RBLR Rays Roundtable #9 – Making Sense of Early Results
The results on the field have largely been a mixed bag this week, and some players are slowly but surely working their way back from injury. Is it too early to draw any conclusions from some of the early season stand-outs? How will the Rays navigate some tough roster decisions that are steadily approaching?
Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10) : Walls on His Way Out?
Jose Caballero has found a new role in 2025, the utility man. Playing anywhere in the infield and outfield. Not only is he an above-average infielder, but he has yet to show he is a liability in the OF, and with a larger sample size, I would assume he would be considered above average in terms of OAA. The Rays will soon have some tough decisions to make with the looming return of Ha-Seong Kim and Richie Palacios. Kim is likely the everyday SS taking Taylor Walls’s role, so his spot on this roster isn’t a question. Caballero’s newfound versatility should be his key to stick on the roster. This early season performance makes me question what is in store for Richie Palacios. Caballero has taken over Richie’s 2024 role of utility man. Will the Rays keep the roster versatility with both? Will one be dealt?
Caballero and Palacios are very similar players who bat from different sides. Defensively, Caballero has the edge with 7 OAA in 2024 compared to Richie’s 2 OAA. But Richie played two more positions, and they were his first time playing those positions at the major league level. Offensively, again, the two are very similar, but notably, Palacios isn’t as free of a swinger in 2024; he only swung at 22.3% of pitches outside of the zone compared to Caballero’s 34.5%. The average is around 30%, so this is a big swing in value between the two. I think the most likely scenario is the Rays carry both because of their versatility and move on from Taylor Walls. Caballero and Palacios provide more value as bench players than Walls and have more life in their bats. But as more players make their way off the IL, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Richie moved at some point this summer. The Rays will soon have to make many decisions about what players are part of the club’s future.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Aranda Establishing Himself
One of my favorite players to write about and follow since 2021 has been Jonathan Aranda. Following his career since his 2021 breakout season in the minors and seeing him ascend prospect lists and continue to perform is a real success story in the Rays organization, as a kid from Mexico has become a legit big leaguer who can impact a lineup. However, just calling Aranda a big leaguer might be selling him short; Aranda has been one of the best left handed hitters in baseball this season.
This is coming off the heels of one of the best days at the plate in Rays recent memory: a 3/3 performance that also featured 2 walks and included a home run to keep the Rays in the game. Saturday’s game brought Aranda’s season numbers to .378/.455/.703, with a 228 wRC+, as well as a 11.4% walk rate. He’s accumulated 0.4 fWAR in 44 plate appearances while playing first base or DH exclusively. These numbers won’t sustain, but Aranda playing to the level that we’ve seen in the minors and saw flashes of last year give the Rays another left handed bat that can impact the lineup this year and in the future.
This was always in Aranda’s game. Ever since the 2020 minor league season was canceled, Aranda has become a machine at all levels, barely looking overmatched. Last year, his pedestrian numbers seemed almost impossible with his under the hood metrics, as he had a ludicrous 16.5% barrel rate along with an xSLG of .518 and a hard hit rate at 48.5. These metrics have barely changed this year, and still are the underlying reason for Aranda’s breakout. Sometimes, it may feel like no matter how good a player’s process may be, they can never find results, as that’s the reality of baseball. However, Aranda is finally finding these results in the majors after a season of some of the best process in the league in 2024. Keep an eye out for more to come from Aranda in 2025.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Early Season Variance
My favorite component of baseball is that it is perfectly imperfect. Every result requires nuance to understand, as a star player only needs to succeed 3/10 times at the plate, and even if everything is correct, there are stretches where nothing can go right for them. No matter how well a pitcher is pitching, their elbow can decide to give up on the next pitch. No matter how great a batter squares a ball up, it can find a glove. Crash Daivs in Bull Durham summarizes this best, “Know the difference between hitting .250 and .300? It’s 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points. Okay? There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week – just one – a gorp… You get a groundball with eyes. You get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week… and you’re in Yankee Stadium.”
Results surrounded by so much randomness require nuance. Results in small sample sizes are difficult to evaluate, particularly without nuance. However, positives can be pulled via metrics and peripherals if viewed in a vacuum. Results can change daily, some Rays have already experienced this; Curtis Mead was 1 for 15 to start the year and has since gone 3 for 5. His batted ball data looked great on the surface, but he was having horrid luck with a .111 BABIP in the initial stretch. Now, post 3-for-5 stretches, and things look better. His expected weighted on-base average when he contacts the ball is .388 so far in the year, which, if it holds through the year, will be exceptional, especially if Mead’s contact rate remains around 87%. A small sample size is difficult to evaluate for obvious reasons in a sport where players commonly get 500 at-bats in a season. Sure, it’s great when a player is hot to start the year, but at the same time, regression can occur, and early success can inflate value. Every year, there is player like Yermin Mercedes who over-preforms their peripherals and incurs ungodly batted ball luck. During this time of year, it’s essential to look at peripherals and results in a vacuum to understand better the results of a given player’s actual production without bias or overvaluing traditional statistics during small sample sizes without looking at peripheral statistics and metrics. Because baseball is perfectly imperfect, the results, particularly with hitters, won’t normalize until later, deeper into the season.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Catching and Pitching Slump
The Rays have had a miserable week. As I write this, they’re on the heels of being swept by Texas and dropping a series at home to the Angels while maintaining a run differential of -16 within that stretch.
Let’s start with the Rays catching situation. Rays catchers to start the season are dead last in wOBA at a staggering low .131 and have collectively been the worst framing group in MLB, according to CSAA. Danny Jansen has gotten the bulk of the catching opportunities and has just been dreadful this season, ranking dead last in CSAA (63rd/63rd) while providing absolutely no offense to at least hide the fact that he is substantially hindering the team.
Rays pitching during this stretch has just been brutalized by home runs, allowing a 23.2% HR/FB%, as the Angels, in particular, really took advantage of the extreme winds and short porch this week.
So, what can the Rays do to improve? In my opinion, it’s time to look at some different catching options. Last season, Logan Driscoll finished 13th in CSAA and flashed the 15th strongest arm amongst catchers. As for the pitching, I am not overly concerned by the rough week, although the 10.9% K-BB% calls for some concerns. Injuries to key players have also hurt this team. I don’t think anyone expected Coco Montes, Jake Mangum, and Kam Misner to be called upon this early to contribute, but unfortunately, it’s a part of baseball, and hopefully, the Rays can persevere through this tough stretch and come out the other side better.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
