Bucs Season Ends After 23-20 Wild Card Loss vs WSH

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went out with a whimper last Sunday in a home Wildcard game that ended on a last second doink-in field goal.

Between long defensive drives and an inability to get 3rd or 4th down stops, questionable clock management, quick three-and-outs, an inconvenient turnover, and a lack of time of possession, there’s quite a few directions to place blame, and there certainly will be finger-pointing on social media, but I’m here to set the record straight.

To put it plainly, the offense was boring. Baker Mayfield was very efficient in his 23 dropbacks, managing 15/18 for 185 yards and two touchdowns. Efficient, but not exciting or even really noteworthy. His 18 pass attempts were his lowest of the year, and his 23 dropbacks were also the least on the season. He had no room to take risks or make mistakes. This is not because he wasn’t trusted by the team, it’s because they barely had the ball. Their 48 offensive snaps were tied for their lowest of the season. 

They didn’t manage to establish the run in any meaningful way in the first half, as they only had the ball for a little over 11 minutes. Of their four first half drives only 2 went over 2:15, and their longest was the opening drive just over four minutes. 

Bucky Irving and Rachaad White only combined for seven carries and 19 yards in the first half, with Irving accounting for six of the seven carries and 18 of the 19 yards. While they were more successful on the ground in the second half, Liam Coen still could not fully commit to the run, with just 10 second half carries for Bucky Irving while they tried to ice the game.

The run-block win rate was especially low, especially for gap runs, which had been a strength all season. None of the offensive linemen received a run blocking grade above 59.7 from PFF, which comes as a bit of a shock, given it was a strength headed into this game.

Only six players logged an offensive stat for the Bucs, as they struggled to move the ball and maintain possessions. This is a relatively recent trend for the Bucs, as when they struggle to move the ball, turn it over, or have limited chances, they revert to their stars and make the offense more predictable and easier to contain. Mike Evans had 47.9% of the teams receiving yards, and 32.3% of the teams yardage total. 

The Commanders had what felt like a dominating 35 minutes and 26 seconds of possession. They managed five drives over ten plays, including a momentum killing 17 play, nine minute drive split between the first and second quarter.

While the Bucs did not manage to force a punt, the Commanders turned the ball over on downs twice, including what could have been a game-defining goal line stand for the Bucs defense to start the fourth quarter, had the offense not fumbled at their own 15 yard line four plays later. 

The Bucs’ defense struggled to get off the field for much of this game. The Commanders converted seven of their fourteen third downs, and three of their five fourth downs, both of which were strengths for the Commanders all year (they have one of the highest 4th down conversion rates of all time this year).

However despite the loss, I would venture to say that not only was the defense good enough to win this game, they are the sole reason this game was competitive. 

Jayden Daniels scrambling was contained. He ran for just 36 yards on his 13 carries with a long of 8 yards. The rest of the team ran for just 45 yards on 20 attempts, but unfortunately Daniels is a very good quarterback. He threw for an impressive 24/35 for 268 and 2 TDs while leading the Commanders to just the 20th rookie QB playoff win in NFL history. 

With 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the Commanders took over possession of the ball at their own 30 yard line following the Bucky Irving Touchdown. A Jamel Dean holding penalty made it first down, Daniels would account for 47 out of 50 yards gained by the offense (not counting penalty yardage) and take the team right down the field before getting stopped at the three yard line.

This goal line stand very well could’ve defined the game. It was the first stop they had gotten all game since the opening drive, and they forced three straight incompletions in a row after Daniels had started the drive red hot. 

And then, with a huge chance & the ball back in their hands: Liam Coen got cute. 

Bucky picked up just 3 yards on two carries to bring up a quick third down. Mike Evans would pick up eight yards on third and seven on a quick out route that required him to contort his body to put the ball over the line (a potentially iconic image), the Bucs had enough room to operate and with 12 minutes left in the game, a long drive to extend the lead could all but end it.

Bucky Irving only has 13 carries on the day, and now would be a great time to get him going. But no.

Mayfield brings Jalen McMillan in motion across the backfield, and the timing is off just enough. The ball hits McMillan in the side instead of the chest, and Bobby Wagner falls on it at the Bucs 13 yard line. The atmosphere escaped Raymond James Stadium in an instant. The Commanders fans were plenty, and this was the moment you could feel it. Every ounce of momentum gained by getting the four-down goal line stand evaporated.

Except there was another chance. The Bucs managed to force another fourth down this time at the Bucs 5 yard line. Yet… 

The Commanders run a relatively simple variation of a Snag concept with Terry McLaurin running a dig on the opposite side. With no Jamel Dean on the field and Zyon McCollum struggling, the Bucs were left with Josh Hayes covering the wideout. Even from the broadcast angle, you can see where the coverage breaks down. Winfield is caught flat footed in the middle of nowhere, somehow covering the same running back as Lavonte David. Hayes, who was supposed to have help inside, is left one on one, and gets beat pretty easily, and the Commanders take a 20-17 lead.

Still the game was not over. The Bucs still had a pretty good shot at winning, they just had to take a lot of time and score a touchdown. Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton would pick up 26 and 20 yards and suddenly they were knocking on the door. Bucky Irving got the ball on first and ten and picked up 9, getting all the way to the 12 yard line before apparently giving himself up rather than pick up the first.

On second down, Coen would once again get cute and call a read-option, which Mayfield would take up the middle for no gain. And then on third down, rookie Center Graham Barton apparently forgets the snap count and goes on “one”. The play gets blown up. 

Todd Bowles, shining example of defensive minded conservative football coaches, decides to kick a 32 field goal on 4th and 3 to tie the game at 20.

At this point, the team was relying on the defense to get a stop or for Zane Gonzalez to miss. With 4:45 left on the clock, only two of the Commanders’ drives starting at or near their 30-yard line had been shorter than that time. While the two-minute warning and all three of Bowles’ timeouts were still available, his clock management was puzzling. Instead of using the timeouts strategically to preserve as much time as possible, Bowles waited until the two-minute warning to start using them and hesitated further, letting precious seconds tick away.

Once again though, the Bucs still have a chance. They managed to force a 3rd down with 39 seconds left as well as a timeout. Daniels fakes the handoff, rolls to his right, stiff arms Calijah Kancey and breaks the tackle for loss, and dives forward to pick up the first down, virtually guaranteeing a victory. 

The Buccaneers had multiple opportunities to seize control of this game but repeatedly got in their own way—a fitting end to a season defined by missed chances and self-inflicted wounds.

For now, it appears Todd Bowles will retain his position as head coach, and as of this writing, offensive coordinator Liam Coen has not yet departed for a head coaching role.

Despite the disappointment, the future looks promising for Tampa Bay. With one of the youngest rosters in the league and a strong foundation of talent, the team’s trajectory points upward.