RBLR Rays Roundtable #4 – Great Expectations
We are about three weeks away from the Rays playing a meaningful baseball game, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to be excited about now. Projections, prospects, and bounce-back candidates are on our minds this week.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Exceeding Expectations
The Tampa Bay Rays are going to overperform their win projections this season. Both Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA & FanGraphs are pinning them down to win 82 games this season. The Rays are fresh off an 80 win season, and they traded a few of their core players at the deadline.
While it might make sense to be a little pessimistic heading into the season, I believe this team has plenty of positive regression heading its way in addition to the return of some key contributors.
The Rays season was disjointed from the jump with major injuries to players for who the Rays had high hope or guys who were part of the offensive core. However, what plagued the Rays the most last season undoubtedly was RISP success. The team was 28th last season in wRC+ with RISP (83 wRC+), but also sported a league low BABIP with RISP (.268). This implies that there was more than likely some poor luck involved. Tampa Bay’s pitching started quite slow last season, running a 4.22 FIP (25th) over the first two months of the season.
Why be optimistic? Most important, the team has been relatively healthy so far in Spring Training. The RISP woes? Hitting with RISP is a very highly variable aspect of the game of baseball, but I wouldn’t expect another season of the league’s worst BABIP with RISP (yes, even worse than the White Sox).
The pitching? The Rays after the all-star break maintained the best ERA in the majors (3.06). Additionally, the return of two-time all-star Shane McClanahan and the newly-extended Drew Rasmussen will further raise the ceiling. McClanahan, through his first two Spring Training starts, has looked wonderful running a 21.1 K-BB% so far. Rasmussen was marvelous in his 28.2 innings of work in the bullpen late last season, pitching to the tune of a 1.35 FIP. With this pitching staff, the sky is the limit.
Having lineup continuity to begin the season will do wonders for this team, and I cannot wait to see what they’re able to achieve.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : The Most Intriguing Prospect in the Spring Breakout Game
The Rays’ Breakout game roster will have plenty of star power, but to me, the most interesting player is also the most infuriating – Brailer Guerrero. There is nothing Guerrero has done to annoy me; his profile is electric, his metrics and stats are outstanding, and his upside is as high as anyone in the Rays’ farm system. The frustration comes from the fact that he should be a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, but due to shoulder injuries, his MiLB career has been limited to just 126 stateside at-bats.
Because Guerrero has yet to reach A-ball, his elite bat speed and loud contact haven’t been seen by Rays fans, unless fans have made the trek to Port Charlotte to watch him in person. Widely regarded as one of the top prospects in a strong 2023 international free agent class, Guerrero had plus-plus raw power, an advanced feel for hitting, and a defensive package that projected him as a solid corner outfielder as he matures. His DSL debut was promising, showing loud contact in seven games before a labrum tear ended his season.
His stateside debut in 2024 was setting up for a promotion to full-season ball at Low-A, but another shoulder setback delayed his progress. His 2024 stat line offered both promise and concerns.
Reports indicated he was making hard contact, yet it rarely translated into real damage, as reflected by his .136 ISO. He posted a strong 155 wRC+, but that came with an unsustainable .464 BABIP. Even with Guerrero’s ability to generate hard contact that BABIP is completely unstainable particularly with a 50% groundball rate and a sub-20% line drive rate.
Still just 18, he remains highly regarded by evaluators despite the inherent risk in his profile with injuries. If Guerrero can stay healthy in 2025, he could rise quickly through the lower minors and up prospect rankings. His full-season debut will provide a more clear picture of him as he faces older and better competition.
As the youngest player on the Spring Breakout Roster, most fans will get their first glimpse of him on March 13th. And while I may be counting the days until I can buy a Carson Williams #7 jersey, I’m most excited to watch Brailer Guerrero’s play in the game.
Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10) : What to Expect from Christopher Morel
Christopher Morel is poised to bounce back in 2025. This past season was Morel’s worst since debuting in 2022; his batting average and OPS were career lows and, compared to 2023, there was a drop-off in power.
There are signs of Morel returning to his previous form and potentially exceeding it.
For starters, Morel had career-best K% and BB% in 2024. His K% has steadily fallen from 32.2% to 26.0% last season. While still below league average in the 24th percentile, he is trending in the right direction. Morel’s BB% has risen from his career low in 2023 at 8.4% to 10.0% in 2024, which is above league average in the 73rd percentile. His chase rate at 26.2% is above league average, and indicates room for improvement in his K% and BB%.
These are good trends for a hitter and typically come with success. Unfortunately, Morel seemed to be unlucky in 2024. His xBA was .227 compared to his actual at .196, xSLG at .407 and actual at .346, xwOBA at .318 and actual at .280. These are sizeable differences which once again show the opportunity for improvement. Morel also has elite bat speed in the 95th percentile, so we should see more hard-hit balls in 2025.
Morel’s raw power combined with starting the season with the Rays as he continues to learn the organization and work with Chad Mottola, should add up to a resurgent 2025.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Will Lowe Be Lifetime, or Long Gone?
At spring training, Brandon Lowe recently expressed his strong desire to become a lifetime Ray. That is a sentiment I wholeheartedly support as someone who absolutely loves him and considers him my favorite player on the team. Still, I am not getting my hopes up, given the team’s history and the fact that Lowe has a lot to prove this season.
When healthy, Lowe has flashed glimmers of his hitting prowess. It wasn’t too long ago — back in 2021 — when he played a career-high 149 games, hit 39 home runs, and drove in 99 runs. But that key phrase, “when healthy,” has always seemed to cast a shadow over him. His struggles to stay on the field have made him a somewhat polarizing player among Rays fans and a frequent name in trade rumors.
While the Rays picked up Lowe’s club option for this season, that does not guarantee he’ll finish the year in Tampa Bay, let alone fulfill his dream of being a lifetime Ray. No player is ever truly safe on the team, as every Rays fan knows. Lowe is also entering his eighth season with the Rays — a feat that makes him the longest tenured player on the team, but makes his age yet another consideration.
With the Rays heading into the season as a bit of a wildcard, their midseason standing will likely play a major role in any roster moves at the trade deadline. The AL East should be an interesting division to watch though, especially now with the Yankees dealing with an ever-growing list of injuries.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) – Teaching New Tricks
Spring training is always the best place to experiment and try new things, and the Rays certainly have done their fair share of experimenting this spring, putting players in new positions to add additional value and give them more opportunities to contribute this year. Here are some ones that stood out to me and how I think they can translate to the major league roster:
- Curtis Mead at first base: Mead has done everything right this spring and has been put in a position to get serious reps this season from the Rays. Mead has barely played first base in his tenure with the Rays, as his 4 innings there last season was the first time he played that position since 2022 (only 17 innings). Yandy Diaz is the Rays’ first baseman, but Mead getting more reps at first base can give him more opportunities to see the field and gain the reps he has been missing and is commanding this spring.
- Richie Palacios in center field: Marc Topkin reported that Palacios could be used in up to 6 different positions this season, and following this report, he stepped in at center field in game action. Additional support in the Rays’ arguably weakest position (and potentially a LHH CF stopgap as the Rays await the arrival of Chandler Simpson) would be huge, and if Palacios can be serviceable in the position he’s only played 61 innings in during his career, could make the Rays day to day lineup even more dynamic vs right handed pitching.
- Jose Caballero in center field: Another center field option, as the Rays look to add depth in the position, following the everyday, albeit chaotic tenure of Jose Siri. Caballero has legitimately never played an inning in center field in his entire career in pro ball, but attempting to expand his versatility is always a good thing and could end up being the thing that could save his roster spot upon the arrival of Ha-Seong Kim. You can never have too much versatility, and that’s certainly what the Rays see in trying to expand Jose Caballero’s game.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
