RBLR Rays Roundtable #26 – The Arm Farm

This week, our writers highlighted a couple special pitchers in the minor leagues. Yoniel Curet returned to Montgomery after missing the first few months of the season with injury, and was then bumped up to AAA while Ty Johnson has been a helium prospect this year dominating the Southern League.

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Curet on the come-up

After the conclusion of his stellar 2023 season, Yoniel Curet was surprisingly added to the Rays 40-man roster. That year across A-A+, he struck out 33.3% of the batters he faced, but had plenty of control issues, walking guys at a 16.9% clip. Curet made some significant strides in the strike-throwing in 2024, slashing his BB% down by 4%.

After starting the 2025 season on the IL due to a shoulder injury, the Rays assigned him to AA for a month, and he was dominant, boasting a 1.45 ERA and 2.44 FIP while cutting his walk rate down to 6.8% (~75th ML percentile).

After that strong month in AA the Rays recently promoted Curet to AAA and he made his debut on August 7th, but the results were mixed. Curet posted a below average 45.0 zone%, but did post an above-average 21.0 zone-whiff%.

The stuff also was very encouraging, Curet averaged out at 97mph on his fastball with plus arm side movement. His slider was pretty inconsistent through out the night, but it looks like a pitch that long term he should be able to land for strikes. His changeup also looks like a pitch that could seriously improve his long term out look from high leverage reliever to possible starter.

As of now though Curet appears destined for the bullpen and could seriously help aid a group for the Rays that has been 12th in ERA, 4th in FIP, and 2nd in xFIP since July 1st.

Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Headliner Ty Johnson

The Isaac Paredes trade has been a frequent point of frustration for Rays fans. In simple terms, Tampa Bay dealt a productive hitter with 3.5 years of control for a return that, at the MLB level, looked underwhelming.

Paredes had posted at least a 115 wRC+ each season, but his approach carried long-term risk. His defense had slipped badly since 2022, to the point where a shift to first base during his remaining control years seemed likely. With Junior Caminero positioned as the future at third base, the Rays moved on.

The deal netted a mid-leverage reliever, a bat with positional flexibility but poor defense, and an overlooked third piece: Single-A starter Ty Johnson.

Unranked on Fangraphs’ Cubs lists, Johnson saw his stock rise after a 3 mph velocity bump post-draft out of Ball State and an impressive 2024 campaign (2.23 FIP, 2.67 xFIP, 36% K rate). The Cubs shortened his delivery, improving strike-throwing.

His primary weapon is a tailing fastball sitting 92–95 mph, touching 97, enhanced by a deceptive short-arm action and low arm slot. He pairs it with a tight, late-breaking slider at 82–85 mph.

That two-pitch mix has fueled a breakout in AA: 2.59 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 80 innings, supported by a strong 17.9% swinging-strike rate.

There are still real concerns. Johnson’s short-arm delivery and lack of a reliable third pitch create significant reliever risk. His changeup isn’t an MLB-caliber offering, and Fangraphs projects the Rays will push him toward a cutter to give him another weapon against lefties. Early this year, he was on a tight pitch limit, but since July, the Rays have let him work deeper into games. Whether his velocity holds late into outings will be key to reducing the bullpen projection.

As of now, Johnson’s floor looks like a future mid-leverage or multi-inning reliever. His ceiling — if he adds a viable third pitch and sustains velocity — could be that of a dominant late-inning arm or a back-end starter capable of short, effective outings. While the Paredes trade still feels light on MLB impact, Johnson’s progress could eventually reshape how it’s remembered.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!