RBLR Rays Roundtable #34 – Roster Decisions, the Rotation, and the New Face of the Franchise
This week, our writers previewed arguably the biggest option decision, dissected Neander’s end of year press conference, reviewed the rotation, and reflected on Caminero’s breakout season – on and off the field.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Brandon Lowe’s option decision
After a difficult and frustrating season, the Rays missed the playoffs for a second consecutive season and have a big option on the table entering a pivotal offseason, that being All-Star 2nd baseman Brandon Lowe.
He had a solid season on the offensive side of the plate posting a 114 wRC+, but Lowe was nowhere near as good defensively with his -13 OAA and -14 DRS. He played the second most games in a season for his career, but Lowe’s fWAR landed at just 1.7.
So, with an $11.5 million dollar club option pending, is it worth committing an eighth of the budget to the oft-injured Lowe? It’s extremely difficult to justify him occupying an eighth of the payroll next season. His defense last season was almost unplayable. Lowe’s bat taking steps back in terms of swing decisions and contact rates is also a pretty large red flag to go alongside the raw offensive production taking a decline, especially with his platoon splits being so drastic, as he only posted a 49 wRC+ vs southpaws.
So is it worth this Rays team that desperately needs to improve this roster to spend an eighth of their player payroll on someone that is generally unavailable and has extreme platoon splits?
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Neander’s end of year press conference
Obviously, the Rays were disappointing this season. Injuries and underperformance (where have we heard that one before?) following the incredible run of baseball in June sunk the team into the below .500 state they ended as. But what does the front office think? Luckily, Erik Neander went on his annual post season press conference and gave his thoughts on the season now behind Tampa Bay. Here are two key takeaways from that interview:
Erik Neander thinks returning to Tropicana Field will help the team on the field next season. Tampa Bay pitching gave up the 3rd highest HR/FB ratio in the major leagues this year, and part of it was due to the way they traditionally pitch, which involves a lot of power arms that throw up in the zone, which at a smaller park, leaves you liable for giving up more cheap home runs, which the Rays did. Returning to Tropicana Field should balance out the home run luck next year, and should allow the Rays to be better in the run prevention department, a department that is traditionally in the top of the league.
Neander is quietly concerned about the outfield. He cited a couple things in particular, one that Christopher Morel and Josh Lowe both had “signature seasons” in 2023 but have faltered due to injury and other factors since. Unfortunately, 2023 was now 2 full seasons ago, and I believe it’s hard to fully know what you have in these guys if you haven’t seen what they CAN be in at least 2 years. He also discussed Jonny DeLuca, speaking highly of his abilities at the plate vs LHP, but more importantly, about his defensive ability in CF. He will most likely be on the opening day roster next year, but with his injuries last year, I could see the Rays potentially looking at another option in CF.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Rotation in review
The Tampa Bay Rays finished 2025 with a 77-85 record, a slightly underwhelming season; however, it was in line with the expected outcomes. Personally, I saw the Rays as a team that would be plus or minus four games around .500.
The reason this season is predictable, if underwhelming, is the Rays are still in a rebuild that was never meant to happen. If a Rays fan or baseball fan in general looked back to July 2023, this outcome would seem unfathomable. The team was experiencing a 3-year run that could culminate in two 100-win seasons and three straight postseason appearances. The Rays had their first true superstar positional player since the early years of Evan Longoria, a deep positional group that, along with the Rays’ pitching machine, looked to be a perennial playoff team.
With playoff randomness, anything could happen from that point. However, due to actions completely outside of the franchise’s control and poor injury luck, the team is in a mini-rebuild. Not bad enough to be a cellar team, not good enough in its current state to be a genuine threat in the post-season.
Starting pitching is relatively set for the majority of the rotation, as you have three starters who could all realistically be 3+ fWAR starters next season with the move back to Tropicana. Rasmussen, Pepiot, and Baz all experienced significant jumps in HR/FB rate compared to 2024, which was expected at Steinbrenner Field. FIP weighs HRs rather heavily, and HRs were an issue for all three, with Pepiot in particular seeing a .67 increase in HR/9 rate and a .52 point increase in FIP at home compared to away.
Traditionally, those are not home and away splits experienced with Rays pitchers. All three, barring poor health, should be close to above-average starters or better (+3.0 fWAR) going into next year, with Drew Rasmussen possibly being a valid CY Young candidate if healthy. Drew also expirenced a career high in HR/9 at 1.08 (1.2 HR/9 at home) vs. a 0.80 HR/9 career average. Overall Baz, Pepiot, and Rasmussen give the Rays 3 average to possibly above average starters that can throw high quality innings that will earn wins more often then not.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Caminero’s growth and future
As the Rays closed out a disappointing 2025 season, all eyes weren’t on the standings—they were on Junior Caminero. The 22-year-old third baseman entered the final game having hit 45 home runs, just one shy of Carlos Peña’s single-season club record.
Though Caminero ultimately fell short of the record, his 45-homer season is still a statement—especially considering this is just his third major league season. He has clearly established himself as a cornerstone talent and a young star the Rays can build around for years to come.
Caminero knows the spotlight he’s in. In an interview with FanDuel Sports Network Sun just before the final game, he shared that he plans to spend the offseason improving his English to better communicate with teammates, handle the responsibilities that come with being the face of the franchise, and serve as a positive example for younger players and fans.
That kind of self-awareness immediately made an impression on me. Caminero isn’t just confident in his talent—he’s intentional about his growth, shaping the way he impacts the team and the community. Especially for a franchise that recently faced something unfortunate with a young star we don’t need to name, it’s a refreshing sign of maturity.
Now, Caminero’s long-term future with the team remains uncertain, it appears as the Rays have yet to engage him in extension talks. While an extension would certainly be in the Rays’ favor—securing a product of their farm system who has quickly become a fan favorite—the ongoing ownership transition and evolving financial priorities make it unclear when a deal might be reached.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
