Manuel Mar-Go-Ahead: The Numbers Behind Margot’s Clutch Hitting
Manuel Margot has shown he’s worth every penny of the $19 million contract extension he signed in early April. Fresh off his game-winning 3 run HR on May 6th, and a Grand Slam the following night against the Seattle Mariners, Margot is having an incredible season.
A few stats he currently has career bests in are:
- Strikeout rate (14.3%; ranking in the 84th percentile this season among players with at least 70 PA)
- OPS (.785; 70th percentile percentile)
- wOBA (.352; 72nd percentile)
- xwOBA (.362; 69th percentile)
- Line drive rate (30.2%; 95th percentile)
He’s even on pace for a career-best 3.7 fWAR/500 PA. It’s safe to say that Margot is locked in at the plate. His defensive numbers are down a bit so far, but it’s still early and he’ll improve as the season goes on given his impressive defensive track record.
But that’s not what I’m here to talk about; the most noteworthy part of Margot’s season so far is his timely hitting. First, we’ll look at his numbers in different situations, and then we’ll see how “clutch” he really is and how that stacks-up to the rest of the league.
High Leverage
Heading into the 2022 season, Margot was never a productive bat in high leverage situations. However, something clicked for him this season in a relatively small sample size; check out these numbers in high leverage:
| High leverage stats 2016-2021 (percentile rankings min. 200 PA) | High leverage stats 2022 (percentile rankings min. 10 PA) | |
| BB% | 8.8% (32nd percentile) | 14.3% (75th percentile) |
| K% | 16.2% (77th percentile) | 7.1% (84th percentile) |
| OPS | .686 (18th percentile) | 1.167 OPS (8th percentile) |
| wRC+ | 85 (23rd percentile) | 252 (89th percentile) |
| GB% | 46.3% (26th percentile) | 18.2% (89th percentile) |
| LD% | 18.3% (28th percentile) | 36.4% (78th percentile) |
| FB% | 35.4% (37th percentile) | 45.5% (76th percentile) |
Margot has clearly improved, and is currently among the league’s best hitters in high leverage situations. As a Rays fan, I hope he continues that success, but being good in high leverage situations one day doesn’t necessarily always carry over to the next high leverage situation.
It’s also a small sample size and very early in the season. Is this kind of production sustainable for Margot? Looking at his track record in these situations, my first instinct would be to say no. However, since arriving in Tampa St. Pete, Margot has taken on a leadership role in this relatively young team. He’s also happy here, understands his role, and is valued by the organization.
Speculative explanation for Margot’s success with the Rays:
In terms of very very basic psychology, it’s probably safe to say that most baseball players have their most basic needs met given the resources they have acquired as a result of hardworking and perseverance. But the Rays have helped meet Margot’s needs in terms of belonging (his role on the team as a leader and team dad to other players), and even his esteem needs (he’s recognized by those in and around the team as someone of value and importance; they even gave him a rare mutual option for a 3rd year on his recent contract extension as opposed to a player or team option).
Are the most clutch hitters the one’s who are closest to self-actualization? Who knows, but it would make sense; players that feel comfortable and in control of their careers and the different situations they’re in may end up manifesting their own success even in the most volatile scenarios during games. If they believe they’re good at hitting because their organization believes they’re good, then they might just be good at it. This is purely speculation of course, but it does make some sense and could be an explanation for Margot’s improvement since joining the Rays.
There really isn’t one factor that makes someone “clutch,” but part of it could come down to their mentality in the sense that they’re able to stay comfortable even under duress, remain present in the moment, and have the confidence to execute a plan that plays to their strengths – all of which we’ve seen from Margot during this recent run of play.
Clutch
From 2016 through 2020, Margot did not post a positive WPA (win probability added). This stat measures the extent to which a player impacts a game, and it’s cumulative (see Fangraphs for a more thorough explanation). It’s somewhat tied to WAR in the sense that the best players with higher WAR totals typically have higher WPA totals as well. Margot wasn’t exactly winning games for his team too often early in his career, so his WPA was low; from 2016 though 2020, it was -2.88 – ranking in the 12th percentile among all players with at least 1000 PA over that time frame.
However (as you’ve probably caught-on by now), Margot turned a corner recently. After logging a 0.31 WPA in 2021 (37th percentile min. 450 PA), Margot has exploded this year. He currently has a 1.45 WPA this season, ranking him 4th among all qualified hitters (98th percentile). He is making a positive impact on his team’s results on a fairly consistent basis, and isn’t really doing anything to put the team in a tough spot. Does this mean he’s valuable? Absolutely. Does this mean he’s clutch? Maybe, depending on how you define “clutch.”
When most people think of the word “clutch,” they think about players who perform best when it matters the most. Like how Margot raises his game in high leverage and has been one of the most productive hitters in the league in those situations (even though it is a small sample size so far).
Another way of looking at it is through a Fangraphs metric called “Clutch.” Check out their website for a more detailed explanation, but I’ll do my best to provide a sparknotes version:
Clutch measures a player’s performance in high leverage situations compared to how they normally do in more neutral situations. A player is compared to themselves, so if a player is good all the time and they’re good in high leverage, they aren’t considered “clutch” by this stat as much as a player who is usually not so good, but raises his game in high leverage. In this metric, zero is average, 0.5 is good, 1.0 is great, and 2.0 is awesome. It goes negative too, so -0.5 is bad, -1.0 is really bad, and -2.0 is terrible.
From 2016 through 2021, Margot posted a -1.15 clutch rating – placing him in the 34th percentile among all players with at least 1000 PA during that time frame. He was not clutch; in fact, he was bad at raising his game in high leverage. However (as it goes in this piece), Margot has been one of the more clutch hitters this season, putting up a 0.52 clutch rating (87th percentile among qualified hitters). 0.52 might not seem like much, but that’s partially because Margot has actually been pretty great in neutral situations this season as well, so kicking it into a higher gear in high leverage looks different for him than it does for other players. I think the percentile rankings in combination with the clutch stat help paint a more complete picture by providing context. So we can see that Margot is one of the more “clutch” hitters in the league.
Again, I’d like to emphasize once more that timely/clutch hitting is not predictive, so players with good stats in high leverage or high clutch ratings aren’t necessarily going to do that consistently. These stats tell a story rather than tell the future.
This final note about this clutch stat is a tangent, but did you know that Kevin Kiermaier has a 1.08 clutch rating (99th percentile, literally second only to Trea Turner) this 2022 season? And among players with at least 3000 PA since 2014, KK ranks in the 78th percentile with his 1.53 clutch rating. That’s all; I just wanted to throw that in there.
Conclusion
Manuel Margot has been great since joining the Rays, and he has been even better this season as he has emerged as quite the clutch hitter so far. I’d like to think he’ll continue to do that for the rest of this season, and hopefully for years to come. Even if he does regress, he’s a valuable player to this team and I’m happy to have him.
