Bucs “Halfway” Awards / Week 10 Preview vs NE
The Bucs have passed their halfway mark of the season, and it’s been about as good as you could ask for. With that being said, if the season ended today, who have been the Bucs Award winners, and the NFL Award winners?
Bucs MVP
I mean this essentially the Quarterback award at this point, but it’s deserved in this case. Baker was lights out for the first six weeks, and had some down games as he lost weapons and linemen to injury. While his incredible yardage touchdown numbers have come down this year, he’s still having one of the best years of his career. He’s even turned down his turnover rates, even more impressive because they’ve come down at a much steeper rate than his other stats.While he prepares for the hardest stretch of the year, his last six games will hopefully let them stat pad, and his best weapons will start getting healthy during this stretch of games.
NFL MVP
The NFL needs to break the cycle and give this award to Jonathan Taylor. He leads the league in yards, rushing touchdowns, total touchdowns, and yards per carry. The Daniel Jones renaissance can thank Jonathan Taylor, who’s looked far and away like the best running back on the planet this season. He’s set to break the rushing touchdown record, and he’ll probably be within range to break 2000 yards on the year towards the end of the year.
Bucs OPOY
Everybody say thank you Jason Licht. Emeka Egbuka has far and away been the Bucs best weapon, partially because he’s the only one that’s been healthy. He’s 12th in the league in receiving yards even despite the bye week, and he hasn’t had a 100 yard game since week five, partially due to his own health. But the rookie is set to be Mayfield’s top target for the foreseeable future, and he’ll have a long, successful career in Tampa, as we’ve seen receivers with similar archetypes, body types, skill sets, be the best receivers in the league, and he’s been among the very best in terms of quick starts to a career.
NFL OPOY
In all honesty this will probably be either Jonathan Taylor or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but given that I have Taylor winning MVP, this would then be the best quarterback in the league. Matt Stafford has been the guy to me. To this point he leads the league in touchdowns with 21 with a three touchdown lead despite a game less than Justin Herbert and two games less than Bo Nix, who are tied for second. He also leads the league in yards per game and he has the Rams looking like one of the very best offenses in the league.
Bucs DPOY
Jamel Dean, where has this been? For a guy with the seventh year vet set a career high in interceptions with three (t-4th in the NFL), and he did so in week seven of this season, and he’s also forced two fumbles (t-5th in the NFL), another career high. He scored the second pick six of his career, and logged his first career sack. He’s set for a pretty sizable payday this offseason, as he’s allowed the lowest passer rating when targeted this season with 30.2 (min. 200 snaps).
NFL DPOY
I think Jamel Dean has a good shot at winning this award, as he’s the only player that’s forced 5 turnovers this year, and the only with at least two interceptions, two forced fumbles and a sack on the year (and he has an extra interception). He’s got a better shot than any defensive back in the last few years at getting this one, and I think as good a shot as any of the pass rushers.
Bucs OROY
Yes this is also Emeka Egbuka, but shout out to the runner up Tez Johnson, who’s had the biggest immediate impact from a seventh round pick (aside from Brock Purdy) I can remember in recent NFL history. Despite the bye week and only having three starts under his belt, he’s tenth in rookie receiving yards, just 21 yards behind 1st round pick Matthew Golden. He’ll look to be a part of this receiving core for a long time to come, alongside Egbuka and Jalen McMillan at the very least.
NFL OROY
Yeah. It’s Egbuka without a doubt. He’s got a game fewer than Tet McMillan and Tyler Warren, and he still has more receiving yards and as many touchdowns as the two of them combined. Obviously, Jaxson Dart has entered the conversation, but has yet to throw for 300 yards, nor has he looked dominant by any stretch. He’s 2-4 as a starter and his second half schedule looks difficult to say the least.
Bucs DROY
Jacob Parrish has been absolutely fantastic as a nickel corner, replacing Tykee Smith who has moved to safety. While he’s yet to get his hands on a ball and force a turnover, he’s tied for second among all rookies with 2.0 sacks and he’s got five quarterback hits on top of that (AS A NICKEL CORNER). He’s been an absolute baller for a revamped secondary in Tampa this year.
NFL DROY
This is a very interesting race, in that the betting odds don’t match production, and the production doesn’t match the draft positions of the players. As usual, the favorites are from the ‘big market’ teams. To me, it’s been Jalon Walker in Atlanta, who’s been a hybrid Linebacker and Edge. He leads all rookies in sacks with 3.0, and he has a pass defensed as well as a fumble forced on top of it, all of which is more than Abdul Carter.
COTY
Naturally, I’ll be a homer and say it’s Todd Bowles. He’s got what was one of the worst units in the league last season playing like a top 5 group this year, and he’s led them through so much injury adversity this season, getting the team to 6-2 and himself into the top three Bucs coaches by win percentage.
All Pros
I have the Bucs with four first team All-Pros this season, with Tristan Wirfs at LT, both Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith at Safety, and Jamel Dean at Corner. I think there’s a chance Vita Vea finally gets on as a nose tackle, but his sack production isn’t gaudy enough and the voters love sack number above all else (despite his elite run defense)
Patriots Preview
The Bucs will be facing the 7-2 Patriots at home this weekend in a matchup of each conferences #2 Playoff Seed, their first matchup since 2021, with the best quarterback for each franchise in their respective post-Brady Era’s.
The Patriots have won six games in a row, including a game against the Atlanta Falcons in much the same manner the Bucs did: the Falcons missing another kick to tie the game late. While it’s an impressive start to the year, the opponents they’ve beat have been lackluster to say the least. They’ve only faced three opponents with winning records, against whom they’re 2-1, but their opponents combined record is just 27-49, while the Bucs combined opponent record is 31-35. Obviously, not exactly a measure of how good a team is, but still indicative of the easy schedule for the Patriots.
The Patriots are bottom ten in passing yards allowed per game, in the bottom half in passing touchdowns allowed per game, but they’ve got just as many interceptions as the Bucs this season (although an extra game due to the Bucs bye week). Their rush defense is the best in the league in terms of yards per game and second best in touchdowns on the ground as well, and they’ve been one of the best scoring defenses in the league so far. Very similar to the Bucs, but with worse competition.
Offensively, Drake Maye is as hot as they come right now. He’s fourth in pass yards and tied for third in touchdowns, while leading the league in completion percentage. He’s got a PFF grade of 99.9 on throws over 20 yards, completing 20 of 28 for 628 yards and 6 touchdowns on the year.
He’s looked fairly average against pressure, but he beats blitz’s very, very well for a second year player, Throwing for 745 yards, 6 touchdowns, and just one interception while completing 74.4% of his passes. Luckily, the Bucs have been one of the better pass rushing units without the blitz, ranking tenth in pressures and sixth in sacks before their bye week.
The Bucs pass rush will perhaps be the most important unit on the field for Tampa Bay this weekend. Drake Maye has one of the highest sack rates in the league, but his adjusted sack rate against non-blitzed pressure is atrocious. When rushed with four or less players, opposing defenses have produced an incredible 85.7% conversion rate from pressures to sacks. The worst QB by this metric last season was Caleb Williams, who allowed a 54.5% of non-blitzed pressures to become sacks. Granted, the Bucs will again be without Haason Reddick, who was expected to be a dominant force in the preseason, but the unit has been a force even in his absence, with nine sacks over their last two games. In fact, the team has 15 of their 25 sacks over the last three games since they were shut out against Seattle.
The New England defense, on the other hand, is highlighted by their league best rushing defense, allowing less than 75 yards per game on the ground, and the Bucs are coming off one of their worst rushing performances of the year. Do not expect a great game from Rachaad White or Sean Tucker even as the offensive line gets healthier. While they did give up totals to Carolina’s committee (combined 114 yards on 26 carries, ~4.4ypc), and the Bills combination of Josh Allen and James Cook (102 total on 23 carries, also ~4.4ypc).
While the Bucs defense has been terrible against running backs through the air, by far the worst in the league, the Patriots have been fourth worst by total receiving yards, and they’ve been far more battle tested (15 more targets, 13 more catches), but neither team has had a running back (that’s set to play this weekend) go over 32 yards receiving, though both Rachaad White and TreVeyon Henderson have logged 30 yard games with four or fewer targets.
The Patriots have also been a bottom ten unit against Tight Ends, and with the offensive line finally expected to be healthy, look for a big week from Cade Otton, who’s still hunting his first touchdown of the year.
The Bucs will once again be without Chris Godwin Jr. and Bucky Irving, as we’ve gotten used to at this point, but they’ll presumably have their offensive line as intact as it will get for the rest of the season, with right tackle Luke Goedeke returning to the field for the first time since week two, and backup right guard Luke Haggard back for the first time since week six. The pair of Lukes should catapult the offense back where they’ve been before, improving on terrible performances both run blocking and pass protecting. While obviously you want the big name skill position guys back, having meatheads back in the lineup up front will give the offense an immediate boost after two pretty bad weeks in a row. While they’re both still listed as questionable, neither missed a full day of practice and both were full participants on Friday.
The Patriots on the other hand, will be without their WR2 and lead back in WR Kayshon Boutte and RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Boutte has been by far their most explosive receiver, averaging over 18 yards per reception, second only to Indianapolis Colts’ Alec Pierce. Rhamondre Stevenson had been their leading rusher on the season, though he had been splitting carries with rookie Treveyon Henderson, who overtook his yardage total last week with Stevenson out with injury.
An important thing to keep an eye on in this game is turnovers. I have a feeling that whoever wins the turnover battle wins this game (as is true almost always in the NFL). Baker Mayfield is tied for the third best number in terms of interception percentage, with just two interceptions (only one of which was his fault), a stark improvement after his league leading 16 interceptions last season, and he’s being sacked less often so far this year as well.
Drake Maye has four interceptions on 255 attempts, tied for tenth best percentage in the league. While he’s been sacked a ton, a function of his league worst 3.07 time to throw (min. 300 dropbacks), he, along with Mayfield, each have six fumbles on the year, tied for second most in the league.
The Bucs have luckily recovered all but one of Mayfield’s fumbles, bringing their total turnovers up to five including fumbles by Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton, second lowest total in the league. The Patriots on the other hand, can’t seem to hold onto the ball, with all three of their running backs having an even number of fumbles and touchdowns (at best).
While neither defense ranks in the top half of the league in fumbles forced, both teams are tied for ninth in the league in interceptions.
These teams match up very evenly so far this season, but they’ve played wildly different schedules. The Bucs have essentially faced the entire NFC playoff picture, including the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 7th seeds, against whom they are an even 2-2. The Patriots have only played the 4th and 5th seeds in the AFC, with a 1-1 record. But five of their opponents have two or fewer wins on the season (CLE, NOR, TEN, MIA, LV), the currently projected 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 7th overall picks.
Obviously, this game won’t be a blow out. Both of these teams are likely playoff teams, with very good units on both sides of the ball. The Bucs will be the best defense Drake Maye has seen all year besides Cleveland (who lost despite a 5.0 sack game from Myles Garrett), and likely the best he sees all year long. Meanwhile the Bucs have run a gauntlet of good defenses, including Houston, Atlanta, Seattle, San Francisco, and Philadelphia, who the Bucs went 4-1 against, their lone loss coming against Philly in what looked like a very winnable game.
I have the Bucs coming out on top, playing their first complete game of the year with Baker throwing three touchdowns for the first time all year and another four sack game for the defense with at least two turnovers.
Prediction: Bucs Win, 31-21
