Bucs Weekly: Grades & Reactions at the Bye Week
6-2.
The best start since 2002.
Wins over the Seahawks and 49ers, the current three and six seeds in the NFC Playoff race.
Wins over the Texans and Falcons (who swept them last year), while both teams are In The Hunt.
Only 36% of opponent drives have led to a score, tied for ninth best in the league, and 14% of opponent drives have ended in a turnover, fifth best in the league.
Third in pressures, Third in sacks, seventh in quarterback hits, and second in tackles for loss.
Tied for second in sacks on third down (11).
Fourth in pressures and third in pressure rate on third down.
They’re now tenth in pressures and tied for sixth in sacks without a blitz.
They allow the fewest yds/gm on 3rd down and are 2nd in EPA/play on 3rd down.
They are eleventh in third down conversion and tied for third in fourth down conversions.
Sixth in yards per rushing attempt despite facing Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker III, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs, all of whom rank in the top 20 in yards per attempt.
They also faced Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, both of whom are in the top 15 in yards.
Defensively, they lead the league in Havoc, which means they create a pressure, tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup on 42.8% of all plays.
And they’ve managed all this with an unsustainable amount of injuries.
Superstar X Receiver Mike Evans has missed four and most of a fifth game, and will be out until week fifteen at the earliest.
Star WR2 Chris Godwin Jr. has missed six games.
Star RT Luke Goedeke has been on injured reserve for six games after leaving midway through week 2’s Texans matchup.
Third string RG Luke Haggard left the last two games after leaving during the fourth quarter of the 49ers game.
Superstar RB Bucky Irving has missed four games.
DL Calijah Kancey has missed six games after leaving against the Texans as well, and will be out until the playoffs at minimum.
Do-it-all TE/FB/Utility Ko Kieft has missed five games this year and won’t come back.
RG Cody Mauch tore his ACL against the Texans, finished the game, and won’t come back this year either.
All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs missed the first three games as well.
OLB Haason Reddick missed the last game and there’s no timetable for his return.
Throw in five combined missed games from their top three outside corners, and the fact that we have yet to see WR Jalen McMillan, who broke his neck in the preseason, and you get a good idea of what the Bucs have had to do. It’s been ugly.
No wonder the offense has sputtered over the last two weeks.
But nevertheless…
6-2.
The Bucs beat the brakes off the Saints in week eight, in a 23-3 victory that should have been 37-0, and very well could have been 90-0. This marks a third straight victory over the Ain’ts, and six of the last seven which dates back to 2022.
The defense was the real star of the show, managing more sacks than points allowed and more turnovers than points allowed.
Anthony Nelson had the game of a lifetime while starting in place of Haason Reddick. After forcing a fumble on the first drive, tripping up Spencer Rattler for a sack on the second drive, he upped the ante on the third drive by tipping a pass in the flat before catching it, bulldozing poor Spencer Rattler, and quite literally walking into the endzone, and making up for the terrible playcalling of the prior goal line sequence.
While it’s unfair to expect anything close to this kind of performance on a regular basis, it’s fair to ask if he’ll be leaned on a little more heavily in the future of the rotation. While he lacks any sort of coverage ability and often struggles against the run (unless your name is Chubba Hubbard), his abilities as a pure pass rusher should not be overlooked.
Antoine Winfield Jr. could have had the game of a lifetime if not for two early/inadvertent whistles, which would have given the Bucs a second and third defensive touchdown of the game.
After a Jamel Dean punch out (second of the year, and most of his career), Winfield picked the ball up and took it straight to the bank, completely untouched. Of course, no players on the field reacted as though a whistle were blown, but referees alleged that one of them blew a whistle from the opposite side of the field (I have yet to find a broadcast angle that demonstrates a whistle). After the ball was taken back to where he recovered it, the Bucs hand the ball off before Mayfield is sacked twice, the second of which leads to a fumble and a free field goal. Absolutely a massive mistake by the referee’s that would have cost us the game if we were a terrible team.
After Rattler gets benched, and with a 17-3 lead, the Saints are driving with 26 year old rookie Tyler Shough. On 1st and 10 with 2:04 on the clock near midfield, Shough looks to his right and finds Rashid Shaheed, who gets the ball punched out by Zyon McCollum as he turns upfield. Winfield Jr. recovers, and returns it for a touchdown as whistles blow, and replay assist overturns it as an incomplete pass. Whatever.
Two plays later, Shough finds Chris Olave on a quick hitter, and Winfield Jr. quite literally rips it out of his hands, and the whistle blows early, as he didn’t gain possession of the ball until after he was no longer being touched by Olave. Ok. Fine.
After an up and down injury riddled season, Winfield Jr. has had an impressive bounce back year already. While he doesn’t have the gaudy numbers of his All-Pro seasons (6 fumbles forced, for example), he’s turned back into a very good safety in a very good secondary as opposed to a mediocre safety having to cover for everyone else’s mistakes in an injury riddled secondary.
The pass rush had a great game despite being down apex pass rusher Haason Reddick (or Haason Reddick-Shoyinka, as some have come to call him), with the defense putting up a 29 pressure outing according to PFF, the most they’ve had since the week three thumping of Tyrod Taylor.
Anthony Nelson, of course, led the pack with 2.0 sacks on five pressures, and Chris Braswell had five pressures as well, but failed to convert, although he got real close multiple times. Yaya Diaby and Markees Watts had another four each, but only combined for a half sack according to the NFL boxscore, though SirVocea Dennis and Jacob Parrish each get credit for 1.0, meaning that third round Nickel Corner Jacob Parrish is now tied for second in sacks among rookies with 2.0. Pretty disappointing crop of defensive linemen so far, from what some (including myself) touted as a great class.
As a unit, the defense was altogether great, as they ought to be against a pretty awful Saints team, but I’ve seen Todd Bowles get carved by Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew II, and 8 million year old, ever-immobile Kirk Cousins who threw for over 780 yards and 8 touchdowns against the Bucs alone just last year.
The personnel is mostly the same, with a few small tweaks, including Reddick for Tryon-Shoyinka, Dennis for Britt, and effectively Jacob Parrish for Jordan Whitehead, but a combination of health and career best years have the Bucs putting themselves in conversations as a top ten unit in the NFL, something the Bucs have not had for quite a few years.
The offense, on the other hand, has been stagnant, and last Sunday was borderline ugly.
After throwing the ball 50 times against the Lions, the Bucs handed the ball off 29 times, their third highest total in a game this season, and for a lower average than any game other than the week five matchup against the Seahawks, when they handed the ball off 24 times for 56 yards. The combo of Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, and Josh Williams ultimately got the job done, but the Bucs desperately need to get healthy.
The effects of the absence of Luke Goedeke had honestly been sort-of mitigated, and the line as a whole looked fairly decent against Seattle and San Francisco, but it’s been a rough two games now, with the Bucs on their fifth RG in Dan Feeney, who actually looked alright, but C Graham Barton has struggled after starting the year out of position, as has LG Ben Bredeson, and even Tristan Wirfs had a pretty bad game (by his standards) against New Orleans. With Goedeke and Irving hopefully back this week against the Patriots, the run game ought to improve, a desperate need for an offense struggling to get any separation in the pass game.
Speaking of the pass game… Baker looks off. Whether it’s injuries or a lack of trusted targets, or a lack of time in the pocket, or some combination of the three, He’s playing some of his most disappointing football in a Bucs uniform, and this is just a few weeks removed from some of his best work as a Buc. Obviously, they didn’t need him to be great this past week, and maybe that’s the reason for the lackluster stats, but with (hopefully) some players returning from injury, he’ll need to get his feet back under him after a week off and headed for the hardest three game stretch of the season.
The playcalling has not helped. While I’ve seen some questions asked about the Bucs play action rate this season, it’s only a tick lower, down to ~21.6% from ~22.8% last season. I’ve really enjoyed seeing the passing concepts and route combos Grizzard has drawn up so far, but he’s had a tall task with so many starters out, whom the offense is literally built around, and I’m sure he hasn’t been able to do nearly what he’s wanted to. That being said, the goal line play calling in this game was atrocious. I get that not having Mike Evans hurts in the low red zone area, but there are far better ways to score than mashing bodies together at the goal line, especially when your offensive line isn’t moving any bodies.
On their first red zone series, they ran a total of five plays from the one yard line, with the first being waived for an offsides penalty, but then it was four more handoffs, all either up the middle or behind the left guard. They were all run out of the same 12 personnel with pre-snap motion from a tight end as the lead blocker, and this is a place they miss Ko Kieft as well. A four down stop is the kind of momentum you DON’T want to hand an underdog at home early in a game. Run the ball outside, run a roll out play, hit a tight end on a fade route… something else. It certainly makes you wonder about how bad Mayfield’s slew of injuries really are.
On the second red zone drive, they threw a goal line fade for Sterling Shepard (5’10”), another handoff up the middle, a goal line fade for Emeka Egbuka that looked like it was not the intended play when the huddle broke, and then another handoff that finally punched it in for the only offensive touchdown of the day.
Obviously the Bucs WR Corps are depleted. Who could have planned to be missing their top two receivers for a second year in a row? Well actually the Bucs did spend a first round pick on a WR, but he’s playing injured and double teamed. So we’re down to Sterling Shepard who was nearly out of the league, bouncing between practice squads to start 2024, and Tez Johnson, who has far outplayed his seventh round draft slot. The Bucs could desperately use Chris Godwin Jr., who is hopefully fully healed and doesn’t suffer more setbacks on his leg or ankle, or Jalen McMillan recovering from his broken neck. The offense would excel with an Egbuka/Godwin/McMillan trio with Johnson and Shepard splitting WR4 duties.
We’ll know more soon this week about the injuries but the Bucs will desperately need players back. Their next three games are shaping up to be not only the hardest stretch, but also the most important.
The Patriots have won six games in a row, including a game against the Atlanta Falcons in much the same manner the Bucs did: the Falcons missing another kick to tie the game late. While it’s an impressive start to the year, the opponents they’ve beat have been lackluster to say the least. They’ve only faced three opponents with winning records, against whom they’re 2-1, but their opponents combined record is just 27-49, while the Bucs combined opponent record is 31-35. Obviously, not exactly a measure of how good a team is, but still indicative of the easy schedule for the Patriots.
The Patriots are bottom ten in passing yards allowed per game, in the bottom half in passing touchdowns allowed per game, but they’ve got just as many interceptions as the Bucs this season (although an extra game due to the Bucs bye week). Their rush defense is the best in the league in terms of yards per game and second best in touchdowns on the ground as well, and they’ve been one of the best scoring defenses in the league so far. Very similar to the Bucs, but with worse competition.
Offensively, Drake Maye is as hot as they come right now. He’s fourth in pass yards and tied for third in touchdowns, while leading the league in completion percentage. He’s got a PFF grade of 99.9 on throws over 20 yards, completing 20 of 28 for 628 yards and 6 touchdowns on the year. He’s looked fairly average against pressure, but he beats blitz’s very, very well for a second year player. They’ll likely be down Kayshon Boutte, their leading receiver, and they were also missing lead back Rhamondre Stevenson this past week.
The Bucs will need this win badly coming out of the bye week to build momentum before they see the 6-2 Bills and 6-2 Rams, and they’ll ideally get two wins in these three games to help boost their playoff chances.
Realistically, after that, the schedule SHOULD be easy. While there are still four division matchups to go, (Home against Falcons and Saints, Panthers twice), and while the Panthers have beaten some bad defenses (Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets), they now have a pretty gutsy win over the Packers at Lambeau.
The Falcons and Panthers have both been weird teams this year. They both seem to alternate between great wins and terrible losses, with the Panthers pummeling the Falcons 30-0, the Falcons beating the Bills 24-14, and the Bills beating the Panthers 40-9. So yes, division games are never easy, and both of these teams are very strange (How do you lose to the Cardinals but beat the Packers? Or get beat badly by a BAD Dolphins team and then hang with the Patriots?), and these are games the Bucs ought to win.
Their last two non-division games will be the 2-5 Cardinals who lost five straight heading into the bye week, and the Miami Dolphins who might not have Mike McDaniels or Tua Tagovailoa. The Bucs have no business losing these games either.
The Bucs are now essentially at the mid point of their season, so it’s time to hand out some midseason grades
Offense: B
My preseason predictions (9/5/25): “In his third season, I think Mayfield regresses in yards and touchdowns and fewer interceptions, as he (hopefully) takes fewer risks, but the development of RB Bucky Irving and WR Emeka Egbuka, as well as the health of WR Mike Evans and WR Chris Godwin all lead to a powerful spread offense that relies heavier on the run. Game flow will hopefully support this change to a run heavy offense, as the defense will hopefully be vastly improved, meaning less games where Baker had to force the ball downfield.Bucky Irving dominates the early down rushing role and maintains his efficiency in the screen game as a receiver, but Rachaad White sees a bulkier workload as a receiver, as he did in 2023, especially with Chris Godwin set to miss the beginning of the year and Jalen McMillan missing perhaps 8 weeks. Even TE Cade Otton’s health has been a concern at the end of camp, leaving White as essentially the third best receiving option on the roster to start the season. Sean Tucker will probably mix in for carries, given that he was the most efficient running back with 50 or more carries last season, and I would be curious to see if he becomes a goal line running back to prevent overworking the other two running backs. The Bucs have also opted to carry a fourth running back on the roster this season with UDFA Josh Williams from LSU. I expect Williams will be back to return kickoffs with WR Tez Johnson, but the addition of a fourth running back hints at a larger role for formerly undrafted Sean Tucker this season.
Mike Evans will presumably continue to be the 20 Million Dollar Man, and if he stays healthy he will likely improve from his career low 13.6 yards per route run last year. This is in part because he won’t need to dominate the target share, generally the Chris Godwin role when he’s healthy. With Emeka Egbuka on the field, expect a similar status quo. He’s blown minds in practice, and nobody has had a negative word to say about him. He dazzled in his limited reps, and if the rumors are correct, he very well could lead all rookies in receiving. They’ll need both WR’s to come out of the gate hot, and they’ll need to stay healthy. Keep an eye on Godwin when he does return though, as he was in the middle of the best start to season in his career. Can he replicate the magic?
If Otton stays healthy to start the year, he should get off to a hot start. He would figure to be third in the order of target share. If he isn’t healthy… it could get ugly for the Bucs. He could see even more usage if replacement left tackle struggles in relief of Tristan Wirfs, as the easy solution is to use Otton as an extra blocker. Either way, he could see a cooler finish to the year, especially with WRs getting healthy. Durham, Kieft, and Culp figure to remain footnotes so long as Otton stays on the field.
Football is won in the trenches. Barring an act of god, this line will finish as a top five unit in the league, and the rest of the offense ought to follow. Regardless of Tristan Wirfs’ absence early this year, Baker Mayfield will be sacked fewer times than last year, and the position group will pave the way for another phenomenal year for Bucky Irving.”
So far Mayfield has done exactly what I said. He’s dropped from 273 yards per game to 240, 2.6 touchdowns per game to 1.6, and, most importantly, 1.1 interceptions per game to 0.3. He’s still on pace for 4000 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, but now just 7 interceptions. Otherwise… They’ve been too injury prone to really get a sense of the identity of the offense, with just four games of Bucky Irving, who was about as good as expected through those games, and exactly 0 snaps with all three of their top receivers on the field, much less top four receivers. Cade Otton was stuck blocking for much of the early weeks, exactly as I said, but he’s heated up with a healthier offensive line, and no Evans/Godwin Jr./McMillan. And believe it or not, Mayfield is on track for fewer sacks this season and similar rushing numbers to his career best year in 2024. They’ve gotten the job done outside of two stinker weeks in a row. Their luck was bound to run out, but they were lucky enough to win games with this offense, something you wouldn’t have gotten last year because the defense has been so much better this year, when it lost them games early last year.
Defense: A
I had the Bucs improving this year, but not by this much. Who could’ve seen an all-pro season in the cards for Jamel Dean, who’s already having a career best year in interceptions (3), fumbles forced (2), and sacks (1.0), and passer rating allowed (30.1), with his passer rating being the lowest in the league among players with 200+ coverage snaps. As a team, their 7 interceptions are already as many as they had all year in 2024, and their 25.0 sacks, and 50 tackles for loss are set to break last season’s totals (46.0 sacks, 81 tackles for loss) by quite a bit. While they had a really bad game in Seattle, and they have an obvious hole in the middle of the field, they’ve been significantly better than they were last year, and it’s kept them in games they’ve had no business being in. Yaya Diaby is also on pace for his best year in 2025, Zyon McCollum has been quite elite. They boast perhaps the best box-safety duo in the league, and both rookie corners have absolutely shown up in big ways. Even Elijah Roberts, the fifth round defensive lineman, has flashed his potential in the place of Calijah Kancey, boasting one of the highest pressure rates among rookie defensive linemen.
Special Teams: D-
While Chase McLaughlin struggled early, he’s now a league best 8/8 from 50+ and set the record for the longest outdoor field goal in NFL history. He’s already missed more field goals this season than last, but it hasn’t kept them from winning games. Their punt unit has been one of the worst, in terms of yards per punt, blocked punts, and net punt yards. They’ve been middle of the pack downing it inside the 20 v.s. Allowing touchbacks, and this HAS cost them a game, specifically week four against Philly. They’ve struggled on kickoffs as well, the eleventh worst in yards allowed on returns. Just bad all around really, and it will continue to set them up poorly on both sides of the ball.
The Bucs are primed for a deep run in the post season, but don’t expect a move at the deadline. With just one deadline deal in eleven years, Licht is never eager to give up his picks, and they seem confident in the roster they have. Nevertheless, the Bucs are contenders, and they ought to make some serious noise in the postseason as all the pieces come together.
