RBLR Rays Roundtable 2025 #2 – Some Major and Minor Changes

Spring Training is finally here, and while the games don’t count just yet, the storylines certainly do. Could the Randy Arozarena trade go down as one of the Rays’ best moves in years? Which under-the-radar prospects are primed for a breakout? And is Shane Baz ready to claim the title of the next Rays ace? Our writers dive into these questions and more as we gear up for the 2025 season.

Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : The Randy Arozarena Trade is Shaping up to be the Best Rays Move Since the Chris Archer Trade

Randy Arozarena is a good but flawed player who is treated like a star. At 29 years old, his physical tools are already showing negative trends; average exit velocity dropped compared to 2023, sprint speed is declining year-over-year since 2019, and LF defense is now some of the worst in the league. The hope of him ever being a star 4+ WAR guy are dimming. The Rays made the correct move in trading Randy to an offense-hungry team, and the Mariners paid a steep price for a player that produced 122 wRC+ following the trade, but only to 0.9 fWAR in 54 games – equaling 2.7 fWAR/162.

For a player that has never put up a 4 WAR season, the Mariners parted with two prospects that are now on multiple top 100 lists. Aidan Smith looks like a potential 4+ WAR CF. As a 19-year-old in A ball, he posted 11 HR, 41 SB, and a 139 wRC+ with both the Rays and Mariners. He displays high-end exit velocities along with plus speed and arm strength that should let him stick in the center as he matures. He cut his K% down from 28.6 in his first season in professional ball to 23.2% last season. In particular, Smith cut his K% rate to 18.6 with the Rays. There is hit concern, but significant raw power and an ability to work the count were evident by a 14.4 BB% in 2024. He is ranked #87 on ESPN’s top 100.

Brody Hopkins is electric, especially for a guy who has only been pitching for 2 years following a move from the outfield. He possesses a plus fastball, a plus slider, and two pitches that are developing his changeup and cutter. His fastball sits 93-97 with a low-slot, slinging delivery that helps make his slider particularly difficult to hit, akin to Tanner Houck. Hopkins will at least be a nasty reliever with his fastball and slider, but could be a mid-rotation starter (or better) if he continues to refine his changeup and cutter. The Rays adjusted his approach, and he posted a 29.0 K% and a 3.17 FIP in 31 innings after the trade. He is currently sitting at #75 on Fangraphs’s top 100.

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport): A Prospect Who Could Pop in 2025

My breakout prospect to watch for this upcoming season has to be Homer Bush Jr. Bush is a former 4th-round pick by the Padres in 2023 out of Grand Canyon University, and he is off to a great start in his pro career – slashing .287/.380/.384 to go along with an 85% stolen base success rate across his first two seasons of CPX-A+. The Rays acquired Bush in a substantial midseason trade that sent Jason Adam to San Diego and Bush to Tampa Bay along with two other prospects.

A significant part of why Bush can break onto the scene this season is the offensive improvement he showed post-trade. Bush improved his power output by nearly double with the Rays, producing a .136 ISO versus just a .075 ISO with the Padres. How did Bush achieve this? With the Rays, he was able to increase his pull rate by 5.5%, and if you compare his pull rate to his 2023 season, you would be looking at a 12.5% improvement. That is quite significant given the ISO on pulled balls in the 2024 MLB season was .308. Homer can look to improve and raise his floor by continuing to work on his defense; FanGraphs gives him a 40 current grade, and he flashed some inconsistencies throughout the season. However, his high-end speed fortunately gives him a seemingly limitless ceiling. If Bush continues to make strides on the defensive side and continues to tap into the power he showed post-trade, this could very well be a top 100 prospect in baseball next season.

Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : An Underrated Prospect

He was one of the best contributors on a team with Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews. He was a top 100 pick in the 2023 MLB draft. He ran a 158 wRC+ across A+ and AA this past season in 437 plate appearances. However, he is rarely heralded as the best prospect in his organization at his position. Tre’ Morgan is starting to gain national attention as a prospect, landing at #86 on Fangraphs’ preseason list, as well as #94 on pipeline. However, given his performance in professional baseball, I believe he should rank even higher than that.

Morgan’s plate skills are almost unrivaled in the organization. This becomes glaringly obvious when comparing him to the Rays other higher-ranked 1B prospect, Xavier Isaac. Across 2024 in the minors, both with similar swing rates (Morgan’s was ~2% higher), but Morgan’s contact rate was 21.5% higher. Both Morgan’s swinging strike rate (9.1% vs 18.7%) and his CSW% (20.2% vs 32.5%) were lower than Isaac’s. However, they have different skillsets, as Morgan has always been a hit-over-power player, and Isaac has some of the best raw power in the minors. Yes, there is a difference in power numbers between the two in 2024, but it might not be as large as you think. Isaac hit 18 home runs in 2024 in 435 PAs, Morgan hit 10 in 437. Isaac ran a .215 ISO, and Morgan ran a .158. Combine this with Morgan’s athleticism and potential versatility, and Morgan should be penciled in as a massive riser in 2025, and potentially a big league contributor by year’s end.

Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Change is the Only Constant for the Rays and Their Fans

I’m only starting my fifth full season as a Rays fan, which seems strange to say. Since I’ve gotten to know and love them, the team, its players, and its overall dynamics have undergone significant transformation. Heck, they’ll be playing the entire season in a Minor League ballpark. That specific change is rather unprecedented, but I suppose I should be used to it now, as most Rays fans are — change is the only constant we know.

I first came across the Rays in Game 4 of the 2020 World Series. When you’re introduced to a team under those circumstances, your perspective is naturally clouded by rose-colored glasses. I only thought the world of them, and that surely, they are an incredibly popular team. I suppose I would have been more spoiled if they had won the World Series, and although they fell short, I felt certain they would be back in no time. Then came the 100-win team in 2021, whom I still hold close to my heart and genuinely believed had a shot at winning it all. That was the last time the Rays won the AL East, and it’s been odd to watch them go through a transitional phase that doesn’t include many of the faces from my formative days as a fan.

Last season, the Rays finished with an 80-82 record. Heading into the 2025 season, forecasts are not much better: FanGraphs projects them finishing with 81 wins. The low expectations are understandable with sky-high expectations often following flashier, big-market clubs like the Yankees. Still, I will be looking out for a few storylines, including the return of many of the starters (Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen). And though the underlying circumstances aren’t the best, I’m excited to be able to visit a new city and ballpark (I’ll be in Tampa in May).

Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10): Shane Baz: The Next Rays Ace

We have heard about Shane Baz since 2018; a former top 100 prospect who has undergone some unfortunate injuries during his time with the Rays. Baz has been highly touted for his fastball velocity, big-breaking curveball, and ability to strikeout anybody. Baz’s stuff looked sharp in 2024. His fastball recorded 2.7 inches more run and 1.7 inches more ride than the average four-seamer with comfortably plus velocity. His curveball had 3.0 more inches of drop than average to go along with above average velocity. I expect his shapes to look even better heading into 2025.

Baz started games from July to September and continued to improve each month. In four July starts, Baz threw 19.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 19 K.  His month of September looked much better with five starts, 30.1 IP, 2.37 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 28 K. The WHIP was elite, and it showcased his ability to navigate a lineup without an overreliance on trying to strike batters out.

The last point I want to focus on that the numbers don’t show is Shane’s maturity as a pitcher. He has this unshakeable quality that is very similar to Charlie Morton; the opposition may get to Baz, but he doesn’t let it carry over into the next inning. He will give his team a chance to win every day – even if he doesn’t have his A+ stuff that day. I’ve seen it first hand in AAA and at the major league level. Shane Baz will not be rattled. It’s amazing he pitches like this and only has 119.2 IP of Major League experience. I believe he has the mark of the next Rays ace.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!