Bucs Outlast Jets, Look to Rain on Philly’s Parade

The Bucs managed to outlast the New York Jets on Sunday, another down to the wire thriller that was way closer than it needed to be. The Bucs are now 3-0 with all three of their winning scores coming in the final minute.

The Bucs are tied with the 2020 Tennessee Titans and the 2005 Washington Redskins for the lowest point differential of a 3-0 team with +6, meaning that the combined margin of victory of their three games is 6 points.

The Bucs are 3-0 for the first time since 2005 and will look to extend their win streak to 4 at home against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The Good

The Bucs played a fantastic game on both sides of the ball for three quarters. The defense had four sacks, their highest mark so far this season, and forced their first two turnovers of the year as well. 

Antoine Winfield Jr. looks much more like his previous self so far this season, a complete flip from last year when he struggled to stay healthy. His strip-sack on Sunday is the 12th fumble he has forced in his career, good enough to tie him with Vikings Safety Harrison Smith (12 year career) for second among active defensive backs, with Ravens Cornerback Marlon Humphrey (8 year career) leading active defensive backs with 15. He got his 18th career sack on the same play, which is the most among active defensive backs since 2020, when he entered the league. He also jumped into the top ten in sacks by a defensive back in NFL history.  He allowed just 1 catch against the Jets, and it went for -5 yards. 

The other half of the safety duo has looked fantastic as well. Tykee Smith, who has transitioned from Nickel to Safety this season, allowed just 3 catches for 22 yards on 5 targets, and contributed another 7 tackles this week. He has been fantastic against the run, amassing a team high 24 tackles (tied with CB Zyon McCollum), which places him at 7th among all safeties this season. 

Jamel Dean played a (literal) lights out game against the Jets, not giving up a single catch all game in his 38 snaps. He also finally managed to get his hands on a football, returning it 55 yards for a score right before halftime. So far this season he’s allowed 6 catches for 58 yards on 15 targets, which amounts to a passer rating of 23.8 when he’s been targeted (according to PFF).

His coverage grade of 80.1 is the second highest in the league so far this season among cornerbacks. He’s legitimately playing at an all-pro level at the moment, a startling development if you’ve watched a Bucs game in the last seven years. While he has never been truly awful, there have been many times where he fails the eye test. But on the defensive side of the ball, it seems like everything is finally coming together in Tampa Bay.

Yaya Diaby has been another bright spot for the Bucs on defense this year. His 11 pressures against the Jets are the most by any player in a single game since week 8 of last season. As a whole the defense got 4 sacks on 32 (!!!) pressures on Tyrod Taylor’s 47 drop backs. He looks to get another sack against the Eagles, who he was successful against last season, when he garnered a 30% pressure rate and a sack.

On the offensive side of the ball the Bucs managed to get the job done despite the lackluster play from their backup offensive line. The passing game was outstanding, with Baker Mayfield throwing for the most yards he has all season, and he managed to tie his single game career mark of 44 yards on the ground. He is fifth this season in rushing yards, and he has fewer carries than anyone ahead of him. While his passing yardage stats aren’t flashy, he’s one of only seven players with 6 passing touchdowns or more, and he’s done so without his all-pro Left Tackle or his second best target. And of course, once again, he took the offense down the field for a literal last second score.

Emeka Egbuka should very easily be the rookie of the year leader right now. He led the team this week with 85 yards on 6 catches, and he very easily could’ve had the one target he dropped. He also should have had a catch on the sideline in the two minute drill had it been reviewed, but nevertheless, Egbuka has looked every bit the part of a first round pick and then some. While his yardage total is nothing crazy, he has an opportunity to play WR1 with Mike Evans set to miss time and Chris Godwin just now beginning his ramp up with a limit on his playing time.

For every bad word I wrote about Sterling Shepard last season, he’ll gain a yard, apparently. He finished with 80 yards on his four catches, including a catch and run on a screen that made the game-winning field goal nearly a chip shot. After a drop filled year last season, Shepard has been incredibly reliable as a veteran presence. His connection with Mayfield is undeniable,  as Shepard has 9 first downs on just 11 catches, and he has also posted the most yards per route run of his entire career so far this season.

For all the penalties… The offensive line did just fine in pass protection. Baker was sacked just once in his 35 drop backs, which is as good as you can ask for with an offensive line made of duct tape, WD-40, and UPS drivers. Baker was only pressured 18 times, a far cry from the 31 he faced in week 2. While obviously the Jets defensive line isn’t nearly the same as the Texans, the Bucs offensive line coaches deserve massive raises for how they’ve managed to keep the offense alive with backup offensive linemen.

Hopefully this is the last time I need to write about Chase McLaughlin all season after struggling in the first two weeks of the season, Money McLaughlin went 2/2 on his extra points and 5/5 on his field goals (yes, one was blocked, but what can he do about that one?). He should be back on track now, but it certainly will be stressful to watch him face an Eagles kick block unit that blocked two last week.

The Bad

The Bucs run game was inefficient to say the least. Bucky Irving had 25 carries, only the second time of his career that he’s managed that many, and something he never did in college. I would be willing to argue that Irving should almost never have that many carries in a game, especially when he only has 66 yards in the game (2.6 yards per carry). While Rachaad White was also inefficient in his limited work, he showed last week his explosiveness late in the game, when he had 65 yards on 10 carries. While obviously it’s fun to see a workhorse running back garner a million touches per game and put up all the stats by themselves, neither of the Bucs running backs have the body of work to show they can be that guy. Both backs in moderation would be a more effective usage of both players. 

Listen. I’m a referee apologist. I’ve been a referee. There might not be enough money on the planet to get me to do it for the NFL. There’s no universe where it’s easy, fun, or stress free at the NFL level. But… boy oh boy was the officiating rough this past week in all directions. There’s a Tom Brady quote from a podcast appearance (Let’s Go Podcast episode from 1/30/2023) that says “Are you allowed to hold? No, you’re not; it’s against the rules. Is there holding by the offensive line and defensive line on every play? Yes.” The officials seemed determined to call it at every opportunity on Sunday. There were over 200 total penalty yards in the game, with 91 of them coming on the Bucs opening drive that ended in a field goal. 50 of those yards were on offensive holds. While I would rather see my Quarterback not get sacked, the offensive line absolutely cost the Bucs offense on that drive. 

There was also a weak pass interference call on that drive that saved the Bucs on 3rd and a country mile, and a phantom pass interference that took away a second Jamel Dean interception.

And of course… who could forget the blocked field goal. While it was an impressive athletic feat, there’s no way a flag was not thrown on the play, especially given that it’s not reviewable. No help from replay assist upstairs means they miss a blocker being held down so that Will McDonald IV could make the jump, and the fact that he lands on a lineman’s foot, both of which should have had the play blown dead. But who am I to complain about referees in a victory article?

The Ugly

The blocked kick would not have needed to matter if they hadn’t forgotten that NFL games are four quarters and not three-period hockey games. The Bucs let the Jets have two long touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, which is especially disappointing given how dominant the first half was. While obviously the Allen Lazard touchdown was questionable, there was no way it would get overturned with the call on the field being a catch. 

Todd Bowles defenses seem to have this alarming trend over the last two seasons of allowing underneath routes in order to prevent the deep completions, which would work if they were better open field tacklers. But even the most elementary quarterbacks can slice and dice you up the field if you keep letting them have the underneath routes. It does make me wonder what this decision stems from. Did the Cooper Kupp catch in 2021 scare Todd Bowles into never playing less than prevent defense to finish games?

The Road Ahead

The Bucs get to play a very important measuring stick game this Sunday against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, both of whom are 3-0. The Eagles have also won three one score games, and they’ve had to do it in multiple ways. They have the best rushing offense in the league with RB Saquon Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts combining for 100+ in each of the first two games, but the Bucs have one of the best rushing defenses in the league. They’ve only allowed a high of 43 yards to Nick Chubb of the Houston Texans and 48 for NYJ QB Tyrod Taylor this past week.

While Jalen Hurts has been an effective runner this year, he’s never had more than 44 against the Bucs in his career. As a matter of fact Jalen Hurts posts a 1-4 record against the Bucs in his career including two playoff games, averaging about 20 completions on 34 attempts (59%), 212 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown and 1 interception, as well as 7 rushes for 27 yards and nearly a fumble per game on the ground. He’s also been sacked 14 times in those five games. 

The key to the Bucs success will be to limit the success of this duo. The Eagles offense has been reluctant to pass this year despite the talent level of their WR duo, and so early success against the run will mean forcing them to the air where the Bucs have had fairly good success especially over the last two weeks. 

The Bucs offense meanwhile, will have their work cut out for them. The Eagles allowed LAR running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to combine for nearly 150 yards last week and 11 catches for 152 for Puka Nacua. Remember back to the Texans preview, where the Texans had just played the Rams? The Bucs roster construction and scheme on offense is deadly similar, and they just need to not let the Eagles back in the game the way the Rams did. 

Much like the Jets dragged the game into the mud last week, the Bucs must make this game very messy for the Eagles. They’ll need to jump out to a quick early lead and run the ball as often as they can manage. The Eagles will be without star pass rusher Nolan Smith, who was sorely missed last week when the Eagles generated just 14 pressures without him.

The Bucs have an opportunity to take out perhaps the top contender in the NFC this week. While the Eagles are one of the best teams in the league, the Bucs match up in all the right ways. Even though the Eagles got here a day early, expect the heat to be a huge factor as well, as the Eagles melt in the Tampa Bay heat.

Prediction: Bucs W, Bucs 19 – Eagles 17