RBLR Rays Roundtable #38 – A New Sheriff In Town

With the departure of closer Pete Fairbanks, the Rays will be tasked with finding new solutions to succeeding in high-leverage moments. We asked our writers, “Who do you think will be the most valuable reliever in 2026, and why?”

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Mason Montgomery

Mason Montgomery will be the most valuable reliever in 2026. Montgomery had a tremendous audition in 2024 finishing first amongst pitchers with at least nine innings pitched in Zone Miss%, and flashing double plus stuff.

Most people were assuming after that brief run Monty would end up breaking out in 2025, but he struggled with pitch location and that resulted in him landing in the 32nd percentile in barrel%.

Underlying data suggests Monty should be better, as he landed in the 55th percentile in zone% (despite falling in the 3rd percentile in BB%), and still missed bats at a high rate (98th percentile in Zone Miss%). All in all if Mason is able to find consistency next season there isn’t much of a reason his raw talent cannot propel him to ultimately finish as the Rays most valuable reliever next season.

Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Bryan Baker

An acquisition that was questioned at the time it was made, and then even farther questioned after an initial struggle with the Rays, could end up being the Rays most impactful reliever in 2025.

Bryan Baker was traded to Tampa Bay on July 10 and between then and the end of the month, he gave up 8 ER, walked 4, and gave up 2 HR in only 6.2 innings, good for a 10.80 ERA and a 6.44 FIP. However, once he settled in in August, he became what the Rays wanted him to be when they acquired him in July.

From August 1 onwards, Baker pitched at a very high level, giving up 8 ER, but this time in 23.2 innings. He only walked 4 batters in this timeframe as well, and limited the home run ball at a higher level than he did in his first month with the Rays. Baker’s big issue in 2025 was getting hit hard when he allowed contact, as his 12.6 barrel rate against is astronomically high compared to others in the league, and is not a number you’d like from a guy pitching out of the back end of the bullpen, but a move back to the Trop from Steinbrenner, a place balls flew out of due to wind conditions plus the already small dimensions, should limit home runs in the first place.

Further, Edwin Uceta had the same problem earlier in 2025, one that made him completely ineffective at times, but eventually figured it out and sort of returned to his 2024 form. Baker is essentially Uceta-lite, and if he can continue his reliable end to the season and give up less hard contact, could be a reliable workhorse out of the bullpen for Tampa Bay next season

Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Griffin Jax

With the Rays lacking a true shutdown relief arm to get into the 9th for the bulk of the season, the bullpen struggled. The Rays surely hope Griffin Jax can be that.

Pitching+ is an all-encompassing stat that weighs location+, stuff+, and situational context via counts and batter handedness. Griffin Jax produced the 3rd highest Pitching+ value among pitchers with 60 innings last year at 127. Overall, from a standpoint of what Jax could control, he was 27% better than league average. Griffin Jax’s stats from 2025 are boggling.

Before his move to the Rays, Jax was producing a 2.05 FIP and a xERA of 3.16, but a 4.50 ERA, all of which was heavily tied to his poor BABIP luck. A player who has a career average BABIP of .286 was so unlucky that his BABIP on July 30th sat at .389. A pitcher with a 29.0% K-BB% actually had a 4.50 ERA.

Griffin Jax is a dominant reliever, in a high-leverage situations last year Jax actually produced significantly lower line-drive rates(22.7% vs 28.6% and 28.8% in medium and low leverage situations respectively), hard-hit% (22.5% vs 28.6% and 38.5%), but was undone by a .386 BABIP in those situations tied heavily to his infield hit percentage almost doubling from 12.5% in medium leverage to 23.8% in high leverage. Jax’s 3.08 xFIP in high-leverage situations is more representative of his actual talent level in those situations than his 4.10, and he should be the actual shutdown piece of the bullpen in 2026.

Pat Davenport (@depressedrays) : Joe Boyle

It’s such a shame that Manuel Rodriguez will be out this year, otherwise he would’ve have been an easy lock after looking tremendous in 2025. What the Rays do have, however, is a collection of high-upside arms that clearly have potential and could break out at a moment’s notice. Perhaps one of the biggest “stuff demons” that may be overlooked when evaluating next years ‘pen, and my pick to be the most effective receiver in 2026, is Joe Boyle.

Boyle, acquired from the Athletics last offseason in the Jeffrey Springs trade, was always an intriguing arm. He has fiery velocity but erratic control; always begging the question: what if he could just throw strikes? Well, the Rays have been working on that.

While nowhere near perfect, the signs of development are clear for Boyle. He has raised the amount of pitches in the zone by 6.3%, as well as lowering his BB% by 5%. This, in turn has cut his ERA and FIP significantly compared to his 2024 numbers, and I believe he will continue to improve at this with another Spring Training with Kyle Snyder, meaning that he can continue to challenge and defeat hitters with his astronomical pitch offerings.

The 26 year-old righty is on the outside looking in when it comes to the rotation, and so I see Boyle being used as a devastating multi-inning reliever in 2026, with occasional opens and spot starts worked in when needed. With continued improvements in command, plus what I predict to be the highest workload amongst 2026 relievers, I forecast a big year ahead for Joe Boyle and for him to have the highest WAR total from then bullpen next season.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!