RBLR Rays Roundtable #20 – Rule 5 Rumblings and Potential Trades

This week, our writers looked at a pair of position players in Durham who might get traded in preparation for the Rule 5 roster crunch this winter. We also proposed a trade package including a couple more Rule 5 eligible players and speculated when Littell’s time as a Ray could come to an end.

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Rule 5 rumblings

With the trading deadline approaching, the Rays will more than likely look to be proactive in trying to get ahead of their Rule 5 decisions. They’ve already dealt Rule 5 eligible outfielder, Dru Baker, to the White Sox in exchange for Matt Thaiss.

Bob Seymour is probably the most intriguing player the Rays need to decide on. Seymour is having another strong campaign in AAA and has made some noticeable improvements, increasing his Z-Contact% by 6% and increasing his max EV by 3.5 (to 117.9). The reality is, the Rays do not have a major league opportunity for Bob anytime soon, as they currently roster Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, and have top prospects Tre Morgan and Xavier Isaac on the way. This makes Seymour a prime player to be dealt for potential major league help.

Ironically enough, Tristan Peters was included in a Rule 5 clearing trade. The Rays sent infielder Brett Wisely to San Francisco, and they received Peters, but now his Rule 5 decision is on the horizon. Peters is having a career year on the surface, posting his best wRC+ (132) since joining the Rays organization. Under the hood, though, he is posting similar marks to last year’s AAA campaign (where he posted a 95 wRC+), hovering within a less than 1% increase in contact% and having a 2 MPH slower max EV this season. Peters certainly appears to be a guy the Rays look to deal in the coming weeks if they end up being in the market to add to their current Major League group.

Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Keegan and Seymour for Bader and Coulombe

If you’re paying attention, the last couple weeks of my segments have had a trend to them. 2 weeks ago, I discussed the possibility that the Rays do not feel the need to go too far into the trade market. Last week, I discussed one need that the Rays could target a replacement in. To end this quasi trade deadline series, I will propose a trade that I believe will benefit the Rays roster tremendously. The deal I’m proposing: the Rays acquire CF Harrison Bader and LH RP Danny Coulombe in exchange for C Dominic Keegan (TB #14 prospect preseason on FanGraphs) and 1B Bob Seymour (NR) 

Rays receive: Two steady major leaguers who will improve positions of need. I discussed the need for a stable option in CF at nauseam last week, so I won’t dive too deeply into why I would acquire Bader. However, I will discuss that Bader’s 37.0% pull rate ranks 30th in the league (min. 230 PA), so potentially the Rays see a guy who plays elite defense in CF and pulls the baseball in the air occasionally (20.5 pull AIR% ranks within the top 65% in baseball) as a natural fit.  

Coulombe, a former foe of the Rays in Baltimore, is another natural fit. He’s been an absolute weapon out of the bullpen for Minnesota this season, rocking a 0.82 ERA and a 1.59 FIP. Coulombe also runs an astounding K-BB% (22.6), induces chases at a insane 41.8%, and has yet to give up a single barrel in 28 appearances this season. With the inconsistency of Mason Montgomery and the recent struggles of Garret Cleavinger, targeting a left-handed reliever on a one-year deal that has been as effective as Coulombe has seems like a no brainer. 

Twins receive: Two pretty solid baseball players who unfortunately may not have a spot with the Rays’ 40-man roster. The issue that haunts an organization as adept in player development like the Rays every year is that there might not be enough roster spots for everyone. Keegan has done nothing but hit since entering the Rays org via the 2022 draft, and Seymour has broken out in Durham this season and is putting up quality results. The Rays would love to have either man at their disposal, but 40-man roster restrictions simply do not allow them to. While Keegan has a clearer path to the majors than Seymour, I still believe Keegan would be a prime candidate to be moved by this deadline as a 40-45 FV guy to push a rental trade over the top. Seymour, as Jacob discussed earlier, has a steep mountain to climb to see a roster spot in the majors with Tampa Bay, and I can see the Rays capitalizing on his growth at the plate to supplement the major league roster. 

Although not the most mind-blowing trade in the world, these are the trades that can win games in October, and the most likely types of trades the Rays will make as we enter prime deadline season.

Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10) : Business as usual

It’s no secret, the Rays are hot. This time a month ago, I was debating which veteran Rays would be on the move at the trade deadline and what type of haul we would see for the likes of Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz. But now the Rays can capitalize on a team that can compete with anyone around the league, and importantly, can beat anyone in any type of game.

The Rays can beat you with pitching and defense, rack up hits, move runners over, play small ball, or they can show off their power. How do you add to a team that has hit its stride and is bought into the organization’s philosophy?

Adding an ace and a plus defender that can also provide offensive stability at a premier position. Shane McClanahan and Ha-Seong Kim are poised to make their 2025 debuts, Kim sooner than Mac, and these two players would cost an arm and a leg at the deadline for any team.

With that being said, and the Rays are still the Rays, I think there is a possibility we see them move a surprising name at the deadline. Zack Littell has been nothing short of impressive as a Ray, and based on last season’s massive trade packages, why wouldn’t they try to continue to improve their future with so many talented arms waiting in the wings? It’s always a gamble, but that is the Rays way we know that has kept them so competitive for the last 17 years.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!