RBLR Rays Roundtable #11 – Cooper, Chandler, and The Division
This week, our writers took a look at some of the young bats who are the catalysts for their respective lineups in the Rays organization; starting with Cooper Kinney in AA, Chandler Simpson in the majors, and a look around the rest of the AL East.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Cooper Kinney On The Rise
When you look at the Rays minor league wRC+ leaders, an unexpected name graces the top. That name is Cooper Kinney. Kinney, a former Rays compensatory first-round pick part of the 2021 class, has consistently flown under the radar during his pro career.
Amongst the major prospect ranking outlets, Kinney falls in the 13-25 range within the Rays top 30 prospects, but given his minor league production, that seems quite low. Cooper, for his career, has produced at every stop (career 129 wRC+), while being under the average age for the league he’s in.
This season in particular, Kinney has raked as he is off to a blazing 224 wRC+ start. The most notable change you can find is that Kinney is optimizing his batted balls considerably more, as he is flashing a career high in LD% (32.7%) this season. Kinney has always been touted as a “bat > glove” prospect, but has gotten better defensively year over year, now showing the ability to play 3B and 2B more often will only help his long-term outlook within the Rays organization.
It’s awesome to finally get to see Kinney come into his own here in his fourth professional season. He has battled multiple injuries, so to finally see him enjoy an entirely healthy offseason and improve the trajectory of his career.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Spark Plug Simpson
With injuries plaguing the roster, especially in an outfield group that once seemed set in stone in the offseason, the Rays had to turn to a young, inexperienced option to get an extended role in the majors, much earlier than expected.
Chandler Simpson has been impressive in his early stint with the Rays, sporting a 136 wRC+ (as of 4/27/25) and acting as a much-needed spark plug for an injury plagued Rays team. However, with a few small adjustments and getting used to a major league environment Simpson can become one of the premier true leadoff hitters seen in the league’s recent memory.
A common problem with players who posses elite hit tools similar to Simpson is the tendency to believe in themselves a little *too* much, leading them to swing at non-optimal pitches in or outside of the zone, causing easy outs.
Simpson, as he is getting adjusted to the big leagues, has run into this tendency. His game will never be barreling the baseball and hitting home runs, but ideally, he would be waiting for a pitch to line into the outfield and get on base, while using his generational legs to take extra bases as the inning continues. Simpson has been a bit too jumpy at the plate to start his career, with a 38.1% chase rate and 4.2% walk rate, less than half his walk rate across the 3 levels he played last year combined.
With Simpson, it is simply a matter of waiting for “his pitch,” and if it doesn’t? Take your base and do what you do best – make magic on the basepaths. Chandler Simpson has given the Rays an early spark on offense, but by simply settling down and being patient, he can elevate his game even more.
Carter Brantley (@CTBrantley12) : A Look Around The East
The AL East is always a bloodbath so let’s take a step back to see how the rest of the division is faring.
I’ll run through each team based on the current standings, highlight some notable performances (good and bad), and, of course, dish out some well-earned slander along the way.
New York Yankees:
Boo, hiss, yuck.
Aaron Judge has been playing like steroid-era Barry Bonds up to this point, with a gross .517 wOBA, and while his .500 BABIP and common sense suggest regression at some point, what’s been most impressive to me has been his career-low 21.2% strikeout rate.
He’s always mashing and drawing walks, but it’s almost like now he’s mixing in a bit of Wade Boggs into his game, which seems unfair.
Max Fried is also dealing, filling the Ace role while Cole is out.
The good news for the Rays is that when Judge falls a bit because no one can keep that up over an entire season (right?) the Yankees’ record should suffer, as they’re quite dependent on Judge’s greatness.
Boston Red Sox:
The spunky young Red Sox are having some fun this year, with rookie Kristian Campbell sporting a robust 140 wRC+ and their pitching staff leading the majors with a 30.7% chase rate.
Garrett Crochet may scare the crap out of me with his thin wiry build and previous injury history, but he’s been absolutely dealing, with a 2.22 FIP and a nearly 30% strikeout rate.
Boston is unfortunately here to stay, with a deep lineup and a front office that seems to have a solid grasp on pitching development.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Toronto’s a very average team across the board. They’re 21st in team wRC+ and 15th in fWAR from their pitching staff.
The Blue Jays do have one of the lowest whiff rates in the league, but they also have the 3rd lowest meatball % in baseball, contributing to their league-worst 5.7 barrel rate.
Not only can they not hit the ball hard themselves, they’ve also allowed the highest barrel rate in baseball.
So I don’t quite know what to make of them, but it’s early and I didn’t really know what to make of them before the season, either.
Baltimore Orioles:
By golly, who could’ve predicted that only signing Charlie Morton to a staff that has Zach Eflin and unfortunately injury-prone Grayson Rodriguez would lead to an unmitigated disaster?
The only team with a higher wOBA allowed for the year are the as-of-this-writing Colorado Rockies, and Baltimore’s xwOBA is still 4th-worst in baseball.
While their offense has been hitting the ball hard, with a 44.4% hard hit rate, suggesting their 102 wRC+ might be due for a bit of a rise at some point, will it be enough to make up for a middling group of hurlers?
I’m not sure, and frankly the way Mike Elias has handled the actual winning part of this Orioles long-term rebuild has been an embarrassment.
Maybe he needs to implement another slimy cheating scheme to win some games.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
