,437,000 |
| CB Jamel Dean | CUT | -$7,402,000 (+$6,852,000 Dead Money) |
| S Jordan Whitehead | CUT | -$4,500,000 |
In Scenario One, the front office goes all in on the next few years, much like they did in 2020 and 2021, and bring in multiple stars on defense to bring another Lombardi to One Buc Place. A 3-4 defense like Todd Bowles could get absolutely nuts with its pass rush schemes with this kind of ammo. Keeping together the top 5 offense from last season while building a formidable defense is the goal this year and this absolutely accomplishes the task before the draft, and with money to spare. While it does require extra sacrifices in getting rid of Dean and Whitehead, neither is worth the money they are owed in 2025. Scenario 1 means instant contention in a rapidly improving NFC.
Scenario two, they make upgrades all along the defense, while holding onto their draft capital.
| CB D.J. Reed | 4 year, $58,602,640 | $14,703,250 |
| DE Chase Young | 4 year, $70,171,852 | $17,315,500 |
| OG Aaron Stinnie | 1 year, $1,197,500 | $1,197,500 |
| DE Marcus Davenport | 1 year, $2,190,467 | $2,044,000 |
| LB Tyrel Dodson | 3 years, $15,075,387 | $5,206,000 |
Scenario 2, the more grounded option, sees the Bucs making some pass rush upgrades and bringing in a more highly priced ILB replacement for K.J. Britt, and they retain their draft picks to upgrade through a pretty impressive draft class. Scenario 2 doesn’t have the same Pomp and Circumstance as Scenario 1 but I think it’s good enough of a position for the Bucs to be in for the draft.
While it’s unlikely the Bucs step outside the box this offseason and make huge splashes, upgrades are necessary in nearly every position group on defense. To keep up with a potentially burgeoning NFC South, something drastic needs to be done if Bowles wants to return in 2026. But don’t count them out. The Bucs have made big splashes for instant title contention before both Super Bowls and they absolutely have the means this offseason.
Will Jason Licht pull off a second highway robbery, or will they stay the course and play it safer?
