Bucs Week 3 Preview: Another Win at the Buzzer

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to squeeze out another last second victory on Monday Night Football against the Houston Texans, their first primetime victory since their 2023 Wild Card victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.

The 20-19 victory marked the first time since the AFL-NFL merger that a team has won their first two games on a touchdown scored in the final minute, and Baker Mayfield is the first Quarterback since Brett Favre in 1999 to lead a touchdown drive in the final 2:30 of back to back games. They are the first team to score back to back game winners in the final minute on the road since Miami, also in 1999.

With an upcoming home opener against the New York Jets, and plenty of injury news to cover, let’s take a look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from week 2.

The Good

The Offense improved upon their week 1 performance by quite a bit. Instead of the sluggish start, the Bucs managed to score on their first two drives, including a 20 yard score for everyman do-it-all utility receiver Ryan Miller, the third of his career. They followed up that drive with a 8 minute 44 second march that ended in a 15 yard touchdown for standout rookie Emeka Egbuka, who is now tied for the league lead in touchdown catches through the first two weeks.

Baker Mayfield completed 65.8% of his passes (25/38), with 215 yards passing and another 2 touchdowns, and he added three scrambles for 33 yards, including a 15 yard dash that picked up a 4th and 10 with 1:24 on the clock. Mayfield continues to be unaccounted for as a runner, and it should be expected that he will continue to punish defenses with his legs. This game marked his sixth game winning drive as a Buc, surpassing Gibbs High School Legend Shaun King, and tying with Brad Johnson for seventh in Bucs history. While he did get sacked four times, he has yet to turn the ball over, an impressive feat for the man who threw the most interceptions in the league last season.

While Mike Evans only had 5 catches on 11 targets, he had a game high 56 yards receiving. When faced by CB Derek Stingley, an All-Pro just last year, this is an acceptable performance. He’ll need to hit 60 yards per game for the rest of the season to reach his usual 1000 yards, and he’s still hunting for his first score of the season. He’ll draw another tough matchup in Sauce Gardner next week, who has allowed just 3 catches for 40 yards all year.

The running game had a return to form on Monday Night, posting a 10th straight game of 100+ rushing yards, the longest active streak in the league. They have 16 such games since last season, 4th most in the league. They have continued to run an overwhelming amount of gap runs as opposed to zone, and they’ve had great success. Bucky Irving managed 71 yards on 17 carries, while Rachaad White had 10 carries for 65 yards and the game winning score. While the offensive line continues to struggle with injuries, the Bucs will look to lean on these two for offensive production.

The Bucs Defense had some issues again in week 2 but on the whole it was a very solid performance. Holding a team to 20 points or fewer is a recipe for a winning defense, especially when they expect to rely on an elite offense. They forced three sacks, including one each from Tykee Smith (on a nickel blitz) and Greg Gaines, while Lavonte David and rookie Elijah Roberts combined for the other. They forced a total of 22 pressures on 32 passing plays according to PFF, and Lavonte David also dropped a game sealing interception. Haason Reddick also tied Greg Gaines with a team high 3 QB pressures. 

This pressure output created a hostile environment for Texans QB C.J. Stroud, who only completed 13 of his 24 passes for 207 yards, with the lone Texans touchdown coming on a great throw and even better catch for WR Nico Collins on the opening drive. Collins would only have two other catches all game on nine targets, and there was hardly any offensive output besides him. 

This is a far cry from the Falcons game, where Bijan Robinson scored on a long checkdown, and led the team with 100 receiving yards, Kyle Pitts had 59, and Drake London had 52. While the Texans certainly don’t have weapons of that caliber outside of Collins, the Bucs secondary has been a net positive at stopping number one WR’s like Collins and London, with Collins averaging over 80 yards per game over the last two years, and London averaging 75 last season.

The Texans rushing attack was a near non-factor. RB Nick Chubb had just 18 yards on 11 carries, before he broke off a 25 yard score to take the lead with 2:10 on the clock. While it hasn’t been confirmed (and probably won’t be) there has been mass speculation among Bucs media that an order was *ALLEGEDLY* given to allow a Texans score to ensure that the clock was not run out and that the Bucs would have the ball last. But I digress.

The Bucs run defense has been a thing of beauty this season, looking revamped to its former glory. There were some rough years in the interim, but the combination of SirVocea Dennis (8th highest PFF grade against the run), Zyon McCollum (13th in PFF run grade), and Tykee Smith, who leads the team in tackles by far, have helped build behind an already impressive run-stopping defensive line.

The Clock management at the end of this game is another impressive week-to-week improvement. After last week’s timeout debacle that allowed an Atlanta Falcons review, Todd Bowles saved his timeouts for the 2 minute drill, and they went to the hurry-up offense, getting all the way to the Texans 23 yard line before calling their first time out. In fact, due to the 4th down conversion and ensuing hurry-up snap (resulting in a Cade Otton 8-yard catch), the Texans were forced to use one of their time outs to substitute. They run another three plays and get all the way down to the seven yard line, and the Texans have to use a SECOND time out to substitute in their goal line defense. The Bucs did use their second time out to try for a 2-point attempt (perhaps fearing another blocked kick), but they never even had to use their third time out. As efficient as the 2 minute drill was, they left only six seconds on the clock for the struggling Texans offense.

The Bad

The Bucs Opening drive defense has looked pretty bad in these two first games. It’s already going to be a tough task with touchbacks on kickoffs coming out to the 35 yard line, but giving up catches of 50 yards and 27 yards on checkdowns is not a good look at all. Sure, one of them is Bijan Robinson, who is a consensus top four running back in the league, but the other is Nick Chubb who is 29 and has had two major knee injuries now. It simply can’t keep happening. While it’s common for offensive coordinators to script their opening drives, the Bucs can’t keep giving them 25 free yards out of the necessary 65 yards to score. 

Part of this is due to the play of their middle linebackers. Outside of rookie corner Benjamin Morrison, who was penalized on one of his nine pass coverage snaps, the three middle linebackers for the Bucs have their lowest coverage grades according to PFF, and SirVocea Dennis is by far the worst offender. How poorly do you have to play in coverage to be a top ten run defender (89.0), and have your total grade be below 30.0 ?

According to PFF, Dennis has surrendered 228 yards on 10 catches. Already that sounds pretty bad. 194 of the yards have come after the catch. The next closest player in yards allowed is Detroit’s Terrion Arnold with 175 yards, and only 32 have come after the catch. The next closest player in yards after the catch allowed has only surrendered 97 yards after the catch.

The Bucs’ struggle at inside linebacker has been evident since before Devin White was drafted. While he was a great pass rusher, he simply couldn’t do anything else at even an average level. His successor, K.J. Britt was decent in 2023 but felt like one of the worst linebackers in the league in 2024. But Dennis has already allowed more yards after the catch than Britt in the entirety of last season, and only 49 fewer yards. K.J. Britt played 337 coverage snaps last season. Dennis has played 66 so far this year.

Unfortunately the Offensive line was pretty far from what it’s been in the past. That trend will not auto-correct itself. There won’t be a bounce back game for a while. All-pro LT Tristan Wirfs will remain out this week against the Jets as he rehabs from offseason knee surgery. RT Luke Goedeke, a top five talent at his position, sat almost all week due to a foot injury, tried to play through it before leaving in the second quarter, and now lands himself on the injured reserve. Then after the game, it’s announced that RG Cody Mauch, the only starting lineman from last year playing his natural position, will miss the rest of the year with a knee injury that he sustained during the game and played through. And the cherry on top: practice squad elevation LG Mike Jordan missed multiple practices this week. Because he is a practice squad player and not on the active roster, he is not listed on the injury report, and therefore his status is relatively unknown as of now. That leaves two starters, both playing out of position on the offensive line. That leaves the line up looking more like LT Graham Barton, LG Mike Jordan (or new signee Dan Feeney from the Bills practice squad), C Ben Bredeson, RG Elijah Klein, RT Charlie Heck.

Graham Barton was fantastic in the run game on Monday, but gave up two of the three sacks in the game, which is not entirely surprising given the caliber of pass rush they were facing. Mike Jordan was absolutely fantastic, especially for being a practice squad guy. Don’t be surprised if he gets signed to the active roster in the coming weeks. Ben Bredeson only allowed two pressures while he played out of position, and Cody Mauch had a very average performance. What really stood out was swing Tackle Charlie Heck. He allowed a game-high 8 pressures and a sack in just 68 snaps. It was immediately clear why they chose to shuffle the line rather than allow him to start week one. If he does play again this Sunday he will require constant help whether that means a tight end or help from the Right Guard, whoever that may be. 

The Ugly

The Injuries have significantly lowered the team’s ceiling very early in the year. While I’m certain they’ll get back on track, they will face a brutal four game stretch after this Jets game, where they play the Eagles, 49ers, Lions, and Seahawks, all of whom have great defensive lines. But the injuries aren’t just to the offensive line. WR Chris Godwin will sit once again while recovering from his dislocated ankle last season, WR Jalen McMillan will be out until the Bye week with a neck injury, and now rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is a game time decision on Sunday. While they did manage with a WR core of Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard, and Ryan Miller, they’ll need others to step up, whether that means TE Cade Otton, who’s off to a very quiet start, or more usage of the running backs in the passing game. 

On the defensive side of the ball, they lost DT Calijah Kancey who had 5 pressures through two games, and was expected to break out this season after missing much of his first two years with calf injuries. He will be out for the season with a torn pec.

The Special teams units were rough. Nearly cost them the game type of rough. Not only did they allow a blocked punt late in the game, they allowed a long return as well to set up the Nick Chubb touchdown. Yes it looked like it should have been penalized, but there’s no world where they should miss that many tackles. 

K Chase McLaughlin continues to struggle, missing another kick in an indoor environment. If he misses another this week I wouldn’t be surprised if the front office takes action. This is another case of changing the math at the end of the game. While the Nick Chubb touchdown would still give the Texans a late 19-17 lead before the PAT, they would have likely gone for two and still missed. Which would mean they would have been able to go back to McLaughlin to win the game. With him struggling, you have to wonder if they will get more aggressive inside the 50, choosing to go for it on fourth down more often to avoid kicking, or whether they throw more often to avoid 4th downs altogether. 

The Bucs are now 5-10 in the Todd Bowles Era in night games, but remain 8-0 in the first two weeks of every season in the Bowles Era, and an impressive 12-2 since he became Defensive Coordinator in 2019. Bowles is looking to get the team to 3-0 with a victory this week, which could be the first 3-0 start for a Bucs team since 2005 (Jon Gruden), with the only others coming in 2000 (Tony Dungy), 1997 (Tony Dungy), and 1979 (John McKay). If they can manage to stack more wins early this year, Bowles will have a decent shot at passing Tony Dungy for second place in Head Coach win percentage in Bucs history.

The Bucs will face the New York Jets in their Home opener where they will wear the 1976 White and Creamsicle jerseys. This is something of a revenge game for Todd Bowles, who was fired by the Jets in 2018. It’s also a revenge game for Haason Reddick who was traded to the Jets by the Eagles and then immediately held out most of the season while seeking an extension. And finally, Jets QB Tyrod Taylor, replacing the injured Justin Fields, was replaced as Cleveland Browns starter by Baker Mayfield all the way back in 2018 as well.

The Jets are off to a rough start, including losses to the Steelers and Bills. They’ve allowed 30 points both games, and will also be missing starting EDGE Jermaine Johnson. The offense looked pretty great against the Steelers and abysmal against the Bills in all facets of the game. They notably allowed over 130 yards and two touchdowns for Bills RB James Cook.

There’s honestly not much else to say. The offense struggled when Justin Fields was healthy last week, and the defense just doesn’t look good, especially the defensive secondary, despite Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams early performances.

If the Bucs were playing at full strength this game would not even be a question to me. But due to the injuries, the upcoming schedule, their history against backup QBs, the hype and spectacle around the jerseys, did I mention the injuries? The Jets could absolutely drag this game into the mud, and they’re hungry for the first win in new HC Aaron Glenn’s tenure. While I don’t think they’ll lose, I think we’re in for another run heavy, ugly win.

Prediction: Bucs Win, 23-17