RBLR Rays Roundtable #22 – A Brave Trade, Roster Mismanagement, Here’s Jonny, Rasmussen’s Return, & Stumbling Into the All-Star Break
This week, our writers shared thoughts on a trade idea floated by ESPN, some questionable roster moves over the last week, Jonny DeLuca’s progress as he attempts to return from injury again, Rasmussen returning to the rotation this season after a third elbow surgery, and the recent struggles from the team despite having four all-stars.
Carter Brantley (@CTBrantley12) : Acquiring Ronald Acuña
There was a recent trade proposed by ESPN’s David Schoenfield, which sent five players (Carson Williams, Theo Gillen, Shane Baz, Yoniel Curet, and Brody Hopkins) to Atlanta for the former MVP.
Acuña is extremely talented, injury prone, and on a team-friendly deal for most organizations, but maybe team-friendly enough for the Rays to consider absorbing it. However, with potential new ownership rumored to be vying for the team and supposedly allowing a more at least league-average payroll, let’s set that last part aside.
Acuña has as much offensive impact as anyone, but he also comes with defensive limitations and injury concerns. His defensive ability in RF is below par, and he has missed significant time due to injury over the last few years. This makes any Juan Soto-like return unrealistic, plus the Rays have never been known to make dramatic, overly aggressive decisions, and yet…
If the Braves wanted to replenish their farm and get their ML team younger, the Rays could offer some of the best quality and quantity of any team. Williams struggled early on in AAA offensively, but his defensive prowess combined with his speed and power upside are enticing enough to make him borderline untouchable. Gillen may be untouchable too; he’s likely the best hitter in the system. However, Curet and Hopkins are a good start, along with another major league-ready starter like Baz (or Taj Bradley).
Instead of Williams and Gillen, a more realistic pair of position players would be Brayden Taylor, who projects as a versatile infielder with an average or better bat, and Xavier Isaac, who could be a replacement for Olson or DH. Isaac has been overtaken by Tre’ Morgan as the first baseman of the future, and Taylor is never going to usurp Junior at 3B while Curtis Mead could be the 2B moving forward.
The final piece in my hypothetical trade is the toughest for the Rays to part with; Brailer Guerrero. They’d probably have to give up someone with significant upside like Guerrero. I don’t love it, and the obvious answer is to leave Guerrero out, but a guy who’s likely (and ironically) going to be a corner OF makes it easier to stomach.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Questionable roster moves
Obviously, the Rays have struggled over the past couple of weeks. Issues with the bullpen have erased some of the positive momentum we saw in June. Obviously we’ve had bullpen, but there have also been roster decisions that have had me confused.
What took so long to place Brandon Lowe on the IL? Lowe was hurt last Sunday in Minnesota. He stayed on the active roster until Friday afternoon, when he was placed on the injured list with Curtis Mead replacing him. The Rays played the entire Detroit series down a man (and even down two for some of the series as Ha Seong Kim missed a game), forcing them to play with 11 position players (realistically 10, as the Rays typically do not burn their backup catcher) against the team with the best record in baseball. Jose Caballero took most of the reps at second base when Lowe was hurt on the active roster, and went 2-15 racking up a -1 wRC+. Perhaps an earlier pivot to Mead, a good major league hitter since May 1st (125 wRC+, as well as +1 DRS at 2B as opposed to Cabby, who made some costly defensive mistakes in the past week that have cost the Rays runs), could’ve helped.
Six spots for five starters? As Drew Rasmussen is on pace to blow through his predetermined innings limit, the Rays pivoted to using Rasmussen as an opener for Joe Boyle to follow for a couple turns in the rotation. In theory, you’re adding a dynamic arm to the rotation who has dominated AAA play this year. The reality of the situation, however, is that the Rays have been forced to move to a 7 man bullpen, indirectly forcing them to send down the bullpen’s pleasant surprise of the year, Eric Orze after the acquisition of the optionless Bryan Baker. Rasmussen essentially holds a roster spot to throw two innings every five games, and with a bullpen struggling as much as the Rays bullpen has over the past few weeks, it’s an inefficient use of a roster spot as opposed to giving Rasmussen a phantom IL stint and adding an 8th RP.
Rasmussen is expected to move back to a larger workload, and Lowe should be back after the break, but it’s hard to not wonder if the last week could have gone differently if the Rays had utilized their roster spots more efficiently.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : DeLuca restarts his rehab
The Rays are amidst their worst stretch of the season, dropping 11 of their last 15 to fall to just 50-46 on the season. The Rays have a pretty clear need at this very moment on the position player front, a right-handed hitting outfielder, and fortunately, it appears Jonny DeLuca is on his way back after completing a rehab game with the FCL Rays on Saturday.
DeLuca’s Defensive Prowess: For an OF group that has just been mediocre defensively this season, DeLuca adds a big boost to a group that has slipped since Kam Misner’s option to AAA. DeLuca has plus jumps in the OF, allowing him to accumulate OAA at all three spots. He also sports a double-plus arm, landing in the 87th percentile in OF arm strength and 77th percentile in overall arm value. For a current group that has produced -6 OAA in the OF thus far, this is by far the largest area Jonny will help.
DeLuca’s Offensive Impact: DeLuca can impact the game offensively in a plethora of ways. He gives the Rays an additional elite runner as he landed in the 98th percentile in sprint speed last season and was a positive on the bases with a 0.7 BSR. With the bat, it was a difficult first season for DeLuca at the major league level, but he has always been productive throughout his time in the minor leagues (career 132 wRC+). DeLuca showed solid contact rates last year, landing in the ~55th percentile in Z-Contact% (85.9%). To get the most out of his below average power, DeLuca maintained a Pull Air% of 20.6% last season (roughly 70th percentile min 200 PA). The solid contact rates blended with the ability to consistently get the ball in the air to the pull side is a unique blend of skills that has always interested me since the Rays acquired Jonny.
DeLuca is on the 60-day IL and the Rays currently have a full 40-man roster, so there might be a difficult decision on the horizon. However, getting him back into the OF group is a net positive – especially on defense. The offensive ceiling is intriguing, and the minor league track record speaks for itself. Hopefully late-season additions in DeLuca, McClanahan, and Palacios can help steer this team back on track for a fun and competitive 2nd half.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Rasmussen on a roll
Rasmussen has quietly been one of MLB’s most valuable pitchers on a per-inning basis: worth 8.4 fWAR over 369.2 innings (0.023 fWAR per inning). If healthy enough for 150 innings annually from 2022–2024, that pace would have made him the 17th most valuable pitcher in baseball, sandwiched between Spencer Strider and Max Fried. His 2023 campaign was shaping up to be Cy Young-caliber (on pace for 5 fWAR) when the second domino of a season riddled with arm injuries fell. On May 12, 2023, a day after he dominated the Yankees for seven innings, the Rays announced Rasmussen would likely Drew would be sidelined until August 7th, 2024 After Hunter Bigge opened, Rasmussen (fresh off his third elbow surgery) took the mound and spun two perfect innings with three strikeouts.
Part of me hoped Ras would stay in that role as a multi-inning glue guy, prolonging his career. But in 2025, it became clear his recovery wouldn’t feel complete until he returned to starting. So far, his season has been nothing short of exceptional for a guy with 3 elbow surgeries. He’s on pace for a 3 fWAR season, and so far his ERA- of 71 (29% better than league average) and FIP- of 89 (11% better). Pitch modeling shows his stuff nearly back to 2023 levels: Stuff+ grades of 114, 118, and 106 on his four-seam, sinker, and cutter, and a slider at an elite 120. In June, he even began mixing in a changeup, giving lefties a third pitch to think about and rounding out an already devastating arsenal against righties.
Now, nearly eight years after the Rays balked on his post-draft physical, Rasmussen is an All-Star. He’s my favorite Rays pitcher: not just for his dominant stuff, but for his relentless drive to overcome obstacles. His story is one any fan, or anyone chasing success through adversity, can connect with.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Stumbling into the break
It seems like just as the Rays were catching fire and drawing league-wide attention for their climb up the standings in June, they’ve lost that momentum just as fast. Now, they find themselves on a steep slide in mid-July. After finishing June 17-10, even pulling within half a game of the Yankees on June 27, things have quickly unraveled. The offense isn’t producing, and the bullpen, once a reliable strength, has faltered with late-game meltdowns costing key games. Recent series haven’t helped: a crushing 22-8 loss to the Orioles, back-to-back defeats to the Athletics, and a tough stretch against the Twins have highlighted the team’s struggles. It’s been tough to watch, and the upcoming All-Star break couldn’t come at a better time for a much-needed reset.
The team’s recent struggles also create a strange dynamic with the timing of the All-Star break, given their strong presence in the festivities. Several Rays have earned spots in the All-Star Game: Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe (who won’t participate due to injury), and Drew Rasmussen. Caminero, in particular, will also compete in the Home Run Derby – a fitting honor given the power he’s shown of late, including his 22nd home run last week. While it’s always encouraging to see the Rays get recognition for the right reasons, especially as a small-market team often overlooked for its talent, the current slide makes it difficult to fully appreciate that spotlight.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
