Home vs. New Mexico United Preview
Date: Saturday April 27, 2024
Kickoff Time: 7:30 pm EST at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg, FL
Records: Tampa Bay Rowdies (10 pts 2W-4D-0L); New Mexico United (13 pts 4W-1D-1L)
Standings: The Rowdies are 5th in the East and New Mexico are 3rd in the West
Another weekend has come and gone and another draw is in the books for the Rowdies. In a season that’s already had more than its fair share of those, fans should at least take solace in a lack of losses – and an abundance of chances vs. El Paso. Up next is New Mexico; get to the game and cheer on the boys to make the best atmosphere possible on the national broadcast!
So where were the goals this week?
El Paso Locomotive are a team in trouble right now. With one of the worst records in the USL Championship, their manager is surely sitting on the hot seat. Offseason player recruitment, despite some big names, has seemingly not worked out. Tampa Bay fans could be forgiven for thinking three points at home vs. these visitors was guaranteed.
Yet, as the saying goes, “that’s football.” It’s not just a truism. It’s also what this writer heard from everyone who came to the post-game press conference. Manager Robbie Neilson and players Manuel Arteaga and Danny Crisostomo all let their little bit of disappointment go with the passing of these words. “Despite it all… that’s football.”
The Rowdies dominated almost the entire game against El Paso. They lined up and moved forward in a manner similar to the game the week before. One could say it was a tried and true method after the beating it caused on lowly The Miami FC. Truly, one should still believe that after the match vs. Locomotive. But, stats and chances are never a guarantee.
After creating multiple good chances through both fantastic build up play out wide and off of set pieces in the first half, it stayed 0-0. The second half started much the same way. Josh Perez and Blake Bodily, two players responsible for much creation down the left hand side, were subbed for Damian Rivera and true winger Pacifique Niyongabire – a slight change in formation.
Then, something unthinkable happened. El Paso were awarded a free kick deep within their own half for a clumsy challenge. Big deal, right? If a full field is usually 120 yards, they had closer to 80 between them and the Rowdies’ goal. We’ll have it back in no time and… wait. What is this? What just happened? Do my lying eyes deceive me?
The clunky paragraph above is written in a direct second-by-second transcription of my thoughts as Locomotive player Francisco Nevarez passed that free kick short, received it right back, and smashed it those 80 or so yards over the head of Jordan Farr. It was 1-0. It was stunning. It was a goal scored by a team who had barely created anything all game.
Suddenly, the game changed. Soccer is a low-scoring sport, so the margin created by a single goal often means one must change what they’re doing and focus on getting that back. With 25 minutes left, Tampa Bay definitely had time to make up the difference and then some. All that stood between them was the outstanding goalkeeping of Jahmali Waite.
Credit to the Rowdies for sticking mostly to their game plan. Credit to them as well for only giving up a few more counter-attacking chances while they chased the score. Unfortunately, the goal Arteaga scored would be the only one, leaving it 1-1 after 90 minutes. Their 21 shots and four big chances created do indeed tell the story of the game. But, they don’t tell the whole story, because any story that leaves off a goal like that which Nevarez scored is just not complete.
Can New Mexico upset the apple cart?
Coming into this weekend, Tampa Bay fans can be looking for two things in particular. One of those things in injury returnees. Charlie Dennis has just played his first two games of the season, Freddy Kleemann is supposed to be back to full training, and the coaching staff suggest other longer term injuries are also day-by-day in their fitness assessments now.
If the likes of Dennis, Kleemann, and Nick Moon and Leo Fernandes are nearly back, what does that mean for the starting lineup? Over the six games already played, the players available have made themselves into something verging on formidable. The results don’t necessarily back up this assertion; but, two games in a row of brilliant statistical output portend success.
The other thing to watch for is a focus on creating numerical advantages down the wings. Surely, the players who have done the job against The Miami and El Paso are in pole position to stay in the starting XI. If they all stay on the field for New Mexico United, those in attendance can expect to see similar patterns against the Western Conference opponents.
Jordan Doherty and Eddie Munjoma have worked well with Danny Crisostomo to drag players into their small corner of the field. When that job is done well, Cal Jennings will recognize he has space in behind the opposition defense on that side. A beautiful chance was created around the 20th minute vs. El Paso for Josh Perez. He only might’ve shot earlier to ensure success.
On the left, Aaron Guillen and Blake Bodily have proved deadly in combination with Perez doing the same thing. After that substitution in the 60th minute, Crisostomo was given more license to roam and it was his figure who popped up on the left side to swing in a cross that found Arteaga’s head. The formula is already laid out before this team.
The problem? As articulated by Robbie Neilson, games in the USL tend to get a little too open for comfort. With Guillen involved in the attack on the left and Doherty doing the same on the right, Forrest Lasso was left on an island at times to defend 1v1 or even 2v1. He has been lights out in 2024 and his superb positioning allowed Tampa Bay to withstand a couple breaks in momentum.
Against New Mexico, if those 1v1s or 2v1s develop, one should expect it to be harder for Lasso to dominate on his own. While he’s strong in these situations, United have the perfect attackers to go at a lone center back and beat them with pace. Rowdies fans should know, as one of those wingers is Dayonn Harris, formerly of the Green and Gold.
He has been a frequent starter on the opposite side of Mukwelle Akale. Akale honed his craft first in the Villarreal academy in Spain before bouncing around the lower divisions there. He is a skillful player with the ability to run with the ball at speed and beat a man. This is a potent combination for the biggest problem identified by the Rowdies’ own coach.
Striker Greg Hurst, meanwhile, has found himself the beneficiary of the work from his wingers. While they draw the attention of one or two defenders with the ball at their feet, he just needs to find a little bit of space and get on the end of a cross into the box. It will require extreme focus and precision in deciding when to attack and when to sit back to keep United from scoring.
Score Predictions from the RBLR Rowdies Podcast:
Carlos Rueda: 2-1 W
James Knowles: 1-2 L
Yurika Wheeler: 2-1 W
