RBLR Rays Roundtable #35 – Pitching Hope & Hype
This week, our writers recapped the great season from Brody Hopkins, presented the case that Griffin Jax was unlucky, and examined Joe Boyle’s promising progress.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Brody Hopkins Hype
Following a sensational debut season in professional baseball, Brody Hopkins entered 2025 with high expectations. Hopkins began the year ranked 4th in the Rays system according to FanGraphs and got a 50 FV valuation, indicating his most likely outcome is a mid-rotation starter.
Hopkins backed up the rather aggressive ranking with an extremely productive season, posting a 3.33 FIP across his 116 innings of work in AA, ranking him second among qualified Southern League pitchers. Following his productive season, Hopkins catapulted up to the 64th prospect in all of baseball and 2nd in the Rays organization – both according to FanGraphs.
The knock on Hopkins is clear if you just briefly visit his FanGraphs page and its strike-throwing. Hopkins ended his 2025 campaign walking 12.2% of the batters he faced (which would have ranked last among qualified major league pitchers), and earned a 30/45 command grade according to FanGraphs.
Hopkins ceiling will always be hindered based on his ability to throw strikes; his 10.5% BB% from July 1st to the end of the season creates a bit of optimism with his long-term future as a starter. His low slot, plus carry on his high velo fastball from that slot (15.1 IVB), and his plus breaking ball make it pretty easy to understand how someone who walked so many batters also struck out 28.7% of the batters he faced.
Hopkins seems like the most intriguing player to track entering next season. The sky is a front-line starter for him, and if everything comes together has a chance to make a big impact on the major league team as soon as next season.
Dustin Teuton (u/FLBoy19) : Bad luck for Jax
With the Rays lacking a true shutdown relief arm to get into the 9th for the bulk of the season, the bullpen struggled. The Rays surely hope Griffin Jax will be able to step into that shutdown relief role that Nick Anderson and Jason Adams once had.
Pitching+ is an all-encompassing stat that weighs Location+, Stuff+, and situational context via counts and batter handedness. Griffin Jax produced the 3rd highest Pitching+ value among pitchers with 60 innings last year at 127. Overall, from a standpoint of what Jax could control, he was 27% better than league average.
Griffin Jax’s stats from 2025 are truly boggling. Before his move to the Rays, Jax was producing a 2.05 FIP and a xERA of 3.16, but a 4.50 ERA – all of which was heavily tied to his poor BABIP luck. A player who has a career average BABIP of .286 was so unlucky that his BABIP on July 30th sat at .389. A pitcher with a 29.0% K-BB% actually had a 4.50 ERA. That is ridiculous.
Of the 19 pitchers with 60 innings and a K-BB% of 25% or more, Jax’s 4.23 ERA is only outdone by Cole Ragans’ 4.67 ERA, who received similar BABIP luck at .354, and Devin Williams’ 4.79 ERA; he cannot stake a similar claim to poor BABIP luck at .296.
Griffin Jax is a dominant reliever; in high-leverage situations last year, Jax actually produced significantly lower line-drive rates (22.7% vs 28.6% and 28.8% in medium and low leverage situations respectively), hard-hit% (22.5% vs 28.6% and 38.5%), but was undone by a .386 BABIP in those situations, evident in his infield hit percentage almost doubling from 12.5% in medium leverage to 23.8% in high leverage. Jax’s 3.08 xFIP in high-leverage situations is more representative of his actual talent level in those situations than his 4.10, and he should be the actual shutdown piece of the bullpen in 2026.
Ben (@benwhitelaw73) : Joe Boyle’s growth outlook
Joe Boyle quietly made some significant strides this season in his first year as a Ray. His 4.67 ERA/4.19 FIP don’t suggest “significant strides” were made, but they are an improvement from his time in the majors with the Athletics. I don’t really care about his ERA, FIP, xFIP, Stuff+, xwERAOOPSYDIGGSfbWAR+, or anything like that; Boyle needed to improve his command and control and that’s exactly what he did.
Above is a chart depicting Boyle’s combined strike% and zone% for his arsenal at both the AAA and ML levels for his career. You don’t need me to explain the meaningful trend we’ve seen that began in March (and off the field, the meaningful adjustments likely started back in December 2024 when he was acquired), but I do want to turn your attention to the zone% column.
Joe Boyle finished the 2025 season with three consecutive months above 50%. The ML average zone% is typically 49-50% each year. The important thing here is the trend more than the exact numbers. The whiff and EV suppression have always been there, so finding a way for Boyle to get in the zone more will help him reach a new level.
It’s a race to two strikes before a pitcher can expand the zone; I’m confident the strike rates will continue to climb and hitters have to respect his emerging control. He also did all this while learning a new offspeed pitch – those are typically the most difficult to command and have relatively low in-zone rates.
Three plus pitches, a career high workload, and budding command all bode well for Boyle in 2026.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
