Bucs look to Bounce Back Against Division Rivals
The Bucs suffered their first road loss of the season on Monday Night Football, suffering a 24-9 loss on primetime football that felt like 45-3. Even when they had a shot to make it a one score game they just couldn’t move the ball downfield. You don’t even need the All-22 footage to know that no one was open.
The bottom line is that despite all the injuries and suspensions, the Lions fought through and had a very impressive game from their defense. In fact I would argue it was one of the more impressive defensive performances of the year by any team. Going into Monday, the Bucs were absolutely in the discussion to be a top five offense in the NFL even without their RB1, RT1, RG1 and RG2, WR1, 2, and 4. The Lions showed us that the Bucs aren’t immune to the injuries.
Yeah, the Bucs lost to the Eagles, but this is the first loss that really felt like a loss. It was an ugly, ugly loss, but it wasn’t even a blowout. The truth is, they were due for a stinker. This is not the version of a stinker I was expecting (even though we probably should have).
The Bucs have been playing with house money all year. Who in their right mind would expect the Bucs to be 3-0 to start the year without their starting Left Tackle and their second best receiver, and two road games to open the year? Who would expect them to lose their WR1 and their Right Tackle during that span, their running back a week later, and still be 5-1?
Obviously, this loss was a disaster in front of a captive national audience. You hate to see this kind of stinker while your quarterback and wide receiver are in MVP and Rookie of the Year discussions. But the season doesn’t come down to a week seven performance no matter who the opponent is. Yeah, for playoff seeding purposes, this game could matter. But ultimately, this is a game to sweep under the rug and memory-hole before a divisional matchup against New Orleans before the Bucs can get to a desperately needed bye week.
The Good
The defense kept them in this game, which is a function of building your defense around stopping the run. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs went 78 yards essentially untouched, on a play where rookie Elijah Roberts doesn’t quite fill his gap, and both he and Lavonte David both definitely maybe certainly get held for just enough time for Gibbs to scamper past, and just short enough of it being a really egregious penalty. All in all it was exactly how the Lions drew it up. But outside of that, the Lions averaged less than three yards per carry on 30 rush attempts as a team.
Additionally, the Bucs intercepted Jared Goff’s only pass over 20 yards, and besides the touchdown where rookie Jacob Parrish lost his footing (one of three times that a Bucs player straight up fell down on the opening drive), Jared Goff completed one pass with 10+ air yards. Granted, it went for 24 yards because the Bucs seemed to forget how to tackle, but keeping Jared Goff to 1/7 for 24 yards and interception is not a bad performance with the array of weapons at his fingertips.
The Bucs also logged four sacks, including another for Safety Tykee Smith, who is the only player in the league with at least two sacks, at least 50 tackles, and at least 5 passes defensed. Yaya Diaby also forced a fumble with his sack, matching his highest single season total of… one. Still, Diaby is already up to four sacks on the year, when he had just four and a half last season during his semi-sophomore slump.
Perhaps the brightest spot on the defense has been Jamel Dean, who has three interceptions in the four games he’s played in, which is a career high, and good for a seven way tie for third in the NFL so far this year. Of course, he does it in a contract year after taking a pay cut, and the Bucs are almost assuredly not intending to bring him back. At least they weren’t headed into the season.
All in all, the Bucs defense had the winning formula. It’s not often that a team wins by 15 while turning the ball over twice and letting their quarterback get sacked four times. And yet…
The Bad
The Bucs inability to run the ball effectively really hurt them in this game. They used it sparingly to start the game in part because they got off schedule very quickly in their first two drives and could not convert third downs early. Not only was the offense set up with bad field position to start the game due to a hold called on the kick return, but Baker Mayfield was forced to take a sack. The second drive was put on pause after a Cade Otton false start.
There’s no scenario where you want to be throwing the ball 50 times in a game. Especially if your quarterback is getting less than 300 yards total. There’s not a scenario where handing the ball off eleven times is effective either.
It’s even worse because this game did not need to be played this way at all. The Bucs were only down a maximum of two scores for the whole night. The Bucs were only down 14-0 in the first half, and only ran the ball three times for eleven yards. Whether you have your starting running back or not, you have to be able to stick to the run.
The Bucs were not mathematically eliminated from this game until their failed 4th down conversion with about two minutes left in the game, but they played like they had an Uber Eats driver playing running back. Their only touchdown drive was the only drive they handed the ball off multiple times, with Rachaad White going four carries for fifteen yards. It’s not an impressive number, but running the ball keeps the defense honest.
Having Mike Evans healthy keeps defenses honest too, and unfortunately the injury bug bites again. And this is a big one. Missing Evans for the latter half of the season (it’s unclear when he returns), is about as devastating an injury that I can remember in Bucs history, from both an on-field perspective as well as an emotional perspective. Only a handful of Bucs players have played more games for the franchise, and it was hard to watch the active leader, Lavonte David, standing amongst the training staff tending to Evans.
You have to wonder when the Bucs can get healthy, as it’s not even necessarily going to be helped by the bye week after the upcoming game against the New Orleans Saints. Evans is the ninth player on the Injured Reserve, a total of six major contributors, including the starting right tackle, Luke Goedeke, the starting defensive tackle, Calijah Kancey, the starting right guard, Cody Mauch, the fourth wide receiver (who would be the second wide receiver at the moment), Jalen McMillan, and utility tight end Ko Kieft. They’ll also be missing four other starters for at least another game, including first running back Bucky Irving, second wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr., replacement right guard Luke Haggard, and starting edge rusher Haason Reddick. Superstar nose tackle Vita Vea is also questionable.
Obviously there would eventually be struggles offensively with that many key contributors out for significant time, but the Bucs had been blessed with a little bit of luck and some clutch fourth quarter performances. But I’ve got a nagging feeling that the Bucs will continue to struggle, and it won’t just be the offense if they can’t rebound against the Saints and get healthy in the bye week.
The Ugly
There’s the famous quote from Bucs assistant Tom Moore that there’s less than a 7% chance of a touchdown on a drive where the quarterback is sacked, and the Bucs definitely felt that pressure all night. They seemed to live in two tight end sets, with Cade Otton logging 97% of snaps and Payne Durham logging 35% of snaps. That’s the sixth highest snap count of Payne Durham’s career when both he and Otton are healthy. Unfortunately they were very often in maximum protection looks due to the pressure situation. It is nearly impossible to get an open receiver with two tight ends and a running back all dedicated to blocking. And it wasn’t as if the Bucs were doing this unnecessarily.
The Lions defensive line had one of the best games of the year so far by a defensive line, pressuring Mayfield 40 times, which would amount to 80% of his dropbacks, though Pro Football Reference logged it as 28 pressures, which is still pretty abysmal. Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson of course led the pack with twelve pressures according to PFF despite not managing a sack, but he was an absolute game wrecker, to the point that Tristan Wirfs even switched back to right tackle for a snap to combat his non stop assault. The interior rushers for the Lions also feasted and it seems clear from my perspective that the combination of Graham Barton-Mike Jordan-Charlie Heck is absolutely untenable going forward especially against teams with even above average defensive lines.
Obviously, this was not an environment where Baker Mayfield was set up for success. Between the lack of run game, the lack of effective screen game, and the near complete lack of play action (only eight dropbacks), there were very few tools at his disposal to limit pressure, much less manage it. Not only that, his top target is a rookie who was very obviously not 100% for that game, and his other top wide receivers are a veteran who was on the practice squad exactly a year ago, a seventh round rookie, and a former undrafted rookie who only made the roster to return kicks.
But even accounting for these factors, his receivers running the wrong routes and the right side of his line turning into traffic cones, he simply had a bad game. It was bound to happen eventually. His two lowest passer ratings in a Bucs uniform have come against the Lions, and at this point it seems as though they’ve got him figured out.
He had a few passes get tipped at the line early on, and he missed high on quite a few passes, as though he was avoiding throwing more tipped passes. The batted passes have been an issue every year of his career, and he’s routinely ranked in the bottom ten in the league. But he had quietly been more towards the middle of the pack this year, and it would be really nice if this issue stayed buried.
The turnovers were absolute back breakers. The Sterling Shepard fumble was unfortunately just a very well-timed punch by the defender. He manages to time his punch exactly as Shepard is tucking the ball so that he can run, and he loses the ball for just the fourth time in his career. As for the interception… I’m not necessarily sure what else Otton is meant to do as a receiver. Mayfield ‘throws him open’ so to speak, putting it in a place where only Otton can get it. Otton manages to snag it with one hand, brings it into his chest… and allegedly loses control of the ball.
I disagree with overturning the call, because I don’t see any evidence that Otton explicitly loses control of the ball, much less that the defender gains it. I would have the same opinion on overturning this call if the original call were interception as well. I just simply don’t see enough evidence in either direction, and therefore the call on the field should have stood. Dean Blandino said much the same on a SiriusXM show as reported by JoeBucsFan. While the Bucs did get the ball back with enough time to get a field goal, it killed a drive on its opening play and wrecked any momentum they had after getting a quick stop in the four minute drill.
It was a poorly officiated game in both directions in my opinion, and it stands out in a host of games that have been poorly officiated this season in the NFL. But that’s just the way it goes in sports. It should be expected that the pendulum will eventually swing back in their direction in terms of both injuries and penalties. It’s been an exhausting 5-2 start that feels like it’s been impossible to get to. But all will be rewarded later this season, and the Bucs will get a jump on their significantly easier second half schedule this week with the 1-6 New Orleans Saints.
Prediction: Bucs Win, 35-18
The Saints are better than their record suggests, but by how much is the real question. They stayed with the Bills for much of their matchup, and it seemed impressive at the time, but the Bills went on to lose two in a row against presumably inferior competition. The Saints also only lost to the Patriots by six points, but the Patriots are largely untested outside of their game against the Bills. The Saints only win is against the New York Giants in the second start of Jaxson Dart’s career.
The Bucs absolutely cannot let this team trap them before the bye week. It’s tempting, and I feel like I’ve seen this movie a bajillion times before: the team is coming off their toughest stretch of the year and they’re headed for a much needed bye week. In fact they’re 2-4 in the last six years in the week before the bye.
The Bucs need this game very, very badly, not just for the sake of the record, but for the sake of confidence from the team and confidence in the team. Plus, it’s the Saints, whom I hate more than any professional sports franchise not from Philadelphia or Boston. For all the pain they caused me in the Lost Decade, they deserve these years of humiliation at the bottom of the league standings.
The Saints defense is not particularly good by any statistical measure. While they’ve allowed the 12th fewest yards through the air, that’s a function of teams not needing to pass, as they’re in the bottom ten in both yards per attempt and yards per completion, as well as the 6th worst passer rating. They’ve surrendered the 5th most touchdowns through the air this season, and the third highest percentage of passing attempts going for touchdowns. They’re tied for 11th fewest sacks this year despite facing three of the bottom ten quarterbacks by sack percentage (number of times sacked divided by number of dropbacks). They’ve seen the second most rushing attempts in the league and they aren’t anything more than average at stopping the run, but due to sheer volume they rank 8th in rushing by yards allowed.
The offense hasn’t been much of a bright spot either, from a statistical standpoint. They’ve had to play from behind quite a bit to start the season, and workhorse running back Alvin Kamara is averaging the lowest yards per touch of his career on top of that. Chris Olave has been struggling, averaging the lowest yards per reception of his career despite the highest volume of his career. Rashid Shaheed has also seen an uptick in volume, and his yardage efficiency has plummeted as well. Though both receivers are quickly approaching career highs in touchdowns, Spencer Rattler only has eight passing touchdowns through their seven games.
All in all, not much has gone the Saints way this season. The trend ought to continue. The Bucs will need to do all the usuals: establish the run, win the turnover battle, control time of possession, and get pressure on the quarterback.
Don’t let recency bias cloud your judgement. We know who this Bucs team is. This team has fought and fought and fought all year long through every trial and tribulation known to man. The Saints have absolutely no business even thinking they can stay in this game. Despite all the injuries, the Bucs beat this team badly last year (to the tune of a franchise record 594 yards), and the Saints are largely the exact same team. The Bucs will look to go 2-0 in divisional play in a bounce back game before the bye week against a team they swept by a 32 point margin.
