2025 Bucs Predictions: From Falcons Opener to Season Finale

Intern season is over! No more engagement bait, outlandish takes, and ridiculously cherry-picked stats. The NFL Season is right around the corner (less than 100 hours until Thursday Night), with cutdowns just wrapping up last week, and final week 1 preparations starting today, the Bucs are looking to make a splash in Week 1. While the Bucs roster seems greatly improved, how will they perform this season? Are they contenders, as so many Hot Take Artists would have you believe?  

In Week 1, in the 1:00 window, the Bucs will face the division rival Atlanta Falcons, who are perhaps once again their main competition in the NFC South this season. They spent a lot of capital on the defense this season, bringing in LB Leonard Floyd, as well as drafting two edge defenders in James Pearce and Jalon Walker in the first round. They also grabbed two safeties in the third and fourth rounds, Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman, whom myself and other staff at RBLR were huge fans of.

While they had a nice offseason, and QB Kirk Cousins did throw for a combined 785 yards and 8 touchdowns while completing nearly 75% of his passes, it’s important to remember that QB Michael Penix Jr. did not play against Tampa last season. The 2nd year starter rode the bench up until week 16 last season, and while he looked pretty good in the small sample size, a sophomore slump could very well be on its way, especially starting the year against a reloaded Bucs defense that spent five out of their six picks on the defense as well as bringing in former all-pro OLB Haason Reddick. Both offenses are loaded with weapons, but this game will essentially come down to the trenches, especially with Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs and Falcons RT Kaleb McGary both missing the game.

Prediction: W, Bucs 28 – Falcons 24

The Bucs will play their first primetime game on Monday night of Week 2 against the Houston Texans. The last time these two teams faced, QB C.J. Stroud broke the single game rookie passing yard record with 470 yards. The story was a little different for them in 2024. While they did make the playoffs, the offensive line was very, very bad. They traded Laremy Tunsil this offseason and signed OT Christian Darrisaw who honestly might not be an upgrade. They also brought in former pro-bowl OG Laken Tomlinson, who gave up one of the highest pressure rates among all guards last season. They also drafted OL Aireontae Ersery from Minnesota in the second round, and added some defensive depth late. WR Christian Kirk and CB C.J. Gardner Johnson also joined the team via trade this offseason

These first two games will be true tests to see if the defense is really improved. These two teams have made mincemeat out of the Bucs over the last two years, and they have the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong in these first two weeks. I think the Texans have made some interesting moves but the offensive line is still very concerning. With the Bucs hopefully much improved defense, this game should not be a shootout.

Prediction: W, Bucs 35 – Texans 20

The Bucs home opener will be against the New York Jets in Week 3. They spent most of their offseason holding onto defenders like LB Jermaine Sherwood, with their only “splash” being QB Justin Fields who will replace Aaron Rodgers. They drafted OT Armand Membou with the seventh overall pick, TE Mason Taylor in the second round, and CB Azareye’h Thomas in the third round. They could and should be better this season after a tumultuous 2024 with QB-Coach-Front office drama. So Aaron Glenn’s first season as the Jets head Coach ought to be… interesting. While this game should not be close (unless Justin Fields is greatly improved from the last time we saw him play), the Jets future could be promising, with superstar RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson as well as a decent defense, their floor could be higher this season.

This very well could be a trap game for Tampa Bay. Not only are they coming off of a semi-short week, with their last game being on a Monday, they are also facing the Super Bowl Champion Eagles the next week. This game could prove critical as the following stretch of games is basically all NFC playoff teams. This is a sneaky potential loss for them, but I think they will pull off a late win either at the buzzer or in overtime.

Prediction: W, Bucs 24 – Jets 21

Week 4 will start perhaps the hardest stretch of the season for the Bucs. They will face the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. They managed to hold onto most of the Super Bowl starters and even added OLB Azeez Ojaluari who could be a pretty good defender on an already loaded front seven, and GM Howie Roseman once again had a draft to envy, including LB Jihaad Campbell. Obviously they figure to be contenders in the NFC again this season.

Fortunately for Bucs fans there is hope to be had. Todd Bowles has consistently had QB Jalen Hurts’ phone number. The Bucs have won 4 out of five contests with Hurts at the helm including both playoff games they’ve played. Hurts has a career line of 101 completions on 171 attempts (59%), 1058 yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and  5 interceptions as well as 37 carries for 136 yards, 4 touchdowns, and three fumbles (only one of which was lost). Throw in 14 sacks, and I’d say it’s been a pretty rough time for Hurts. This means the average Jalen Hurts game (which is in Tampa, I might add), is 20 completions on 35 attempts for 211 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 7 carries for 27 yards, maybe a touchdown on the ground and maybe a fumble. Not exactly super star stuff. The Bucs actually beat them very early on last season, and they hope to get an early momentum boost with a win over the defending champs. While the average margin of victory has been 10 points for the Bucs, I think this one will be a lot closer. The Eagles defense still projects as one of the best in the league and RB Saquon Barkley has yet to show signs of slowing down.

Prediction: W, Bucs 27 – Eagles 24

Week 5 will see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to the west coast for the first time, taking on the new-look Seattle Seahawks, led by free agent acquisition QB Sam Darnold. They also added WR Cooper Kupp, and DE DeMarcus Lawrence. They had a pretty solid draft class including OG Gray Zabel and combine standout Safety Nick Emmanwori. I have some pretty big questions about this team, including if Sam Darnold can produce without the WR combination of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and if the offensive line is significantly improved after being one of the worst in the league last year.

The Seahawks defense has a chance to be one of the top units in the league. But unless the offensive line is greatly improved, I don’t see the Seahawks being successful on offense. Darnold was significantly worse than Geno Smith against the blitz last season, and Smith faced one of the highest blitz rates in the league as a Seahawk. The Bucs have every opportunity to put up video game numbers on defense in the opening five games this season.

Prediction: W, Bucs 24 – Seahawks 16

The Bucs come back home from the road trip to face the 49ers in Week 6 in a rematch of last season’s game where the Bucs lost on the final drive. The offseason has not been kind to John Lynch’s 49ers. They lost 16 players to free agency, and traded away fill-in RB Jordan Mason and star WR Deebo Samuel. Most players they lost were significant contributors including LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, and LB Talanoa Hufanga. They will be relying heavily on aging, injury prone RB Christian McCaffrey, an aging TE George Kittle and a version of WR Brandon Aiyuk that is still recovering from a torn ACL in 2024, and still may not be ready by Week 6. They did spend nearly every pick in the draft replenishing their defense including two defensive linemen in the first two lines, but the aforementioned losses are very concerning. 

The Bucs have never beat QB Brock Purdy. Famously he led them to massive victory in his very first start, and they’ve played two close games since. Despite losing some weapons, and the defense losing key players, this game could very well still be a close one. Never count out Kyle Shanahan, after all. That being said…

Prediction: W, Bucs 23 – 49ers 20

Back on the road, the Bucs will see the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in Week 7 on a Monday Night, against another QB in Jared Goff who has been a thorn in Tampa’s side during his entire career. They’re offseason was more focused on retaining talent, and though they did lose former Bucs corner Carlton Davis III to New England, they did replace him with D.J. Reed, who though less productive, has a chance to prove himself in Detroit. They also lost OC Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears, and DC Aaron Glenn to the New York Jets. 

Goff’s lowest yardage total against Tampa is 287 yards in the playoffs just two seasons ago, and he had a passer rating of 103.5. He also once threw for over 517 yards in one of his only two losses in Tampa. Last season, the Bucs squeaked out a 20-16 win, where Goff managed 307 yards, but no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 61.2. DE Aidan Hutchinson, who is expected to be healthy to start 2025, recorded 4.5 sacks, the second highest single game total by a Lion and the second highest allowed by a Bucs offensive line. Though both defenses deteriorated throughout last season, both defenses were fairly good against high powered offenses that day, and I would expect more of the same, especially with turnover at both teams’ Offensive Coordinator posts. This is definitely one of the most concerning games on the schedule for Tampa. Also important to note, is the Bucs disappointing record in primetime during the Todd Bowles tenure, including losing all 5 night games last year, a 1-2 record in 2023, and 3-3 in 2022, Tom Brady’s last season.

Prediction: L, Lions 23 – Bucs 19

Week 8 will be the Bucs first game against the New Orleans Saints on the season, this time at the Superdome. Their last game before the bye week, and the first one after a tough stretch of games, this could absolutely be an upset watch game. The Saints have a new head coach in town, having hired former Cowboys and Eagles Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore, the second of three new head coaches they will face this season. They brought back WR Brandin Cooks, DE Chase Young, and brought in S Justin Reid. They also drafted OT Kelvin Banks with the ninth overall pick, and soon to be 26 year old QB Tyler Shough, who lost the starting job to Spencer Rattler with Derek Carr medically retiring. 

The Saints ceiling simply doesn’t look higher than three or four wins this season. With RB Alvin Kamara aging, an offensive line that might only be slightly improved, a WR core no deeper than a puddle, and Spencer Rattler starting, the “Awful for Arch” campaign is certainly soon to start.

Prediction: W, Bucs 38 – Saints 10

After their Week 9 bye, the Bucs will host the New England Patriots in Week 10, who spent a boatload or two this offseason in free agency, including nabbing weapons like WR Stefon Diggs, WR Mack Hollins, and TE Austin Hooper for their second year QB Drake Maye, while adding defensive stalwarts like LB Harold Landry III, LB Robert Spillane, DT Milton Williams, and former Buccaneer CB Carlton Davis III. In the draft, they added OT Will Campbell to play opposite Morgan Moses, as well as Ohio State star RB TreVeyon Henderson. In other offseason news, Robert Kraft and company brought in former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel to lead the squad in 2025.

Despite all the additions, I’m not convinced that this will be a close game. Maye had a fine rookie season, and the tape is impressive, but the additions of Diggs, Hollins, and Hooper don’t necessarily move me. Diggs seems far removed from his 1400 and 1500 yard seasons and Hooper hasn’t had more than 500 receiving yards in a single season since 2019. While they are nice additions, there are not enough reliable weapons on the roster. Both new Tackles should make Maye’s protections better, but I don’t see much success for them against the revamped Tampa defense.

Prediction: W, Bucs 24 – Patriots 10

The Bucs will travel to Buffalo in Week 11 to face the Buffalo Bills. Most of their offseason focus lay on extending WR Khalil Shakir, DE Greg Rosseau, and QB Josh Allen, who is now guaranteed the most money in NFL history at $250m over six seasons, with bonuses making the maximum payout $330m. They also drafted CB Maxwell Hairston from the University of Kentucky, an athletic freak to bolster their secondary.

While Josh Allen can be unpredictable and turnover-prone at times, he’s very frequently an unstoppable force. The lack of a superstar receiver didn’t hurt him last year and probably won’t this season, the only question in a matchup like this for the Bucs, is can you outgun the Bills offense. With Baker Mayfield at the helm, they’ll always have a betting chance, but the Bills will open as favorites for good reason in this game.

Prediction: L, Bills 38 – Bucs 35

The Bucs will play their third primetime game in Week 12, traveling out west to play the Los Angeles Rams. It was a pretty quiet offseason, but the team replaced WR Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams and added Poona Ford, hoping for another run at the playoffs in the waning years of QB Matthew Stafford’s career.

Sean McVay has only faced the Bucs once in Todd Bowles tenure as head coach, in a game where each team only scored one touchdown. But McVay had their number throughout the Arians era, with the Bucs managing just one win in 2019 across all matchups. The big question for the Rams is if Stafford manages to hold off Father Time for one more season. He has all the offensive weapons in the world, and the defense has some young superstars in DE Jared Verse and DT Braden Fiske. Coming off of a huge matchup, the Bucs could slip here, but I don’t see Stafford playing well next season simply due to age. This one will likely be low scoring regardless as McVay and Grizzard play the chess match game.

Prediction: W, Bucs 19 – Rams 17

The Arizona Cardinals will come to Raymond James in Week 13, and with their defense reloaded, they are looking to win the NFC West for the first time since 2015, in a division that is suddenly a lot weaker than it was just two years ago. With the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams all potentially taking steps back this year, what did the Cardinals accomplish this offseason? They re-signed OG Evan Brown, keeping their solid offensive line together, and they brought in DE Josh Sweat, reuniting him with HC Johnathan Gannon, who was the defensive coordinator in Philadelphia during two of Sweats most productive seasons. They also spent six of their seven draft picks on the defense, including DT Walter Nolen and CB Will Johnson, who are both expected to make immediate impacts in year 1.

QB Kyler Murray has not faced the Buccaneers since 2019, and the NFL has not been easy for him in the interim. While the defense ought to be a lot better this season, there are still major questions about the ceiling of the offense. Murray was at one point a top 10 talent in the NFL before some major injuries, will he ever get back to that point? WR Marvin Harrison Jr. had a pretty disappointing rookie season, will he be able to be a top receiver next season? Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride could be a very interesting 1-2 punch. What about running back? James Conner has had the two best years of his career in Arizona over the last two years, but he just turned 30. All in all, I think the offense will be good enough if the defense is elite, and that’s a major if. IF the defense can slow down the Bucs offense, and if the Bucs defense gives up one too many explosive plays, this game could very well be competitive. 

Prediction: W, Bucs 27 – Cardinals 21

The Bucs will host the New Orleans Saints in Week 14, and I don’t see a home 1:00 matchup going any differently, unless something has gone horribly wrong for Tampa Bay at this point in the season.

Prediction: W, Bucs 48 – Saints 10

The Falcons will have an opportunity to steal one from Tampa Bay in Week 15 on a Thursday Night. Given the short week, especially this late in the season, as well as the aforementioned lackluster performance by the Bucs squad in primetime games, I think the Bucs will find a way to lose this game.

Prediction: L, Falcons 30 – Bucs 29

In Week 16, the Bucs will travel up to Charlotte to face Dave Canales’ Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are very intriguing next season, in part because of the improvements QB Bryce Young made late last season (Bucs fans can thank him for handing Atlanta an overtime loss in Week 18 last season that all but assured a Bucs playoff berth), but they had a very nice offseason. They brought in Chiefs DT Tershawn Wharton, held on to CB’s Michael Jackson and Jaycee Horn, signed Raiders Safety Tre’Von Moehrig, and kept together their offensive line that reduced Bryce Young’s sack total from 62 in 2023, to 29 in 2024.

That being said, Bryce Young has not had a good game against Tampa Bay, and unfortunately for him I think that trend continues. His highest completion percentage in a game against the Bucs is 61.1%, and his highest passer rating of 100.7 came in a 14 – 48 loss. Keep in mind that this is the team he has played the most in his short career, accounting for four out of his thirty appearances. Despite the additions of WR Tet McMillan, DE’s Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen, RB Trevor Etienne, and S Lathan Ransom, I don’t see them improving quick enough to take either of the games against Tampa this season.

Prediction: W, Bucs 34 – Panthers 23

The Bucs will face their final unique opponent of the year in Week 17, traveling down to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami to face the Dolphins. They didn’t have a splashy offseason, in part due to the nature of their cap space situation. They did work to address the gaping holes in the offensive line, and got some of the necessary depth on defense that they’ve sorely lacked. They also drafted DT Kenneth Grant from Michigan, to help fill out the trenches even more. But honestly the only other news-worthy transaction was the addition of QB Zach Wilson, who is certainly an upgrade over Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley last season. With Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history, Wilson might be the most important player on the roster outside of the nucleus of Tagovailoa, WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and RB Devon Achane.

Should Tagovailoa play, which is certainly not a guarantee in Week 17, it would be his first time playing against the Bucs in his entire career. If the offensive line is not greatly improved this season, this game should be a wash, especially if the trade rumors about Tyreek Hill and CB Jalen Ramsey come true. The defensive line could be very exciting, but unless the team as a whole can stay healthy and focused, I don’t see this game being super close either. Especially the way Tyreek Hill played last time against Todd Bowles’ defense…

Prediction: W, Bucs 30 – Dolphins 24

The Bucs will wrap up the season back at home against the Carolina Panthers, where the Panthers have been outscored 69-32 over the last two games in Tampa. Obviously the Panthers played spoiler in Week 18 last season, but the numbers don’t lie.

Prediction: W, Bucs 40 – Panthers 27

Call me an overconfident optimist, but this schedule looks to be the easiest in quite some time for the Bucs. They have pretty easily owned the NFC South in this decade, and they faced most of the same division winners last season when they went 10-7. They kept the core together again this season, and appear to have made some big improvements in their areas of their biggest need. Yes this article is perhaps a bit of a big swing, but I truly believe this is their ceiling, with their floor lying around 11 or 12 wins and another NFC South 1st place finish.