Bucs Week 5: A Trek To Seattle
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers luck ran out on Sunday against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles in a 31-25 loss, their first of the year. While it was a very ugly first half, they played a fantastic second half that allowed them to have a chance to send the game to overtime at the end of the game. While you hate to see a loss, and obviously there are no moral victories in the NFL, the way the defense played in the second half is definitely a silver lining. That being said, let’s take a look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from this top-shelf NFC matchup.
The Good
The brightest spot in this game is that the Bucs didn’t give up in this game. For nearly my entire life I’ve watched Bucs teams with no fight in them, no will to win. In fact I would argue that even as recently as last season we saw a team that struggled to stay in games, much less come from behind. But they showed a lot of grit this past weekend, and it’s an overwhelmingly positive sign for the Blue-Medical-Tent Buccaneers.
In terms of defense, this is the best the Bucs have looked in a number of years. They’ve surrendered just 1,091 yards to opposing offenses this year (4th in the league), including just 751 yards passing (9th), 340 yards rushing (4th), with 37.2 percent of drives ending in a score (9th), all while only forcing 2 turnovers this year (27th). They would also rank in the top ten in points allowed if you didn’t count the two blocked kicks returned for scores.
While the run defense has remained fairly consistent over the last 6 years, the Bucs secondary has been an absolute revelation in part due to their two rookie defensive backs in NCB Jacob Parrish and CB Benjamin Morrison, as well as a career renaissance for CB Jamel Dean. According to PFF, the Bucs secondary surrendered just 48 passing yards as a unit. In fact, the team as a whole held QB Jalen Hurts to 0 yards passing across 0 completions on 8 attempts.
When you hold a generational talent like RB Saquon Barkley to just 2.3 yards per carry on 19 attempts, you’re doing something right. While he did add 4 catches for 31 yards, he was largely contained in the Tampa Bay heat, which is all you can ask for, especially in a game you have to come from behind in.
While QB Jalen Hurts had 9 carries for 62 yards, only 20 of his yards came in the second half, with 0 to ice the game in the fourth. He wasn’t asked to run by design at all, and he still got sacked twice by NT Vita Vea. Any time you can limit an (alleged) superstar Quarterback to fewer than 200 yards of offense, you should absolutely be winning the game.
One of the reasons they managed to stay in this game offensively was RB Bucky Irving, who became the first Buccaneers running back since… you guessed it, Jacquizz Rodgers (2018) to have 100+ receiving yards in a game. He was also the first player in franchise history with 100+ receiving yards and 50+ rushing yards in the same game.
Most of the receiving yardage was due to his 72 yard receiving touchdown, which happened on a scramble drill where QB Baker Mayfield had nowhere to go, stepped out of the pocket, and then stepped back up and into the pocket and delivered to Irving who had headed up field. But this wasn’t the only play Mayfield delivered outside of the design of a play.
Just two drives earlier, OC Josh Grizzard dialed up a designed rollout to Mayfield’s right with TE Cade Otton as an escort blocker, and Mayfield was not able to find his primary receiver on the underneath route, so he heaved one up for WR Emeka Egbuka, fitting it right between the safeties before the rookie took it the rest of the way for a 77 yard score.
Both of these plays are examples of the Bucs offense working extremely well OUTSIDE of the structure of the offense, a curious trend to keep an eye on.
I said last week that I hit my season word limit writing about Special Teams for the Bucs last week, but then Chase McLaughlin had to go make NFL history his 65 yard field goal is the longest successful kick in an outdoor stadium in NFL history, breaking Matt Prater’s previous altitude-assisted record at Mile High Stadium in Denver of 64 yards.
He tied Brandon Aubrey’s record for longest field goal in a losing effort, and was one yard short of Justin Tucker’s overall record of 66 yards, which bounced in off the crossbar in an indoor stadium. He also beat Matt Bryant’s record of 62 yards for the longest kick in Bucs history, and became the first Buc to hit multiple 55+ yard field goals in the same game. After some early struggles, Money McLaughlin is on a heater on Dale Mabry Highway.
The Bad
As good as the numbers look in this victory, the Bucs really struggled to move the ball outside of the two touchdowns. Without them, Baker Mayfield only had 20 completions on 38 attempts for 140 yards and an interception. With no Mike Evans the Bucs were left with rehabbing Chris Godwin Jr. and rookie Emeka Egbuka to lead the Wide Receiver room. They combined for just 7 catches on 20 targets against a very physical Philly secondary. While I could whine about referees for a second week in a row, I will choose not to, because good teams find wins, not excuses.
The truth is the Bucs were right there with a chance to tie the game when it mattered most, and even when Baker turned the ball over on the goal line, they had another opportunity after that as well. Not only did they shoot themselves in the foot with the interception, they had already turned the ball over with the Bucky Irving fumble (that I’m sure will get the fumble rule changed at the end of the year), and it led directly to an Eagles touchdown, their only second half score.
As for the Baker Mayfield interception… you win some and you lose some. That’s a play he’s seemingly routinely made this year, and it’s a typical Baker Mayfield gunslinging throw. If he makes the play, he gets lauded, but if he doesn’t even throw it, and the drive stalls, some fan with All-22 footage and a dream will tweet out a screenshot of Chris Godwin in the back corner open. You win some and you some, but it turns out you lose more when the ball gets tipped at the line.
A ton of the offensive struggles come down to the offensive line’s play on Sunday. Four out of the five starting linemen for the Bucs landed in the bottom five of all Bucs PFF grades on offense (all of them except for Tristan Wirfs, who didn’t have a preseason), and it showed.
Baker was pressured 27 times, the most since week 2 against Houston, and the run game struggled to get off the ground for much of the game. While they will still have backups at both Right Guard and Right Tackle for the foreseeable future, the left side of the line is now intact. Perhaps there will be a readjustment period for Graham Barton and Ben Bredeson, both of whom have slotted back to their original positions. While the Eagles interior defensive line is star studded, neither of them had crazy games in the run game or as pass rushers, which could be viewed as a win. Either way the Bucs will need to find a fast solution against a defense that racked up six sacks against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Ugly
Now for the moment you’ve undoubtedly been waiting for: Something needs to change in the Special Teams rooms.
The Bucs have now had three kicks blocked this season, a number most teams won’t see all year, and the Special Teams woes can ultimately be blamed for costing the Bucs the game. Punter Riley Dixon is already one of the most-oft blocked punters in the league, and it turns out that pairing him with a special teams coordinator who allowed the fifth most blocked kicks in the league at his last stop is a very bad idea. According to Thomas McGaughey’s press conferences this week, they made some changes to their personnel in preparation for Seattle, but if another kick gets blocked you can expect that someone will get fired. It would be a real shame if the Bucs lost more than 1 game this year due to poor blocking on kicks.
It’s a real shame that the Special Teams unit as a whole has struggled this year, because it has largely prevented me from acknowledging the revelation of Kameron Johnson. So far this season he’s returned 10 punts for 159 yards, with a long of 54 yards. His 159 yards and 15.9 yards per return both place him at 4th in the league, and it’s kept them in games including against Atlanta, where he dropped the offense off directly in the red zone after a 54 yard return, and this past week against the Eagles where his 46 yard and 27 yard returns helped flip the field position.
Boy, the Bucs just can’t stay healthy huh? As of writing this, the Bucs will be down five key players against Seattle (not counting the three on injured reserve, two of whom are done for the year), including Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Jamel Dean, Benjamin Morrison, and Christian Izien.
There were so many players needing extra rest days earlier this week that the Bucs converted one of their practices into a walk through. There’s a real wonder in my mind if the Bucs even have enough healthy bodies to put on the field, much less play competitively after one of the longest flights an NFL team will make this year.
The most concerning of these injuries are the trio of defensive backs, two of their top three outside corners and their top replacement on the outside.While it’s expected that rookie Nickel Corner Jacob Parrish will play outside this week, HC Todd Bowles hinted at Bucs newcomer and usual healthy scratch Kindle Vildor may mix in as well as Josh Hayes who I’m sure Bucs fans have nothing negative to say about after last season. The Bucs will need to continue to rely on their gritty next-man-up mentality to hang onto games.
Obviously the loss of Bucky Irving for this game will be felt heavily in the offense, but the duo of Rachaad White and secret weapon Sean Tucker ought to be able to get the job done. Rachaad White has shown flashes over the last few weeks and could greatly benefit from the increased workload, and Sean Tucker sneakily led running backs in the NFL in yards per carry (minimum 50 attempts) last season with 6.2 YPC. The Seahawks defense has posted three straight games of allowing fewer than 100 yards on the ground, and the Bucs will look to break that streak this week.
The Seahawks are dealing with a nasty little injury bug of their own, with DE Demarcus Lawrence, S Julian Love, and CB Devon Witherspoon all set to miss this game, which ought to bode well for a Bucs offense that looks a little more put together than they have in previous weeks.
Ultimately this game will come down to the Wide Receiver rooms for both teams. Without Witherspoon and Love, how will Egbuka and Godwin capitalize on struggling Seattle Cornerbacks like Tariq Woolen and Josh Jobe? On the flip side, how will Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp perform with Jacob Parrish and Zyon McCollum on the outside?
I think it’s safe to assume that Smith-Njigba has a big game. The Bucs have yet to give up a big game to a WR this season, but with so many injuries in the secondary, it’ll be no wonder if JSN has a stellar day given that he is second in the league in yards at the moment, trailing only the incomparable Puka Nacua. Meanwhile Kupp has been relatively quiet so far, which almost scares me more given his history against this franchise.
I think that the Bucs WR’s have a real shot at making massive improvements upon this past week’s performance, particularly Chris Godwin Jr., who was also quiet this past week. Another sneaky breakout this week is Cade Otton, who’s been largely silent due to his blocking workload with having the offensive line out. But the Seahawks have been one of, if not the worst defenses against tight ends. The Seahawks have surrendered 31 catches for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns to Tight Ends this year, all amongst the worst in the NFL.
Meanwhile I expect both run games to stay relatively quiet especially with Bucky Irving out, as the Bucs defense is 5th in yards per game and the Seahawks defense is 6th, but notably the Seahawks are the only team in the league yet to surrender a score on the ground. Both of these teams started the year hot, and look to grab an early win in the near certain playoff race. Much like last week, this game could very well be the difference maker on whether the Bucs have a playoff game at home again this year or not.
In a game of former Panthers Quarterbacks, it’ll need to come down to who’s injury replacements in the secondary can fill the role best, and which Quarterback-Wide Receiver matchup can take better advantage of potentially rough defensive secondaries. While I think the Bucs are a much better team on paper, this matchup ought to be close once again.
Prediction: Bucs Win, 33-31
