RBLR Rays Roundtable #27 – Optics Down, Outlook Steady

This week, our writers checked-in on the prospects who have taken a step forward in their development. From Carson Williams to Trevor Harrison, there are plenty of future major leaguers despite the overall system being ranked lower than it was at this time last year. We also discussed what it could look like to give up on 2025 in preparation for 2026 and beyond.

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Carson Williams turning a corner

Other than prospect pedigree, you wouldn’t think Carson Williams is very worthy of a promotion to the major leagues, as he has just put up a 94 wRC+ and struck out at the 4th highest rate in the International League. The whiff is still there and will always be a concern. He’s running a below average 22% zone miss rate on the season, so I understand if the Rays remain cautious with him. However, there have been some strides in the right direction under the hood.

Since July 1st, Williams has made progress against sliders. While he’s still whiffing on them at a high rate (42%), he’s beginning to do damage – posting a .394 wOBA (~90th ML percentile) and a 41% hardhit rate (~75th ML percentile). Carson is also impacting fastballs at a high rate; he is running a 52.5% hardhit rate and a 12.5% barrel rate – both well above major league average.

Bat aside, Carson’s calling card will always be his plus glove, and he can certainly aid a Rays infield group that is pretty poor defensively with Taylor Walls on the IL. The Rays can be awarded a comp pick next season if he were to retain his PPI status for 2026. Regardless of the decision they make with him for this season, I am excited to track his development.

Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Future focus

It’s no secret that the Rays’ playoff odds continue to fade with the clock ticking away on their season. A good series win vs the Giants helps, but the big picture still doesn’t look great, as they still only carry a 4.9% chance to make the playoffs in 2025. With less than 40 games to play, the focus might have to shift for the future, and the Rays might have to continue leaning into something that could help them find future mainstays.

The Rays have a plethora of players who you need to see if they have anything in before the offseason, guys without options like Christopher Morel and Everson Pereira, as well as others who don’t have spots locked in for next year but have shown signs that they can play at a high level, guys who some have already been called up like Tristan Peters and Bob Seymour.

In my opinion, the Rays should even go as far as calling up Dominic Keegan and Carson Williams (as Jacob mentions in his piece), who will retain their rookie eligibility and need to be put on the 40 man roster in the winter anyways. With the Rays Rule 5 issues and crunch always in effect, the Rays should turn to giving new faces opportunities to see what they can produce in the future and if they’re worth keeping around for the long haul.

Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Minor developments

Prospect ratings are one of the most polarizing parts of the MLB fan experience. They generate both excitement and frustration, but at their core they’re just a snapshot, a balance of current performance and future potential, that can influenced by bias via original draft slot or signing bonus. For the Rays, some top names have taken steps back this year. That’s concerning, but it doesn’t mean the farm system is collapsing.

Take Carson Williams. His 34.3% strikeout rate stands out, but context matters. He’s a 22-year-old in Triple-A facing pitchers four years older on average, and he’s already improved from the 50% rate he posted in April’s brutal slump. Even with swing-and-miss issues, Williams put together a 20–20 season. His defense ensures he’ll be at least a 2–3 WAR major leaguer even if he only hits at a 75 wRC+ clip. If he reaches league-average offense (90–100 wRC+), he’s a 3-WAR player, and if the strikeouts dip below 30%, his ceiling is far higher, even MVP-vote territory.

On the pitching side, Brody Hopkins looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. He carved up Double-A with a 3.06 ERA, 3.44 FIP, and 28.2% strikeout rate. Yoniel Curet, slowed by injury, excelled upon returning to Double-A (2.23 ERA, 3.11 FIP). His first Triple-A starts were rocky, but he flashed upside with a 26.3% strikeout rate in his latest outing. Ty Johnson, one of the system’s biggest risers, has been dominant: a 2.60 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 34% strikeout rate (12th-best in MiLB among pitchers with 60+ innings).

Theo Gillen has broken out in Low-A. His 150 wRC+, 19.8% walk rate, and manageable 23.1% strikeout rate highlight a disciplined approach rarely seen in young hitters. In Charleston, optimism extends beyond Gillen. Jose Urbina has impressed as a 19-year-old with a 1.94 ERA, 3.52 FIP, and 25% strikeout rate, backed by a possible plus fastball touching the upper 90s and two breaking pitches with plus potential. His continued progression could see him increase his prospect standing.

Trevor Harrison earned a promotion after a strong A-ball showing (2.61 ERA, 3.22 FIP). His strikeout rate dipped to 22.4%, but the tradeoff came with limiting home runs at just 0.11 per nine after 0.62 HR/9 in 2024. That number is due for regression but is likely also an intentional adjustment, an encouraging sign of growth for a 19 year old pitcher.

Yes, the Rays’ farm system looks optically weaker than a year ago. Rankings have slipped, and 2025 brought setbacks. But beneath the surface, plenty of players are progressing. With Williams refining improving and still producing a 20-20 season amid a down season, Hopkins and Johnson emerging as rotation pieces, and younger players like Gillen, Harrison, and Urbina flashing real upside, the outlook remains strong. 2026 could just as easily be a year the Rays’ system surges forward again, proof that prospect development is never a linear progression, and perspective is key when evaluating the future players.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!