RBLR Rays Roundtable #29 – Outfield Of Dreams?
This week, our writers dug into a bullpen revival headlined by Edwin Uceta, broke down Christopher Morel’s uneven season and role in the lineup, and looked ahead to what the Rays’ outfield picture could resemble in 2026.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Uceta’s bounceback
There haven’t been too many things to be positive about surrounding the 2025 Rays, but the bullpen has really turned into form.
Since July 1st, the Rays bullpen leads all of baseball in K-BB% with a 21.7% rate, 4.4% above the closest team in that time frame. A big reason why? Edwin Uceta has really turned the corner. For the first 3 months of the season, Uceta was effectively useless and was demoted to low-leverage work at times this season. Uceta was 5th-worst in fWAR amongst qualified relievers with a -.3 in that time span, and was really struggling with home run suppression as he allowed a 14% barrel% (1st percentile) and a 18.3% HR/FB%, which would also land in the 1st percentile.
Uceta flipped the script in July as he has been worth 1.1 fWAR, which ranks 1st amongst qualified relievers, and has suppressed barrels at a much better rate, running a 1.9% barrel%.
Reasons for his resurgence? He has jumped from the 40th percentile to the 75th percentile in Zone%, and has cut his cutter usage in half, a pitch which has allowed a .502 wOBA and a .643 slug. Uceta has spiked his GB% to 40.4% (up from 29%) as well, which will certainly go a long way in home run suppression moving forward for him.
Zach Daab (@RealZachDaab) : Will Morel get a chance to close the year?
Trading Isaac Paredes looked like a difficult but logical move: Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda were pushing from Durham, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz were locked in contracts and producing, and the Rays needed outfield power.
Christopher Morel, fresh off a 26-HR, 120 wRC+ ‘23 season with the Cubs, fit that bill. But in 438 PAs with Tampa Bay he’s hit just 11 homers with a 33.8% K rate and a 71 wRC+, while Paredes has posted a 121 wRC+ since leaving.
But anyone who has lineup notifications on for this team could tell you that you can’t tell the story of Morel’s time with the Rays without discussing his playing time. He got a good run to begin the season, but since April, less than a third of his appearances have been on consecutive days. 21% of his 88 appearances this season have been as a substitute as well, where he has a comically bad -40 WRC+. Any hitter will tell you getting a rhythm is vital for their success.
So then why have the Rays not stuck with their trade centerpiece more? It was easy to begin the season, with injuries to J-Lowe and JDL clearing the way for Morel. But as J-Lowe has returned, and Chandler Simpson has established himself in the majors, it has been tougher to find spots for him.
Some other intrinsic qualities make it hard to get him in the lineup, such as his subpar defense. He sports a -8.7 Def (per FanGraphs) on the year. He is also a reverse splits RHB, with his 103 WRC+ vs RHP being 33 points better than his 70 WRC+ vs LHP. Many of the Rays top bats (B-Lowe, Aranda, J-Lowe, Chandler, etc) excel against RHP.
The Rays have desperately needed help against LHP, with a bottom to third of the league WRC+ against them this year, and Morel has not been the answer. That has not been for lack of trying, as Morel has the 3rd most PA vs LHP on the team behind only everyday starters Yandy and Junior. Clearly an effort has been made to acclimate him to LHP, which he only saw about 1/4 of his PA in his last full season with the Cubs, compared to around 1/2 of his PA this season with the Rays. Additionally, he has been very good at home, with a 121 WRC+ at home but horrible with a 42 WRC+ on the road. Connected to that, 13 of his 19 PH appearances have been on the road.
As poor as he is viewed by Rays fans, you might be surprised to know that since the AS break Morel is third on the team behind Junior and Yandy with a 119 WRC+ in addition to his 3rd ranked .256 ISO and .535 SLG. That puts him as the 8th best LFer in the AL in that span. Not lighting the world on fire, but much closer to what we expect of him.
So what to do with Morel? JDL locks down center when healthy, with Josh Lowe in right. That leaves Chandler, Morel, and Periera fighting for scraps in the outfield, while DH is even more crowded with Yandy, B-Lowe, Aranda, and Bob Seymour. Second base is a stretch with Brayden Taylor rising and Tre Morgan pushing for outfield reps. It’s little wonder Morel’s playing time has been scarce.
The Rays have 28 games left as of time of writing this. My humble outfield suggestion for the rest of the way is Morel/Chandler/J-Lowe.
It may not be the best option to win games based on defense, but it would give guys the best chance to put something together offensively. All three will be key contributors to either a playoff run or to next season.
Carter Brantley (@ctbrantley12) : What does the Rays outfield look like in 2026?
Going into this season it seemed like Jonny DeLuca, Josh Lowe, and Christopher Morel were primed to be the trio roaming in the GMS outfield grass.
Injuries and underperformance have plagued all 3, with JDL only appearing in 20 games up to this point, Morel being regulated to part time work (he’s only just now about to reach 260 plate appearances for the year, in contrast to the 611 he got last year), and J-Lowe dealing with both nagging injuries and a sharp drop off in production after a scorching May/early June.
Morel’s lack of performance has been well documented, with another season of bad defense (-5 OAA in left) and an increase in his strikeout rate with a drop off in his walk rate. He’s still got some pop, as his ISO sits at .186 and he still has the elite bat speed and solid quality of contact (the rare occasion he does actually make contact) metrics that made him an attractive trade candidate for the Rays.
You can blame Morel’s lack of inconsistent playing time for this decline/lack of progress, or you can cite his decline/lack of progress for the decision to decrease his plate appearances, but either way it’s been a very disappointing year for the former Cub.
J-Lowe had that incredible stretch after returning from the IL in late May but has seen his own production fall off a cliff in recent months, with wRC+ marks of 51 and 77 in the months of July and August respectively.
Jake Mangum has gotten some run as the switch hitter during JDL’s injury stint and takes a page out of the Luis Arraez 2025 school of hitting; no walks, no power, just don’t strikeout. Which would be a fine approach if he were running the high batting average and OBP marks of batting champion Arraez, but instead it’s led to a meager 87 wRC+.
So where do the Rays go from here, with both Lowe and Morel arbitration eligible in 2026 and neither being nearly as good as needed over the past two seasons?
Chandler Simpson’s inability to provide any reasonable upgrade over Morel in left due to his nonexistent power and similarly-subpar defense doesn’t inspire confidence that he could be a consistent part of the Rays 2026 plans, but perhaps they’re counting on a full offseason giving him runway to bounce back and show he can at least play a passable outfield defensively.
Even then, Simpson’s singles-only profile in left would still be a tough pill to swallow for a team in need of more consistent offensive production from the outfield corners, especially if he’s only able to progress to being an average-at-best outfielder defensively.
Hopefully JDL can stay healthy in 2026 (a non-insignificant gamble), but it wouldn’t hurt to have a better backup plan than Mangum or watching Simpson struggle to be a major league center fielder.
If the Rays don’t want to miss the playoffs in the 2026 season, new ownership could breathe some life into the payroll, allowing the Rays to be a bit less risk-averse when it comes to player acquisition, and thus letting them try and seek external upgrades instead of hoping any of their current outfielders can figure it out.
Or maybe the Rays just stick with what they’ve got and hope Morel and J-Lowe can return to their previous “glory” of being average-to-slightly-above-average major league starters, and JDL can avoid the IL and fulfill his fun potential as a great defensive center fielder with a league-average bat.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
