RBLR Rays Roundtable #37 – Baz’s Spot, World Series Odds, & Bullpen Review

This week, our writers considered moving Baz to fill a need in the outfield, looked ahead to next season’s World Series odds, and reviewed the performance of the bullpen last season.

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Should Baz return to the rotation in ’26?

As we approach an offseason where the Rays expect to return back to postseason contention, they have many decisions to make to attempt to improve the roster: One of those being former top prospect Shane Baz.

The Rays watch Baz’s arbitration figure steadily rise to a projected $3.1M rate up from his $1.45M the year prior. Shane’s production has been a tad underwhelming accumulating just 3.4 fWAR in his first 286 innings of work through out his big league career, but the underlying data suggests better?

Baz landed in the 85th percentile in zone miss rate prior to the addition of his cutter, Shane also landed in the 62nd percentile in chase rate induced. The blemishes that came with Baz this past season was the barrel rate allowed. It landed in the 28th percentile, and that resulted in Baz surrendering the 3rd highest HR/FB% amongst qualified pitchers.

Obviously a lot of this had to do with the inconsistent home atmosphere of George M Steinbrenner Field (7th in HR park factor). Baz will welcome the return to Tropicana Field (18th in HR Park Factor) which should help him positively regress naturally in that regard. So is Baz worth bringing back with the uncertainty that surrounds the current rotation? Or is it more beneficial to possibly dangle him during winter meetings and see if they can make some much needed outfield upgrades?

Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Glaring roster issues and low World Series odds

As we officially close the book on the 2025 season with the Dodgers winning it all over the Blue Jays, the focus for not just the Rays, but all of baseball shifts to 2026. With a new year comes new hopes and expectations, right? Well, maybe not for the Rays, according to Vegas.

Currently, per FanDuel, the Rays have +2200 odds to win the American League, trailing teams like Baltimore, Kansas City, and Texas. Further, their +5000 odds to win the World Series, trailing the teams listed previously as well as teams like Cincinnati and San Francisco, ranks 20th in baseball. Can I necessarily blame the sportsbooks for not being too bullish on the Rays’ 2026 team? No. In fact, I think these odds are indicative of the glaring issues this roster currently has, like with a lack of rotation stability, lineup depth, and outfield talent.

There is a foundation for a good baseball team in the Rays organization currently; Junior Caminero is a legitimate superstar, Jonathan Aranda is a plus hitter who completely broke out into being one of the best 1B in baseball, Yandy Diaz is the best all around hitter in franchise history, and there’s still plenty of youth in the position player pool that can make an impact (looking at you, Carson Williams). If everything clicks, the Rays can surprise a lot of people in 2026. But it feels like we’ve been saying this for a couple years now, and two well-below .500 seasons later, actions might mean more than words. Regardless of the seemingly negative outlook I have with the current Rays roster, I do have nothing but faith in the front office and major league scouting department to find the right moves to make, and hopefully make someone a lot of money buying low on the Rays in 2026.

Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Bullpen stability

The bullpen is more set than we usually see going forward.

Pete Fairbanks, much to the derision of some Rays fans, was actually nails for the Rays in high-leverage situations in 2025. 2023 is widely considered Pete’s best full season; however, statistically, 2023 was great for Pete, but he did not significantly impact whether the Rays won or lost. In 2023, Fairbanks produced a win probability added value of 0.31; this year, his WPA was at 0.870. If you dive further, Pete actually made the most shutdowns of his career (appearances where a pitcher produces 0.06 WPA or more added in a game) with 28, which was six more than 2023, that did come with a career high in meltdowns with 10 (where WPA in a match was -0.06 or worse).

Fairbanks’ clutch statistic sat at 0.12, which ranked 57th out of 147 qualified relievers. Clutch is simply WPA in leverage-specific situations and reads as such: Clutch = (WPA/pLI) – (WPA/LI). pLI is a leverage index stat specific to high leverage. 57th doesn’t sound that great, but it is actually quite normal for many closers. Jhoan Duran sat 125th with a -0.052, Robert Suarez sat a -0.09, and Aroldis Chapman, who was nearly unhittable this season, sat a -0.15. Among players with 20 Saves this season, Pete’s 0.12 clutch value actually sat 8th best out of 19 closers. Pete also had the 14th-highest average leverage index when entering a game amongst 147 relievers.

Closer role is defined from there with the Rays; the rest of the bullpen roles are more fluid and situational. The three bullpen arms that bridge to Pete seem just as defined as well, those being Griffin Jax, Edwin Uceta, and Garret Cleavinger.

Edwin Uceta led the Rays in shutdowns this season with 29, and among relivers with at least 30 innings was 2nd in clutch, 0.14 behind the lost Manuel Rodriguez. However, Uceta’s early-season woes also gave way to a team-high 16 meltdowns. Garret Cleavinger was very good from a stat point of view and provided 0.48 WPA and was extremely good in medium leverage situations; high leverage situations were not as kind, and Clev was often put into them, having the 65th highest average entry leverage situation among qualified relivers, which led to a -0.42 clutch rating. Still, Clev looks primed to shut down an opposing lineup, even if there is a solid chance of a meltdown occurring.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!