RBLR Rays Roundtable #6 – Spring Training Wrap-up
Spring Training is always filled with excitement, surprises, and, of course, overreactions. As the Rays gear up for Opening Day, there have already been key developments that could shape the season ahead – both good and bad.
From Shane McClanahan’s unfortunate setback to Curtis Mead’s emergence as a potential breakout star, the roster is taking shape in unexpected ways. Meanwhile, Yandy Díaz remains an underappreciated force, and the Rays’ depth continues to impress.
Here’s a look at the biggest storylines coming out of camp and what they mean for the 2025 season.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : McClanahan’s return put on hold
“He’ll be Shane McClanahan.”
This was a quote from Drew Rasmussen in a story published on MLB.com on March 21. Rasmussen was referring to McClanahan’s unshakable competitive spirit — the same one Rays fans have come to know and love — despite the ace missing all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The timing of the article proved unfortunate. Just a day after it was published, McClanahan exited the Rays’ Spring Training game against the Red Sox with left triceps tightness.
His timeline for return remains unclear as he undergoes further testing. The injury initially looked concerning, though some of us in the RBLR Rays Discord found relief in the fact that it wasn’t related to his forearm or elbow. It’s also worth noting that even if McClanahan had stayed healthy this spring, the Rays likely would have managed his workload with innings or pitch count restrictions, at least early in the season.
McClanahan’s comeback was one of the most highly anticipated storylines entering the year, and Rays fans can only hope this setback doesn’t sideline him for long. The lefty last pitched in a regular season game on August 2, 2023, capping a short but impressive campaign in which he earned his second All-Star selection (though he didn’t pitch due to injury) and was an early AL Cy Young frontrunner. As Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder told MLB.com, “Provided health, there’s no ceiling” for McClanahan.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Curtis Mead wins a roster spot
Curtis Mead was supposed to hit.
His overall ceiling and floor were limited due to his defensive question marks, but he seemed like a safe bet to be an above-average MLB regular given his plus bat. There’s a reason the Rays were in serious talks about an extension with Mead before his MLB debut.
That’s what made 2023 and 2024 so infuriating. His initial run in 2023 showed some positives: the bat wasn’t knocked out his hand completely as a 94 wRC+ in 92 at-bats wasn’t poor, and he wasn’t dominated in the zone (22.8 K%). The lack of power was concerning for a player who had run ISOs closer to .200 than .100 in MiLB. However, Mead fractured his wrist early in the season at AAA, so it makes sense that his power didn’t fully materialize. Wrist injuries famously sap power and often require a significant amount of time to recover from entirely. He was still making contact an average amount of contact, even with an above-average 63.6% swing rate.
Curtis still managed to hit .294/.385/.515 with a 123 wRC+, a 12.6% BB rate, 17.3% SO rate, and a .221 ISO with a sustainable .328 BABIP as a 22-year-old in AAA even with his fractured wrist. In 2024, his batted ball data rebounded significantly while he still maintained a high contact percentage and a solid strikeout rate.
But the results took a step back at both AAA and in the majors; every hit ball felt flat. When he did square a ball up, it was on the ground, or it was a tough-luck out. Even though his average exit velocity rebounded to average, and his max exit velocity was in the 85th percentile, to most Rays fans, Mead felt like I lost cause. I retained faith that he could hit due to Mead’s bat speed data, which would have been in the 82nd percentile in MLB. He had a lot of individual desirable traits from each year but has never put it all together at the highest level.
This week, Mead was placed on the opening day roster after what can only be described as a fantastic spring. A casual observer might note that his production this spring is highly centered around singles, which is true, but the contact quality is on par with anyone on the Rays currently. With the limited public Statcast we see in Spring Training, only 10 of the 31 balls Mead has put into play are available. However, the average EV amongst those is 98.7mph, with a max of 110.7mph. That average exit velocity will regress somewhat and its important to note this only pertains 10 of 31 batted balls, but if Mead can run exit velos in the low to mid 90s then it will be a significant boost to his staying power in the MLB going forward.
Mead appears to be putting it all together, as evidenced by the typically roster-control-centric Rays providing an opportunity for Eloy Jimenez to leave after being optioned. Spring Training stats should be viewed with a grain of salt, but the contact quality shown by Mead combined with making the Opening Day roster suggests that we could see a post-prospect breakout in 2025 from the still-young 24-year-old Aussie.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : A second Silver Slugger?
Most of the national baseball media do not give him the respect he deserves, but Yandy Diaz is truly an elite hitter. Yandy got off to a sluggish start for his standards last season, from Opening Day to May 31st, Yandy slashed a lethargic .243/.319/.342 – good for a 96 wRC+. It was quite strange given the fact Yandy was fresh off a batting crown, and a career-high 163 wRC+ in 2023.
What may of caused this sluggish start? First off, the Rays dealt with just dreadful injury luck to open the season. Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Jonny DeLuca each spent extended time on the IL out of Spring Training. This put immense pressure on Yandy to begin the season. Another reason as to why Yandy had a slow start is that he reverted to his old self; posting a groundball rate of 56.6%, and he only pulled the ball at a 21.7% clip. Those types of numbers generally do not equate to success for Yandy.
From June 1st to the end of the season, he performed up to where we as Rays fans expect: .305/.357.460 and a 137 wRC+. A healthy lineup of accomplished and consistent performers certainly helped him. The fact that he raised his pull% by nearly 13%, and decreased his groundball % by nearly 4% helped him achieve greater results. Steamer agrees with me that Yandy should have an overall better season; projecting a .292/.369/.449 slash, and a 139 wRC+. A stable and more consistent environment should help Yandy contend for another trip to the All-Star game, and his 2nd Silver Slugger.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Spring Training overreactions
It’s overreaction season! A tradition unlike any other across the baseball community is taking a sample size of under 50 plate appearances (or 15 innings) and making rash generalizations about a player and their potential for the season. While it doesn’t necessarily any insight, it’s fun to overreact. So here are the three biggest Spring Training overreactions when it comes to the Rays roster:
- What has gotten into Curtis Mead? After limping out of the gates to start his major league career (as most do), Mead looked like the best hitter on the planet this spring; producing a slash line of .538/.617/.641 and walking 6 times compared to just 5 strikeouts. He has also posted impressive exit velocities that matched Junior Caminero’s most game. There was once a chance Mead didn’t have a secure spot on the roster once the Rays signed Eloy Jimenez. However, Mead forced the hand of Rays management and became undeniable, hopefully leading to major league opportunities and results unseen for Mead in his career thus far.
- What are these guys doing in Durham? The Rays’ depth was on full display this spring, as AAA outfield depth pieces Jake Mangum and Kam Misner performed at some of the highest levels in the entire organization, with Misner running .394/.474/.667 and Mangum eclipsing those numbers with a .429/.467/.750 slash line. They both will start the season in Durham, but look primed to be quality depth that the Rays can take advantage of deep in a season. In a 162 game marathon, stars can win you a game, but depth wins series. Just ask the 2023 Yankees without Aaron Judge.
- Not this again. 7 innings into his first spring off Tommy John surgery, Shane McClanahan left the game visibly in pain on his throwing arm. Kevin Cash has already told the media he will be missing some time this season, and the Rays are now out an Opening Day starter. Losing a top 5 pitcher in baseball is demoralizing, however in this instance, the overreaction is that the Rays can manage a rotation without him. Without McClanahan, the Rays rotation looks to be some combination of Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, and Ryan Pepiot. This rotation (despite lacking their ace) is still dangerous and one of the best in baseball. They will add an absolute weapon when McClanahan is back. Here, the overreaction is to relax.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
