RBLR Rays Roundtable #13 – Ups and Downs
This week our writers looked at the inconsistent start to the year, a pair of promising pitching prospects, Josh Lowe working his way back and what that means for Misner, and the poor performance of the Rays current catching tandem.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Trending Down
“Tomorrow could be the start of a new streak, and we’ve got to look at it that way and try not to dwell on anything that’s happened this year so far.”
That’s what Shane Baz told MLB.com following the Rays’ frustrating home loss to the Phillies last Wednesday, a game in which they were shut out for the sixth time this season. His optimism didn’t quite hold up the next day, as the Rays dropped the final game of the series. Still, they bounced back in their most recent matchup, taking the series against the Brewers.
This pattern — losses followed by wins, or vice versa — has defined the Rays’ season so far. It’s no surprise their offense has recently been described as “confusing,” “inconsistent,” and even “unwatchable.”
Even with the series win over Milwaukee, it’s tough to say whether the Rays can sustain any real momentum. Winning at home is certainly no small feat, given their ongoing struggles at Steinbrenner Field. But it’s worth noting that their longest win streak remains just four games, achieved only once back in late April during their West Coast road trip.
In a 162-game season, it’s risky to read too much into any single game or even a series. What ultimately matters is where the team stands at the end. At the time of this writing, the Rays sit at 18-22, hovering just below .500 — a record that leaves plenty to be desired. That said, much of the AL East has been on a similar downswing over their last 10 games, and despite their inconsistencies, the Rays remain within reach of the rest of the division.
According to FanGraphs, the Rays are on pace for 79 wins — below preseason projections that placed them anywhere from 80 to 88 wins, and a step back from last year’s 80-82 finish. So far, the team appears to be living up to — or perhaps falling short of — those already tempered expectations. For fans, myself included, that’s a tough pill to swallow.
There’s still time to turn things around, especially with players like Shane McClanahan, Josh Lowe, and Jake Mangum expected to return from injury. But the more games the Rays play, the harder it becomes to ignore what we’re seeing on the field — and so far, it hasn’t been particularly encouraging.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Two Young Pitching Prospects
Going into the season, the Rays assigned a pair of 19-year-old pitchers to A ball. Trevor Harrison brings dynamic stuff – headlined by a 98mph fastball. Jose Urbina might arguably have even better stuff. Both, however, have struggled with control at times in their young careers.
Harrison is an imposing 6’4″, 225lbs presence who backs up his heater with a tight gyro slider. A 2023 draft pick out of high school, he was a late convert to pitching, only making the switch as a junior. Despite his rawness, he posted a 29.4% strikeout rate in A ball last year at just 18. In his return to Charleston, his walk rate has jumped to 13.5%, dropping his K-BB% by 6.6%. Still, his 25.2 K%, 4.15 ERA (with a better 3.21 FIP), zero homers allowed in 26 IP, and his 30.8% infield fly rate shows he is generating a lot of poor contact. His ERA- and xFIP- are both around league average (101 and 100), which is impressive for a 19-year-old facing mostly 21-year-olds.
While Harrison has had a decent start, Urbina has taken a huge step forward. Through 16 innings, he’s posted a 1.69 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and 3.28 xFIP. His peripheral and rate stats shine: 27.7% K rate, 4.6% walk rate, as well as 23.1 K-BB% to go with elite FIP- and xFIP- stats of 73 and 79. His 68.5% strand rate is mostly sustainable, and his .262 BABIP could be sustainable based on career norms. Urbina was a $210K signing who initially threw 88–90mph but shot up to 94–98 after signing and has developed a potentially plus gyro slider, a usable curve, and a developing changeup. The Rays have been aggressive with him, starting him in rookie ball at 17 and moving him to A ball at 18. His improved strike throwing is a major development, and his floor is already that of an MLB reliever. If the changeup comes along, he will possess an MLB starter’s arsenal and high-end stuff that could lead to a 3+ WAR ceiling.
With Harrison and Urbina, the Rays have two high-upside arms in A ball, both with the stuff to become top 100 prospects and possible future rotation pieces in Tampa.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : J Lowe On The Mend
After an injury-riddled 2024, The Rays had high hopes for Josh Lowe. Josh was entering his fourth full year in the majors, but on his second swing of the season, he managed to reaggravate the same oblique injury he suffered last season.
Josh had a standout spring, looking like his 2023 self as he went on to slash .429/.491/.633 good for a .491 wOBA. Adding Josh to this lineup significantly helps, as the Rays biggest glaring offensive weakness is their miserable 7% barrel%, good for 26th in MLB. How does Josh aid that exactly? Lowe, for his career, has run a 9.8% barrel%. On this current iteration of the Rays, that would be good for fourth on the team. Another glaring issue is the fact that throughout the last 21 ball games, Tampa Bay currently resides in last place in ISO (.094). Lowe will be an immediate help with that, as for his career, he has produced a .171 ISO, and jumps to a .186 vs RHP.
Josh will presumably cut into Kam Miner’s time at the plate, who has been quite dreadful as of late, since 4/18 (Last 58 PA’s). Misner is slashing: .145/.175/.200 – good for a 5 wRC+. Josh began his AAA rehab assignment on Thursday and went 0/2 with a pair of walks, and he cannot come back soon enough. With Misner’s struggles, and the team overall struggling to hit the ball for power, Lowe will be a massive addition to the middle of this Rays order.
Seth Hibel (@sethhibel10) : J Lowe To Replace Misner?
Kameron Misner started 2025 with a bang. He looked like a seasoned pro at the plate and has impressed defensively. He has officially returned from cloud 9, but the baseball season is about riding the peaks and valleys. His hot start made me question what future the Rays should run with Josh Lowe or Kameron Misner?
Both are 27-year-old outfielders with similar builds. Let’s look at their splits, as that’s typically how the Rays utilize their players. Josh Lowe, who has true exposure at the major league level, against RHP in 851 career AB’s is .274/.327/.460/.787 with 30 HR, 27.8 K%, and 7.2 BB%. Misner in his limited time in 88 career AB’s against RHP is .261/.302/.421/.723 with 2 HR, 33.3 K%, and 6.2 BB%. Misner is slowly returning to his norm. His career MiLB K% is 30.3% in 1833 career AB’s across 5 seasons. Performance vs RHPs is where it matters for these two, and Lowe will get a leg up on Misner in almost every category listed above. Lowe has more HR power, and Misner will live in the gaps, which are two big differences in style. Misner has historically struggled keeping his K% in check, and if 30% is his mean in the minors, it doesn’t bode well for the majors. LHP splits aren’t much to look at, but we will for the sake of the full picture, Lowe 152 AB’s .197/.255/.290/.545 2 HR, 33.9 K%, and 7.2 BB%. Misner 23 AB .174/.208/.348/.556 1 HR, 25.0 K%, and 0 BB%. Yes, these are extremely small sample sizes for Misner, but nothing is surprising from his time in the Minors.
Misner came up and lit the Majors on fire enough where people haven’t missed the presence of Josh Lowe much, which is fantastic, and I am glad Misner could make a positive impact. But Lowe will, of course, be the everyday player in the OF, offering a bigger power threat, and Misner has proven enough to capture a bench spot and be able to come in and play strong defense while still having upside at the plate.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Catching Woes
Last week, I made it a point of emphasis to praise the defensive efforts of the Rays this current season. 7 days later, this praise holds up, as the Rays still lead baseball in DRS and are tied for 6th in OAA. However, one major flaw sticks out in the Rays defense this season, that being the sheer number of stolen bases they have allowed thus far. The Rays have given up 47 stolen bases, good for the second most in baseball. The issues lie within the catchers on the roster, but thankfully there are internal options to help.
Ben Rortvedt has the tools to be a catcher who can throw out runners normally but has struggled this year to cut down stolen base attempts. Rortvedt has 75th percentile pop time, however, ranks around the middle of the league in caught stealing percentage, as well as carrying –1 caught stealing above average. There could be an area of concern when it comes to his arm strength, as generally in his career throw speed has bailed him out of below average transition times. The pop times remain consistent, but obviously something to monitor.
Danny Jansen ranks as having one of the worst pop times in baseball (7th percentile, along with 2nd percentile framing with –3 framing runs), however has a 20% caught stealing percentage along with a 0 CSAA. The results appear to be better than the process here, as he has been historically terrible at throwing runners out (-4 CSAA in 2024 and a 7% CS%), so I would actually expect his already mediocre stolen base defense to regress as the year progresses.
The possible solution? Logan Driscoll, who is rehabbing a spring training ankle injury currently in the minor leagues. In Driscoll’s 2024 stint with the Rays, he showed flashes of being a solid thrower behind the plate, amounting 2 CSAA and a 38% CS%. His 83.5mph arm strength is better than Jansen’s 77.1 MPH in 2025 and clears Rortvedt’s 81.0mph mark this season. Once Driscoll gets healthy, the Rays may need to look to him to solve their stolen base defensive woes and control the running game, adding onto their already strong defense.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
