Bucs Scrape by Falcons, Look Ahead to Texans on MNF
The Bucs managed to squeak out an ugly road win against division rival Atlanta Falcons last week, already improving on their record from last season, when they were swept in two games against the Falcons.
This is the 5th straight week one victory for the Krewe, making Bowles 4-0 as the Bucs Head Coach in week one matchups, and with the Saints losing to the Cardinals, they are now tied with just the Eagles for longest week one win streak in the league. And with former Bucs coordinator Dave Canales’ Panthers losing to former Bucs coordinator Liam Coen’s Jaguars, the Bucs are sole proprietors of first place atop the NFC South.
The Good
Receiving Core
The receivers will take the headlines of this game, particularly Emeka Egbuka, and not for no reason. He logged a 4 catch, 67 yard, 2 touchdown game on 6 targets with no drops. Egbuka is just the second ever Bucs player to catch two touchdowns in his debut, the first being Tight End Alex Smith in the year 2005. He is also the second player since the 1970 merger to catch a game winning touchdown in the final minute of regulation or overtime in an NFL debut, the other being Ernest Wilford in 2004 for the Buffalo Bills. He also led all position players for the Buccaneers with 54 snaps, even higher than Mike Evans.
Egbuka immediately proved his worth on Sunday as a first round pick, and Tampa just so happens to be a perfect landing spot. He has a chance to learn from future Hall of Famer Mike Evans, as well as Chris Godwin, who is one of the best pure slot receivers of the last decade in the NFL. Egbuka so far seems like a healthy blend of the two (44% of his snaps came out of the slot, a number that will likely rise in coming weeks). I think he ought to be in the running for Rookie of the Year already and he will surely build his resume in the coming weeks against a Texans defense that surrendered a 10 catch game for 130 yards to Rams WR Puka Nacua (50% of snaps from the slot), and a Jets defense that gave up 4 catches, 70 yards, and a touchdown to Steelers Calvin Austin III (42% of snaps from the slot).
Mike Evans also added a healthy 5 catches for 51 yards on 8 targets, and picked up four crucial third downs. While the offense struggled to get vertical all game, the offense managed to adjust after the opening few drives and took what the defense gave them.
Sterling Shepard was a pleasant surprise as the WR3 managed to haul in three of his six targets for 39 yards, with all three catches going for first downs. Notably: no drops! I tend to harp on him so I feel the need to shout out a performance that may not knock your socks off, but the guy got the job done when it mattered most.
Defensive Line
The Bucs largely bottled up the Falcons run game and much of that thanks goes to the defensive line. Bijan Robinson was held to just 24 yards on 12 carries, while Tyler Allgeier had 10 carries for 24 yards as well. As a whole the defense managed 22 pressures (good for a notch under 45%), good for 5th in the league on Sunday. Though they only managed to convert one of those into a sack, the pressure rate Sunday is 10% higher than last year, while their blitz rate is 8% lower. While this is a small sample size, Bowles feels comfortable getting pressure with four rushers more often, and his blitz packages have been more effective in smaller doses.
Though he wasn’t an every down rusher, OLB Haason Reddick accounted for 7 (tied for fifth most in the NFL) of the 22 pressures as well as the only sack of the day. He also drew a holding penalty in the red zone during the Falcons 18-play, nearly 9 minute march, but it was negated by an offsetting penalty in the secondary. The one sack game is actually the fewest in an opening day game since 2021 for the Bucs, but they also had a OLB Yaya Diaby sack wiped out by penalty and multiple times where they failed to wrap up Michael Penix jr., and two roughing the passer penalties that were very nearly sacks on the aforementioned marathon 4th quarter drive (one on NT Vita Vea for a hit to the QB’s head/neck area, and one on DT Greg Gaines that was a little questionable).
Offensive Line
This was perhaps the most intriguing not-so-last-minute move of the entire day. With All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs on the sideline recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, it was expected that newcomer Charlie Heck would step into his role. However, after giving reps to the emergency offensive line (should Heck leave the game with injury), they stumbled onto what they believed to be an even better lineup that they ran for two weeks of practice in secret. Last year’s first round pick Graham Barton usually plays Center for the Bucs, and played Center as a freshman at Duke, but wound up playing 1000 snaps at Left Tackle for the Blue Devils, and so he kicked to Left Tackle for Sunday’s game, while LG Ben Bredeson played center which he did for four games as a New York Giant in 2023, and practice squad Guard Mike Jordan was active for the game to play Left Guard.
In the run game, they played a massive amount of gap schemes (runs with a designated gap for the running back to run through, usually involving shifting offensive lineman after the snap). Of 18 designed runs, 15 were gap schemes and just three were zone runs, which is a good indicator that Bucky Irving will be the workhorse, but it’s interesting that OC Josh Grizzard chose not to run more zone with all of his linemen shifted around. For comparison, the Falcons ran only 10 gap plays out of 24 run plays. They were not successful on the ground, managing just 17 carries for 52 yards between their three backs. While RB Bucky Irving was able to add a touchdown through the air, his 14 rushes for 37 yards were mildly disappointing, especially because QB Baker Mayfield led all rushers with 5 carries for 39 yards.
In the pass game, they were much more successful, allowing just 12 pressures on pass plays where they faced four or fewer pass rushers according to PFF, with 4 of them coming from RT Luke Goedeke, which is surprising because he was one of two starters playing their regular positions. The only sack of the day came during a six man rush, with rookie S Billy Bowman being credited for half a sack and standout LB Divine Deablo being credited for the other half. For a division rivalry game with a shuffle like this, their first time playing real football together as a unit, this performance impressed me.
Secondary
The defensive secondary was actually not bad. Yeah, there were some ugly plays, ugly penalties, (you can post the screenshot of Jamel Dean on the ground all you want, but I die on the hill that he was not responsible for the intended target Falcons WR Casey Washington on that play), but they bent and – outside of the third play of the game – didn’t surrender a passing touchdown. Just the one busted dump off to superstar RB Bijan Robinson. Yeah, yeah, yeah, bad tackling and all that, but the guy just about leads the league in forced miss tackles since he arrived in the NFL. He’s going to break a long one every once in a while, especially when SirVocea Dennis hasn’t played real NFL snaps in nearly an entire calendar year. But I digress, we’ll get to the linebackers in a minute.
The secondary itself only surrendered 145 yards out of QB Michael Penix Jr. ‘s 298 yards, with the Linebacker core accounting for the other 153. Among the standout performances were CB Zyon McCollum who surrendered just 30 yards on six targets, and dropped an interception (he dropped another one as well but it would have been called back for a penalty anyway). Rookie Nickel CB Jacob Parrish gave up 2 yards on three targets, and blew up a WR Screen for a loss. S Antoine Winfield Jr. saved the game on the final drive on the only play he was targeted, blowing up Casey Washington on a catch that would have given the Falcons a last second touchdown.
While CB Jamel Dean drew two costly penalties, and certainly had a share of lowlights, he only allowed 51 yards on 10 targets, and forced four incompletions, including two in a row on passes to WR Drake London in the endzone. Of players who were targeted at least five times, Dean allowed the third lowest passer rating (65.0) in the whole game, and placed first on the Bucs roster by that metric, impressive for a DB targeted as often as he was. While it was far from a perfect showing, this is definitely not his worst game in a Bucs uniform.
Baker second half
The offense truly sputtered to start the game, but once we got to the final 2 minutes of the first half, QB Baker Mayfield managed to string some completions together and move the chains, in part due to a lengthy punt return by Kameron Johnson, who basically put them in the red zone. While Baker Started 2/7 for just 16 yards in the first quarter, he went 4/6 for 39 yards and a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first half (a total of 5/8 for 61 yards and a touchdown in the second quarter). The second half is where he found his consistency. He finished the game going 10/17 for 90 yards and two more touchdowns in the second half including the game winner, again in the final two minutes of the half. He was by no means elite, but he was good enough to get the job done when it mattered most, and his ability to move past the early struggles to be able to win the game. That’s what great teams and great quarterbacks do.
The Bad
Offensive start
The Bucs offense last season averaged 47 yards on opening drives last season, but this season was a quick departure. They got to start at their own 40 and DIDN’T pull the classic Dave Canales first down hand off, but Baker was incomplete regardless while rolling out. They then handed the ball to Bucky Irving who only picked up two yards, and then a second incompletion forced a punt.
The second drive was much the same. They punted twice in the first quarter and managed a total of 7 yards of offense.
Not ideal.
Obviously there are the variables of this being Grizzard’s first time scripting out an opening drive, and his first time even calling plays in real NFL football, as well as this being Baker’s first time seeing any live football action whatsoever since the wildcard loss. The offense will face a tougher task against a tough Texans defense next week, but there’s a good chance the offense looks more like it did in the second half than the first half.
Linebackers
The linebacking room was rough in coverage. Reddick played 6 snaps, gave up one catch for twelve yards the only time he was targeted, and missed a tackle in the open field. Not terrible but certainly not ideal. Lavonte David was decent, allowed three catches on three targets for just 17 yards, but missed a potential touchdown saving tackle on the Bijan Robinson 50 yard score. SirVocea Dennis…. He had a very bad day in coverage. I will note that his assignment on this play would be the middle of the field, as they appear to be in Cover three, meaning that the flats assignment should be Zyon McCollum. Dennis makes the diagnosis, but takes a not-so-great angle, made worse by the fact that it’s Bijan Robinson of all people. Then the Bucs obviously miss some open field tackles.
Dennis ended up allowing 6 catches on 7 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown, giving Penix a perfect passer rating of 158.3 when targeting Dennis. This includes a play where Dennis got over eager and blitzed late because he saw Bijan Robinson in pass protection, but Robinson made his way up field when he saw Dennis and picked up a healthy gain of 23 to convert on third down.
It wasn’t all doom and gloom however, as Dennis graded at 86.3 by PFF, the twelfth best performance against the run in week 1. He allowed an average of just 0.6 yards before each tackle.
Timeout/replay confusion
In the opening drive of the second half, there was a 2nd and 8, where Mayfield threw a quick out to WR Tez Johnson, which was initially ruled a catch. The Bucs go into the hurry-up offense to avoid a potential review, but call a timeout to regroup. According to HC Todd Bowles, he got the call from upstairs that it was a catch and that they were safe from replay assist, and they would take the timeout in order to regroup the offense. Falcons HC Raheem Morris would end up challenging and would be successful, as it would be overturned to an incompletion. All around, not great, because they fail to pick up the following 3rd and 8, and they would miss the field goal. These are the types of mistakes that simply can’t happen, especially when the Bucs specifically assigned the role of managing time outs to an upstairs headset. This legitimately could have cost them the game if Falcons K Younghoe Koo hadn’t missed the game-tying field goal.
The Ugly
Chase McLaughlin
Chase McLaughlin unfortunately had a very poor game. In his two previous years as the Bucs placekicker, he missed six total kicks. Two field goals in both years, and two extra points last year. Sunday, he missed one of each. The journeyman has had by far the best years of his career here, and I’m near certain he’ll turn it around next week. But Sunday he nearly costs them the game.
The 4 points he cost them changes the math on the final two drives for the Falcons. If he makes the third quarter field goal, the Michael Penix Jr. rushing touchdown TIES the game at 20 instead of giving them the 20-17 lead. Which then would lead to the Bucs holding the ball to give McLaughlin the game winner. If he misses the third-quarter but makes the 4th quarter extra point, there’s no chance for Koo to even attempt to tie the game, the Falcons would NEED to score a touchdown to win 27-24. Now none of those hypotheticals came true, but had it, I believe McLaughlin would be on the hottest seat in the league.
In week 2, the Bucs will face the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football. The Texans are fresh off of a 14-9 loss against the LA Rams, in which QB CJ Stroud threw 19/27 for 188 yards and an interception. He was sacked thrice. The Texans defense surrendered a stellar 21/29 for 245 and 1 TD line for QB Matthew Stafford, though he was also sacked three times. RB Kyren Williams managed 18 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD, and as I mentioned before, slot receiver Puka Nacua had 10 catches for 130 yards.
The last time these two teams faced, QB C.J. Stroud broke the single game rookie passing yard record with 470 yards and 5 touchdowns. The story was a little different for them in 2024. While they did make the playoffs, the offensive line was very, very bad. They traded Laremy Tunsil this offseason and signed OT Cam Robinson who is not an upgrade. They also brought in former pro-bowl OG Laken Tomlinson, who gave up one of the highest pressure rates among all guards last season, and received a PFF grade of 38.8 last week. They also drafted OL Aireontae Ersery from Minnesota in the second round, and he received an even lower grade in week 1, with a 29.4. WR Christian Kirk and CB C.J. Gardner Johnson also joined the team via trade this offseason, though Kirk missed week 1 with injury and has not practiced yet this week. Also notably, RB Nick Chubb has emerged as the starter with RB Joe Mixon set to miss a ton of the season
Unfortunately for Texans fans they are really struggling with the injury bug early. TE Cade Stover, who led the team in catches against the Rams, broke his foot on Sunday and is out indefinitely. Starting Center Jake Andrews is also expected to miss week 2 with a sprained ankle suffered last Sunday. The offensive line in Houston looks like one of the worst in the league. The Bucs defensive line and pass rush caused some chaos in week 1, but they ought to wreak havoc in week 2.
The Texans defensive line, on the other hand, is one of the best in the league, far better than the Atlanta Falcons. They have former defensive rookie of the year EDGE Will Anderson Jr., who had 11 sacks last season, and EDGE Danielle Hunter who had 12. While All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs (as has WR Chris Godwin) has begun to ramp up practices this week, it is unlikely he plays on Monday Night, meaning we will likely see the same scrambled offensive line alignment. Luckily, RT Luke Goedeke returned to practice Saturday after missing Thursday and Friday.
The other significant factor on the Texans defense is CB Derek Stingley Jr., a first team All-Pro last season with 10 interceptions over his last two seasons (only 28 games due to injuries). He did have a rough week one, where he allowed 5 catches on 7 targets for 56 yards and added a missed tackle. It should be expected for him to shadow Mike Evans for the majority of the game, and with the game slot receiver Puka Nacua had last week, expect a massive game again for Emeka Egbuka.
The Bucs are a disappointing 4-10 in the Todd Bowles era in primetime games, with their most recent win alllllll the way back in the 2023 wildcard game against the Philadelphia Eagles. To be fair, all but one primetime game last season were one score games, with two of them going to overtime. The Bucs have a chance very early in the season to change their ways in the Lone Star State, in a homecoming for Texas A&M alumni Mike Evans and Sam Houston Alumni Zyon McCollum, both of whom were born in Galveston, Texas. As a matter of fact, they both attended Ball High School in Galveston.
While the makeshift offensive line and top tier defensive line won’t make for ideal running conditions, nor will it make ideal dropback conditions for Baker Mayfield, this is likely another one of those gritty, nasty games that the Bucs will have to win if they want to make a deep run this season. There’s a good chance that we see at least six total sacks in this game, with both offensive lines so banged up, but with the Texans starting so many backups across the entire field, it’s hard to envision them being any more successful this week than they were last week.
Prediction: W, Bucs 20 – Texans 13
