RBLR Rays Roundtable #7 – Baseball Is Underway!
Rays baseball is finally back! We’ve got outdoor baseball, some fantastic pitching performances, and even a walk-off homerun on Opening Day courtesy of Kam Misner. This week, our writers reflected on the week that was and look into the start of minor league season too.
Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10) : What We’ve Seen So Far
Baseball is officially back, and don’t worry, the sky isn’t falling.
Yes, through the first two games, the Rays went 4-15 (.267) with RISP. However, in game one, as a team, they had a 40% hard-hit rate, and in game two, they had a 59.4% hard-hit rate. League average sits around 35%, with elite hitters around 45% and greater.
The numbers speak for themselves here; the Rays had unfortunate luck mainly in Saturday’s 2-1 loss with an xBA of .360 on balls in play. Props to the Rockies; they have a young crew with dynamic playmakers out in the field and will be highly regarded as a top defensive team in baseball this season. Looking at the box score never tells the whole story.
The bottom half of the lineup put the ball in play more, and there were quality at-bats up and down the lineup. Christopher Morel was a true standout; he looked very comfortable in LF, making a difficult grab ranging back and to his right Saturday, and multiple times he worked an 0-2 count into a walk.
The Rays are connecting barrel to ball at a high clip to start the season. If they keep that up, with guys like Morel doing the little things well, we will see the standard Rays baseball has set the last five seasons back on the field. This team has been underrated all offseason, and the start of the season is extremely encouraging, with signs of life from the top of the order to the bottom. Buckle up – it’s going to be a fun ride.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Depth Comes For Us All
Rays baseball is back, and Opening Day delivered a moment for the history books. Kameron Misner, a 27-year-old rookie, became the first player in Major League history to hit his first big league home run as a walk-off on Opening Day – a truly improbable claim to fame.
It’s wild to consider the chain of events that allowed Misner to find himself in that moment. Days before Opening Day, Richie Palacios suffered a broken finger, leading the Rays to recall Misner from Durham, where he was originally expected to start the season. Then, on Opening Day itself, an injury to Josh Lowe and a series of late-game substitutions brought Misner into the game in the top of the eighth inning. The rest is history.
Baseball is a grueling sport. Maybe Opening Day injuries aren’t the norm, but a 162-game season all but guarantees that players will go down. And while we all love watching superstars like Shohei Ohtani, Freedie Freeman, and Juan Soto deliver in big moments, there’s something even more special – almost poetic – about an unexpected player stepping into the spotlight. Call me a romantic, but that’s the beauty of baseball: Someone is always waiting for their moment, ready to step up when opportunity calls.
For the Rays, that’s especially true. In 2024, Fangraphs ranked their farm system No. 1 in baseball, a testament to their depth of talent. If Misner’s moment is any indication, there are plenty more where that came from.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : How To Win The World Series
When the whole league is even, there’s always room for optimism. The Rays, starting the year with 19 out of 22 home games and a relatively favorable early schedule, certainly have some optimism. Most media outlets have picked the Rays to finish the season in fourth or fifth place in the AL East. However, with three games under the belt, it’s never okay to be that pessimistic about a team who’s made the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. So, in the spirit of thinking big, the question of the day being answered is a simple one; “The Rays can win the World Series, if…”
- They stay healthy. Sound familiar? Yes. Has this happened thus far? Unfortunately, no. Four key contributors for the Rays are on the injured list, including their two most proven outfield bats, their everyday shortstop, and their opening day starter (the one originally planned). The Rays dodged some bullets in these, however, as Josh Lowe’s oblique seems to be the only long-term injury. The Rays build their rosters in order to maximize depth, and two quality depth pieces have taken Palacios’s and Lowe’s spots in the outfield. Having to dip too far into the Durham well could be dangerous.
- Positive regression rears its head. There are a few indicators for team success, especially in a baseball process standpoint. Lots of times, some of these indicators can tell the story of how a team performs across 162 games. In 2024, the Rays were bottom five in ISO, and bottom six in total strikeouts. Not hitting for power as well as striking out at an insane clip does not bode well for any team, and this was mostly due to underperformances from consistent players like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Josh Lowe. All three players are set to rebound, and would boost this roster to levels seen in years past.
- The young guys do what we know they’re capable of. What do Curtis Mead, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and much of this roster have in common? They were all highly regarded prospects at one point who have shown flashes of their potential in the majors. These players taking the next step would make the Rays roster even more dynamic, and give the Rays additional consistent, strong starters as they progress through a season where injuries are inevitable. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, and the more depth and quality role players you have on your roster the better. You’re only as strong as your weakest link, and the young guys on the 2025 Rays have the ability to keep the chain intact until the final game of the postseason is played.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : A Couple Of Underrated Prospects
This Rays system is arguably the deepest it’s ever been, but they have two prospects in particular I’d like to highlight heading into the 2025 season. Let’s start with Marcus Johnson. Johnson, a right-handed pitcher, got drafted by the Marlins in 2022 in the fourth round and was later sent to the Rays in the Xavier Edwards Rule 5 crunch trade in 2022. Johnson impressed in his first season in the Rays organization, posting a 3.75 FIP across 120 innings in Charleston. Unfortunately, Johnsons 2024 had a setback undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He eventually came back in mid-July that season, but could only eclipse 16.1 IP.
So, why am I high on Johnson? It’s pretty simple. With the Rays, Johnson has sustained just a 4% walk rate, has a fluent and repeatable delivery, and has three extremely quality offerings.
My second prospect to keep an eye on for this upcoming season is Matthew Etzel. Etzel, a left-handed hitting outfielder, has plenty of tools to like. Etzel was acquired ahead of last year’s trade deadline in part of the return for Zach Eflin. Etzel had a quality first stint with the Rays AA affiliate, slashing .232/.300/.392, good for a 105 wRC+.
Etzel’s unique blend of tools is what intrigues me the most; he’s a 65-grade runner, according to MLB Pipeline. With the minimal Statcast data we have on Etzel, he flashed plus exit velocities, showcasing his power potential. I am beyond excited to get a chance to see how a healthy Johnson and a fully acclimated Etzel perform this season!
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Salvaging The Blake Snell Return
The trade for Blake Snell made sense on paper as the return was excellent without hindsight. Of what was an exciting return, Cole Wilcox stood out to me. Wilcox was fresh off being given the largest bonus for a third round pick ever. In 2021, he dominated the Carolina League, posting a 2.03 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and a 29.9% strikeout rate in 44.1 innings. His fastball ranged from 94-97 MPH, sometimes touching 100 MPH, and his slider topped 90 MPH, giving him a ceiling of a #2 starter and a floor of a elite reliever. With continued command progression, Wilcox positioned himself to carry the Snell return single-handedly.
That changed on June 27th, 2021, in Charleston, South Carolina. After facing eight batters in an excellent start, Wilcox tore his UCL. He underwent surgery and returned in 2022, but his velocity had decreased significantly. His fastball now sat at 91-94 MPH, and his slider no longer reached the high 80s. During his recovery, Wilcox spoke about the mental battle of UCL recovery and how he was adjusting his approach to prevent future UCL injuries. With such a rapid recovery, concern was mitigated to a degree. However, 2023 offered no reprieve. Assigned to Double-A, Wilcox face-planted. Dealing with pre-tacked balls utilized in the first half of the season didn’t help, and he saw a significant drop in swing-and-miss, going from a 16.2% swinging strike% to 12.2% year-over-year. His K% dropped from 29.9% in 2021 to 21.8% in Double-A, and he was hit hard, posting a 5.23 ERA and a 4.92 FIP. His K-BB% decreased by 14.9% from 2021 and he wasn’t BABIP’d into the ground at .281.
After a failed 40-man platform year, Wilcox went unselected in the Rule 5 draft and returned to Double-A in 2024. However, he returned a different pitcher, using a five-pitch mix that heavily featured his slider. Wilcox rebounded, posting a 3.18 ERA with a 3.16 FIP over 104.2 innings. His strikeout rate dropped to 18.3%, far from the 29.9% seen in 2021, but his performance was a significant stride forward even with a poor debut stretch in AAA.
In 2025, Wilcox could make his MLB debut, far removed from his initial potential as a #2 starter, but he could still provide value as an innings eater for the Rays. However, with another year post-UCL injury, one can only hope Wilcox can rediscover the high-octane stuff that was so easy for him to achieve previously or a move to the bullpen can bolster his stuff. This would at least bring some redemption to what has been a horrid trade for the Rays.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
