RBLR Rays Roundtable #30 – Prospect Promotions, Pitching, and the Playoff Push
This week, our writers checked in on the newest addition to the Hot Rods, monitored Pete’s workload, reflected on Pepiot’s progress, and looked at how the Rays are making the Wild Card race interesting.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Flewelling to Bowling Green
A few months ago, I highlighted a few of the “under the radar” Rays prospects, one of whom was recently promoted, Nathan Flewelling. Flewelling has flown under the radar throughout his entire 2025 campaign, landing at 27 on MLB Pipeline’s updated top 30 list, and 36th (40 FV) according to FanGraphs. Extremely questionable marks for a player who has significantly increased his production since the publication of the prior article.
Since the 27th of June, the Rays 2024 3rd round pick is running a 147 wRC+, and walking at a 23% clip, all of this production while being in a league where he is 2.5 years below the average player. Nathan nabbed the Rays minor league bat of the month in August after putting together a 179 wRC+, .479 OBP, and a steady .182 ISO.
The Rays catching prospect then earned a rather aggressive promotion to A+ Bowling Green, as he now resides in a league where he is 4 years below the average South Atlantic League player. Albeit an extremely minute sample size (13 PAs), Flewelling has a 144 wRC+ and 15.4% BB% for Bowling Green. With the season winding down and the playoffs approaching, this should be a very valuable experience for Flewelling, as he has proven the Rays right by drafting him up to this point.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Is Pete Fairbanks overworked?
Coming off the heels of a blown save, Peter Fairbanks was as frustrated as anyone has ever seen him publicly, as a profanity laden interview seemed to sum up a rough stretch for Fairbanks. He has given up 7 runs and 5 home runs in his last 13 innings.
I wrote earlier this year about Fairbanks’ stuff being a tick down than it historically has been, and with his whiff and K% numbers still being down from his peak years, and Fairbanks is now 8 innings over his career high with about a month left to play, and the Rays finding themselves back in the mix after a big winning streak and a massive sweep of Seattle, could moving Fairbanks out of high leverage be an option? The Griffin Jax acquisition should have taken some of the stress and high leverage innings away from Fairbanks in theory, but the Rays haven’t seen results from Jax since coming over, and it seems like they could be experimenting with him in an opener role now. Edwin Uceta has turned his season around big time after his dreadful start, Garrett Cleavinger is always a reliable presence in the bullpen and has been for years, and Bryan Baker has seriously turned it around following his rough start, now running a 1.20 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 1.93 xFIP since August 1st.
The Rays have a capable bullpen, and will need to be creative to take some of the stress off Fairbanks, who may not see peak form for the rest of the season.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Pepiot pitching-in
In a year where progression from young Rays seemingly stagnated aside from Junior Caminero, Ryan Pepiot has quietly put up solid numbers down the stretch.
Ryan Pepiot was my pick out of the three young controllable starters the Rays had to leap into being the Rays’ #2 by putting up a +3 plus WAR season. Sitting at 2.1 fWAR, the chance of a 3+ WAR season is highly unlikely, and a significant reason for Pep not achieving a three fWAR season is due to the ballpark he resides in.
His HR/9 rate of 1.74 is dramatically higher than his road rate of 1.08, if adjusted to last year’s HR/9 rate of 1.13 at home, Pep’s total HRs allowed would drop from 17 at home to 11. That reduction would bring his FIP down from 4.40 to 3.92. With an over half-run drop in his FIP, he would put himself in similar company with Carlos Rodon’s 3.89 FIP, which has been good for 2.7 fWAR over 170.1 innings this year.
Pep has been better this year, with no real change seen in his stuff+ profile. There has also been a concerted effort to put the ball on the ground this year, with a 2.8% increase in groundball rate, which has led to a 1.7% decrease in strikeout rate. However, Pepiot continues to improve his most significant area of concern as a prospect, which was his control issues, further decreasing his walk rate to 8.7% on the year.
There is reason to be excited for Pep’s last few starts as the Rays attempt to close the three-game gap currently in the wild card standings. With Rasmussen heading a possible postseason rotation, Pepiot would slot in very well as the #2 behind Ras.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays) : Making it interesting
Leave it to the Rays to keep things interesting in the American League with less than a month of baseball to go.
This season has been a rollercoaster: early struggles adjusting to a new ballpark, a hot streak through late May and June, and another slump before and after the All-Star break. And then, just when it felt like things were slipping away, the team strung together a seven-game win streak. Of note, that stretch included a three-game sweep of the Mariners, who are also vying for the final AL Wild Card spot, making the surge even more significant. That run trimmed a 7.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race to a manageable gap, stirring the playoff conversation back up.
The Rays can credit several factors for that turnaround: Junior Caminero staying red-hot (including his 40th home run), Jonathan Aranda’s steady offense, Brandon Lowe looking more like his old self, and a sharper, more reliable pitching staff and bullpen.
With fewer than 20 games left, every win carries more weight. No single series makes a season, but getting hot this late is exactly how a team keeps its postseason hopes alive.
I’ll be honest: back in August, I was close to throwing in the towel—and I know I wasn’t alone. There’s still reason for cautious optimism, but if the Rays can ride this momentum into the final weeks, they might just turn a frustratingly uneven season into one that carries them into a postseason run. Of course, that still hinges on a lot of variables and many things going their way, notably the Mariners, Rangers, and Royals—all leading them in the Wild Card race—faltering. As of this writing, FanGraphs puts the Rays’ playoff chances at just 4.0%, highlighting how much needs to go right for them. The ebbs and flows of the season have made it tough to know how good this team really is, but right now, they’re keeping the playoff race suspenseful.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
