The Rays’ Deep System Hides Some Underrated Gold

The Tampa Bay Rays are having a very successful season, up and down throughout their organization, currently occupying a wild card spot at the major league level and boasting a cumulative 157-123 (56% win%) at the minor league level.

The Hot Rods have already clinched a playoff berth thanks to winning the South Atlantic League first half crown. That is a fairly long-winded way to say this Rays system is as deep as it’s ever been. They currently have 16 45 FV or better prospects according to FanGraphs, including 6 50 FV or better prospects.

In this article, I am going to go over 3 of the guys that are outside that 45 or better FV range that are putting together some very strong seasons. 

Homer Bush Jr. OF, Age: 23.7, Level: AA, 35+ FV.

Homer Bush Jr. is admittedly a personal favorite prospect of mine, due to the lofty defensive ceiling, speed, and plate skills. The Rays acquired him last season at the trading deadline from San Diego in exchange for veteran reliever Jason Adam, and posted a very productive half season within the Rays organization, posting a 124 wRC+ in A+ last season and tapping into a bit of his power, but this season he is getting it done in a different way.

Bush went from a pretty extreme pull player last season (52% pull%) to a pretty extreme opposite field hitter this season (45% oppo%). That 45% opposite field usage rate would comfortably rank first amongst qualified major league hitters, but it’s working thus far for Bush, who is posting a 119 wRC+, a healthy 9.1% BB% (~55th ML percentile), and a 76.6% contact%.

Homer’s speed has been on full display this season as well, going 26/31 in the stolen base department. Overall, I am a little disappointed he has gone away from the pull/air approach, as it netted him a career-best .136 ISO last season, but as long as this heavy groundball/oppo approach keeps working (and with his speed, it very well could), there is no need to change. 

Nathan Flewelling C, Age 18.6, Level A, 40 FV.

The Tampa Bay Rays selected the Canadian backstop with the 94th overall pick in last year’s MLB draft, and he has a lot to like with his plus power potential and showing off a discerning eye this season (17.7% BB%).

I think if most fans went to Flewellings FanGraphs page, it just looks, meh, but since June 1, he is running a 141 wRC+, and a .169 ISO. If Flewelling were to sustain that ISO, he would land inside the top 10 in the Carolina League, while being under league average in age by 2.5 years.

For now, the glove seems very noisy. FanGraphs gives him a 30/40 Field grade, but with the ABS challenge system coming, framing certainly takes a marginal backseat moving forward. Flewelling is someone that I will continue to have my eye on, moving forward with a playable 70.4% contact%, a spike in power production, and the consistent plus walk rates make this a really unique profile for such a young catcher.

Ty Johnson RHP, Age 23.8, Level AA, 40 FV.

At last year’s MLB trading deadline, the Rays acquired Johnson in the trade that sent all-star 3B Isaac Paredes to the Chicago Cubs. At the time, Johnson was viewed as a “throw-in” in the deal, but it’s looking like a very plausible outcome that he ends up the best of the trio of players the Rays acquired.

All Johnson has done throughout his entire two-year MiLB career is miss bats. Across his first 133 innings as a professional, Johnson has struck out 35% of the batters he has faced, which, for context, that 35% K% would land him first amongst qualified Major League starters.

How does Johnson miss so many bats? Ty has plus spin; his slider is easily his best secondary offering, grading out as a 55/60 offering according to FanGraphs. It’s a pretty traditional slider getting healthy glove-side run and downward action in the low 80s range.

Johnson pairs his slider with a real quality fastball, it’s sitting mid-90s this season coming out of a 3/4s shute and plays up with his 6’6 frame and long arms. The Rays started Johnson out in the bullpen due to some strike-throwing concerns (9.3% career BB%), but since May 18th, he has shifted into a full-time starter role and has been nothing short of unbelievable.

Since becoming a full-time starter, Johnson has pitched to the tune of a 2.22 FIP and 21.2 K-BB%. All while being 1.5 years younger than the average Southern League player. If Ty keeps up this emergence, there is a real good chance we look at him being the “prize” of the Isaac Paredes trade. 

Countless players are having special seasons that I could speak at length about. This system is probably the deepest and healthiest I have ever seen it. It’s so awesome being a Rays fan, every one of these acquisitions (even if they’re not notable at the time) has a purpose and has a skill or a trait that the Rays trust and believe in.

Guys like Homer Bush and Ty Johnson weren’t the “prizes” of their deals, but they both possess a plethora of skills and have been uber productive ever since coming over to the Rays organization. Moving forward, I am very excited and encouraged to continue evaluating each of these players, and I hope I was able to add or re-add some of these guys to your radar.