Franco and Brujan and Walls (oh my!) ft. The Greatest Two-Way Ray of All Time

http://gty.im/1328427630

All the data I use is publicly available and found on Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and Savant – I just do my best to contextualize everything and help paint a picture. It’s also important to figure out the “why”; everything the Rays do as an organization has a purpose. They’ll never just throw money at things or rush a decision. Approaching situations with this view and always asking “why” is what leads me to all of my analyses (analysis’s?? Analysises?? I don’t know)

(̶I̶n̶s̶e̶r̶t̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶m̶e̶l̶e̶s̶s̶ ̶s̶e̶l̶f̶-̶p̶r̶o̶m̶o̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶h̶e̶r̶e̶)̶ If you like what you see, click here to see other things I’ve written. I analyzed why Yarbs is essentially the same player whether he’s starting or bulking; discussed the players involved in the Willy Adames trade and how things could play out; wrote about what the Rays might see when they signed Adam Conley to a minor league deal and how he could be an important pitcher out of the bullpen down the road; analyzed why Brandon Lowe is very, very good (written and posted before he really started taking off); did a deep-dive on the team’s catching situation and why Zunino is one of the best catchers in the league (written and posted long before his ASG selection and his big HR in that game); and looked at why Mike Ford might be a valuable contributor for the Rays at some point this season (with some fun info about Rays legend Dan Johnson and his career as a knuckleballer).

TL;DR (I’ll be keeping these at the beginning just in case you’re not in the mood to read words and look at numbers)

Despite some stats suggesting Wander Franco isn’t ready for MLB competition, underlying metrics and developmental psychology show that the major league level is the perfect place for him to finish his development.

Vidal Brujan is going to be an impactful player no matter where he plays on the field because fast don’t lie.

I’ve been a huge Taylor Walls truther ever since he was drafted out of FSU, so I’m very happy to say that I think he is the best defensive SS in the league, and maybe even the best defender in the league overall (Yes, the entire league – I know it seems like a hot-take, but I can back it up).

All three of these players are going to be All-Stars for years to come. Also, a former Rays two-way legend makes a cameo at the end because he shares the same first name as a current member of the team and because I enjoy looking at weird and specific statistics 😎.

If the TL;DR Wasn’t Satisfying Enough (or if you’re a nerd), Start Here

First, we’ll take a look at Franco’s output so far at the major league level and why he’s right where he needs to be. Next, we’ll look at the newest Ray of the three, Brujan and what he will bring to the table. And last but not least, we’ll see why Walls is so valuable and why I personally think he should win a gold glove AND Rookie of the Year (ROTY) this season.

Anyways, Here’s Wander(wall) 🎶 🎶 🎶

Just like many people have probably already made that joke I used for that heading, I’m here to echo what others have been saying about Franco’s performance in the majors so far: he’s doing well, but we are seeing some of the growing pains of adjusting to high-level competition.

Franco currently has a wRC+ of 66 (this is a norm-referenced metric in which the league average is 100), so we can see his bat has been sub par. However, he has been getting a few somewhat-timely hits, and has therefore accumulated a rWAR of 0.3 during his time in the majors so far. Over the course of a full 162 game season, Franco’s rWAR at his current pace would be 3.2 – which suggests he’s been an above-average starting player, but not an all-star. Looking at his wRC+ and rWAR in combination with his current OPS of .585 (league average is .718), we can see how Franco has been a slightly below-average player so far with the Rays.

Is the sky falling and should Neader ship him off now before he loses all his value? If you listen to the people in Topper’s replies every time he tweets about a Franco strikeout, then yes; he needs to be traded or DFAed immediately. Thankfully, a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶u̶s̶ most of us are pretty reasonable people, so we’ll look into the “Why” and where Franco will go from here.

The Good:

• Franco isn’t getting fooled by breaking and offspeed stuff too much; .256 xBA against these types of pitches
• He’s in the 89th percentile in all of MLB for his sprint speed; speed can’t slump the way bats and gloves can
• His outside of zone swing percentage is 24.7% (for context, high OBP guys like Joey Gallo and Mark Canha are at 23.2% and 23.3% respectively – generally players with lower outside of zone swing percentages will be the more patient hitters)
• He has the same amount of walks as strikeouts against LHP so far this season at two each; he’s always been better against LHP during his time in the minors (.806 OPS vs. RHP, 1.005 OPS vs. LHP), but he’s still very good against RHP
• Wander currently has a 13% solid contact percentage (meaning 13% of the balls he hits are squared-up; he’s not on top of or underneath the ball too much); if he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he would be in the same territory as guys like Nick Castellanos (12.8%), J.D. Martinez (13.1%), and old friend Tommy Pham (10.9%). For even more context, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are at 8.5% and 9.8% respectively 👀

The Learning-Curve:

• Franco has an xBA of .187 against fastballs so far; he’s still adjusting to major league velocity, but he’ll get there soon because he has some of the fastest hands in all of baseball (there isn’t any publicly available data to support this, but scouts have raved about his quick, strong hands and wrists – also his bat speed definitely passes the eye-test)
• Career worst BB/K rate of 0.33; his BB/K rate in the minors was 1.31, so we should see him move more towards that as he settles in – the 0.33 is a massive outlier and is unsustainable based on his track record of phenomenal plate disciple (see outside of zone swing percentage above; also has a career BB% of 9.85% and a career K% of 8.25% in MiLB)
• He currently has a BABIP of .227(!); this will not continue based on how much quality contact he makes (see solid contact percentage above) and the fact that his career BABIP in the minors was .334 (nearly a .100 difference than what he has now)
• Wander is still developing at 3B – he has zero DRS so far and has committed 2 errors in 36 innings versus 2 errors in 95 innings at SS; he has a very strong arm so he should develop into an average to slightly above-average defender at 3B as he gets more reps

Franco is going to be fine. He’s shown flashes of his potential with his recent eight-game hitting streak and his strong understanding of the strike zone (better than some of the umpires). Interestingly, Franco has shown he’s learning not just from game to game, but he’s learning DURING the games too. Below is his OPS this season at the major league level each time he faces a starting pitcher during a game:

Time Facing SP in Game	OPS	Plate Appearances
1st	.277	15
2nd	.333	15
3rd	1.455 🔥 🔥 🔥	11

This evidence, despite the somewhat-small sample size, suggests that Franco is able to learn on the fly and make the necessary adjustments. He just needs to continue to get reps at this level because he has already proven AAA isn’t a challenge for him.

Putting on my educator hat for a moment, there’s something in developmental psychology called the Zone of Proximal Developmemt (ZPD) that I’ll give you a Sparknotes-style explanation for and how it relates to Franco. Coined by psychologist Lev Vygotsky in 1978, the ZPD outlines the optimal conditions for which a learner can develop; if something is too easy, the learner will not develop because they’re not being challenged, and if something is too difficult, the learner will not develop because they’re being challenged too much.

The ZPD is essentially a sweet-spot or “Goldilocks Zone” for cognitive and psychological development where the learner is challenged a little bit, but is able to find success with some support (also known as scaffolding, but I won’t get into all that because this is supposed to be more about baseball than being a teacher).

While this theory is primarily used in reference to adolescents, I believe it applies to young, inexperienced athletes as well. Every player has some sort of ceiling (although that ceiling can be raised – I definitely recommend reading Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik’s The MVP Machine) in regards to their physical limitations. Athletes need to marinate in their own personal ZPDs in order to grow and develop to reach their full potential. Coaches work with players to help them navigate their way through their development by guiding them in learning and giving them opportunities to practice their skills against competition that isn’t too easy or too hard. This is why we see baseball players move at differing rates through the minor leagues – some might skip a level and others might hang around a level for a while.

Franco, like Brujan and Walls, has reached a point in his development where his ZPD is at the major league level. He may not be ready to be an every-day player yet, but I believe he’ll be unbenchable by September. It’s important for the coaching staff to continue putting him in the line-up and provide feedback to help guide him to success. It’s also important for him to sit on the bench every once in a while to reflect because he will need opportunities to ask questions and step-back to watch how other more established players carry themselves.

I believe Brujan and Walls are further along in their development than Franco, but that’s only because he’s younger and has more room to grow. As much as I’d love to sit here and tell everyone exactly what they want to hear about Franco being the best prospect ever, I’m not going to cherry-pick stats (however I will often look to specific metrics to help understand the “why”), make excuses for him, or fangirl over him just because of his scouting reports. He needs to go out there and grind everyday to earn his success. It’s totally fine that Franco’s struggling; he’s supposed to struggle – that’s how humans grow (even if he does have some superhuman abilities). To wrap-up this section, I think it will be an exciting second half of the season as we continue to watch him develop and evolve into the elite player he’s capable of becoming.

You Don’t Mess with the Brujan 💪 💪 💪

Vidal Brujan reminds me a lot of one of my favorite football players, Cadillac Williams. They share a combination of blazing speed and impressive lateral quickness while somehow making it look effortless on the field. Brujan uses his 70 grade speed (graded on a scale of 20 to 80) to impact games in a variety of ways. Need him to play at 2B and use his quickness to get to a ground ball? Done. Need him to patrol any of the three outfield positions and snag fly balls and liners? Easy. Need him to create chaos on the basepaths by gaining an extra 90 feet on any ball that makes it through the infield? He’s made for that; and let’s not forget he’s a stolen base threat every time he gets on. In fact, Brujan has swiped 166 bases in just 448 games in the minors – that works out to roughly 60 stolen bases per 162 games 👀. Obviously the players at the major league level are better at controlling the run game than their minor league affiliates, but stealing bases is a craft that can be developed and refined. We can expect Brujan to continue to sharpen that skill as he gets more playing time.

His speed, quickness, and decent arm (55 grade) will allow him to serve as an above average defender at 2B, and a slightly-above-average to average defender anywhere in the outfield. On top of his defensive versatility and speed, Brujan is also a switch-hitter with fantastic bat-to-ball skills like Franco. Brujan doesn’t have the same power as Franco, but he doesn’t necessarily need to be a power threat when he can use his wheels to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

We really don’t have a large enough sample size from Brujan at the major league level to say anything of substance about his performance with the Rays so far, so we’ll take a look at some of his minor league numbers. Brujan owns a career .797 OPS from his time in the minors. This might not seem all that impressive considering the major league average this season for OPS is .718, but remember, his speed makes up for what he lacks in power so we can expect him to continue to get on base at a decent rate while making line-drive contact. Brujan has had pretty solid plate discipline throughout his career – 212 walks versus 231 strikeouts – and that should translate well to the majors too as he finds his footing in the middle of this season.

Something interesting about Brujan that stands-out about his numbers this season with Durham is that he has found his power swing. His ISO (stat that measures saw power through extra-base hits) has exploded to .212 after averaging .116 coming into this season with a fly ball to HR rate of 15% (for context, Willy Adames has an ISO of .216 this season and a fly ball to HR rate of 17.3% – so we can see that Brujan was flexing his muscles a little bit in AAA). We can expect this trend to slow down a bit at the major league level, but once Brujan adjusts to the better pitching, it’s fair to say that he might be good for roughly 15 home runs each season after this current one as he continues to grow. Lastly, he’s the first Ray at the major league level to be named Vidal since 2018 when Tampa Bay Rays two-way legend Vidal Nuño 👀 graced the field with his presence (see more on him at the bottom).

Anyways, Here’s (Wonder)Walls 🎶 🎶 🎶

Get it? It’s the same joke from earlier but not as good. I’ve been a Taylor Walls stan literally since the day he was drafted. He does a little bit of everything with his 50 grade hit tool, 55 speed, 55 arm, 45 power, and a beautiful 65 glove that honestly looks like it should be in the 70-80 range based on what we’ve seen at the major league level. Walls quickly climbed and catapulted his way through the minors – playing in just 276 games before making his MLB debut this season. We have a fantastic portion of a sample size to work with for Walls at the major league level, so we won’t rely as heavily on his numbers in the minors like we did with Franco and Brujan.

If you’re new to Rays baseball, then the number one thing you need to know about Walls is his defense is fantastic. In the TL;DR I said Walls is the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball and I said/typed it with my CHEST. He is currently tied for second among all shortstops with 9 defensive runs saved (DRS). How is he the best defensive SS if he’s tied for second? Look at this list:

Player	Innings Played at SS	DRS	DRS/100 Innings
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	781.2	10	1.280
J.P. Crawford	779.2	9	1.157
Taylor Walls	255.1	9	3.528 🔥 🔥 🔥
Brandon Crawford	636.1	6	0.943
Miguel Rojas	554.1	5	0.902
Willy Adames	739.0	5	0.677

Walls is tied for second in DRS among all SS with playing in 60% fewer innings than the leader. Is this pace sustainable? Possibly; Javier Baez had 2.777 DRS per 100 innings in 2019 and earlier than that in 2017, Andrelton Simmons had a wild season in which he amassed 41 DRS and a whopping 2.994 DRS per 100 innings. It’s likely Walls will cool off, but not by much. We’ve seen him make two errors so far in his time with the Rays so it shows us that Walls does have some room to improve. However, it’s still worth noting that there are just so many ways we can evaluate a player’s defensive ability than just looking at errors now, so it makes errors somewhat of an archaic statistic. There’s also a negative mindset surrounding errors. First of all, how would you like it if someone came to your job and only kept track of times you messed-up and made mistakes even though you were trying to do the right thing? Furthermore, mistakes are part of the learning process, so if we want to see these young guys excel, we have to live with some of the mistakes, and we need to approach errors with patience (I’m certain the coaching staff does a terrific job cultivating an environment that encourages growth and learning from mistakes given their track record of getting the most out of their players).

As I get off my soapbox, the main takeaway here is that Walls makes things look easy out there and is clearly performing like the best defensive SS in the game right now. Literally the only thing that might stop him from winning a gold glove this season is if he doesn’t play enough innings to qualify.

So where does he rank among ALL defensive players? This is where it gets even more impressive. Here is another table (similar to the one above) to show how Walls stacks-up against the major league leaders in DRS:

Player (Position)	Innings Played	DRS	DRS/100 Innings
Jacob Stallings (C)	510.0	12	2.353
Enrique Hernandez (CF)	490.0	12	2.449
Joshua Fuentes (3B)	413.1	11	2.663 👀
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS)	781.2	10	1.280
Michael A. Taylor (CF)	658.2	9	1.367
Taylor Walls (SS)	255.1	9	3.528 🔥 🔥 🔥

Walls is in some pretty elite company in this leaderboard, so it’s significant to see him with a high number of DRS with over 150 fewer innings played than the next lowest player on the list. I think it’s likely that Walls can keep up this pace given his track record and the fact that he’ll continue to build chemistry and understanding with his fellow infielders. Before we move on to his bat, I need to clarify that I’m relying mainly on DRS here because Walls hasn’t played in enough innings to get a good read on his outs above average, so we’ll definitely keep an eye on that stat during the second half of this season.

While most of his current value is in his glove, Walls has actually performed fairly well with his bat thanks to his batted ball profile. He has always been a line-drive hitter, so his 24.6% line drive percentage makes sense and falls in line with his past performance in the minors.

Things start to deviate from his career averages when we look at where he’s hitting the ball. Walls is pulling 37.3% of balls put in play, 31.3% are going up the middle, and 31.3% are going to the opposite field. This balanced, hit-the-ball-hard-to-all-fields approach has allowed Walls to accumulate a 101 wRC+ this season (literally a tick above average). His approach has also resulted in a BABIP of .338 which is a little higher than average (the average BABIP season to season can be around .300 depending on how much Manfred alters the ball in the offseason), so I usually would say that it’s unsustainable, BUT past performance with BABIP can tell us a lot about how likely Walls is to keep that up. His career BABIP in the minors is .351, so he has the track record of performing above average in this metric. We can expect that to continue (not necessarily to .351 but to some extent – I think maybe in the .340s because some MLB teams defend better than teams in the minors) because Walls has that line-drives-and-hard-hit-balls-to-all-fields approach.

It’s safe to say that he will continue this season as an above average to average bat with league leading defensive skills. Also worth mentioning is that Walls’s BB% is 13.2% at the majors and has never posted anything lower than double-digits each season in the minors, so we can expect him to continue to work good at-bats (something that will only help him develop as a hitter as he gains experience). Additionally, Walls is in the 91st percentile for sprint speed. This helps him leg-out infield hits, take an extra base on balls hit to the gap, swipe a few bases (he stole 31 in 120 games at the single A level in 2018 👀), and move quickly to make defensive stops. So Walls is a great defender with a serviceable bat, how does that make him Rookie of the Year?

First of all, “great” is an understatement when talking about Walls’s defense; using the words “elite” or “Adrian Beltre-esque” (all-time leader in career DRS with 200) would be more appropriate. And second of all, Baseball Reference really values Walls and what he brings; it’s evident in how they calculate WAR. bWAR (also called rWAR – either one is fine because they both refer to Baseball Reference) is a metric you’ve probably heard of that is used to determine the overall value a player has over a potential replacement player. Walls has accumulated 1.5 bWAR in just 33 games this season. Over the course of 162 games, he would have 7.4 bWAR 🔥. This is really, really good. Especially considering he still has plenty of room to grow with his bat. For context, Mike Trout is someone who averages 9.5 bWAR per 162 games. Furthermore, the average bWAR for MVPs from 2015 through 2019 (excluding the shortened 2020 season) is 8.47.

Walls is currently performing at an all-star level. I’m not saying he’s going to win AL MVP this season (maybe next season though 👀), but he’s certainly in the running for ROTY. The average bWAR for every ROTY from 2015 through 2019 (again, excluding 2020 for the short season) is 4.97. If Walls plays in 70 of the remaining 72 games on the schedule at his current output, he will end up with a bWAR of roughly 4.7. Adolis Garcia of the Rangers (currently on pace for 5.13 bWAR) might be the main competitor for ROTY, but he has cooled off a little after a very strong first two months of the season. Walls still has plenty of time to improve with his bat, and like we talked about earlier, his defensive output should remain consistent and carry his value through the end of the season. Randy Arozarena (yes, he’s still technically a rookie) should also get some consideration for ROTY (currently on pace for a bWAR of 3.38). He has played solid defense (5 DRS in 537.2 innings in the outfield this season), but we’re mainly waiting for his bat to get hot; he only has a 107 wRC+ this season. Anyways, Walls’s path to a ROTY award is clear if he can produce just a little more at the plate (and we know he’s capable of doing that given his track record).

To wrap everything up and put a pretty bow on it: Wander will be fine. He just needs to play most days because he was not being challenged enough at the AAA level to grow, and he’s doing a lot of things well to suggest that he’s close to turning a corner in addition to his track record of being better at the things he’s currently struggling with. Brujan is going to be an exciting player during the second half of this season and he will use his wheels to impact every single game he plays in. Walls is arguably the best defensive player in all of baseball, and he’s on his way to win AL ROTY. It’s also interesting how all of these infielders are fairly balanced switch-hitters with great bat speed. I couldn’t be more excited to watch these three guys (and the rest of the team) play hard during the second half.

Vidal Nuño: The Greatest Two-Way Ray To Ever Play

Vidal Nuño walked so Brendan McKay could fly.

Shohei Ohtani always dreamed of being half the player Vidal Nuño was.

Babe Ruth? Never heard of her.

Vidal Nuño was a 48th round pick in the 2009 draft by Cleveland who eventually reached the majors with the New York Yankees in 2013. Nicknamed “Sleepy,” Nuño played in seven different MLB organizations with his arguably best season coming in 2018 with the Rays. He played in 17 games that season pitching 33 innings with 10 walks, 29 strikeouts, and a respectable 1.64 ERA (however his xFIP of 4.85 suggests he was more lucky than good). But of course, this man is a two-way legend, so we need to talk about his bat.

Nuño had just two at-bats during his time with the Rays. Both of those at-bats came in a 16-innings marathon against the Marlins in which the Rays pulled out a 9-6 win. Guess who drove in the game-winning run AND pitched two scoreless innings? That’s right – Vidal “Sleepy” Nuño. He went 2-2 (OPS of 2.000 and a wRC+ of 487🔥) with two singles and was thrown out trying to stretch one of those into a double. Nuño also struck-out two batters across the 14th and 15th innings. His performance in that game earned him a 0.1 bWAR. Extrapolated for the rest of that season, Nuño would have a 16.2 bWAR – Mike Trout is literally shaking 🤯.

Other notable contributions in that game: Trevor Richards started the game for the Marlins, Nathan Eovaldi pinch ran for Nuño in the 16th after he drove in the game winning RBI with a single, Adam Conley (someone I’m very high on who’s currently with Durham – I wrote about him a while ago) pitched a scoreless inning with two strikeouts, and Jesus Sucre pitched to get the first out in the bottom of the 16th before giving way to Jose Alvarado to get final two outs and the save. Below are the box scores for that really fun game:

Thank you for making it this far! I appreciate you taking the time to read this and I think my next major piece will center around Randy Arozarena (can’t promise anything though because sometimes another stat or player will catch my eye and lead me down a rabbit hole); he’s had a very interesting season after one of the greatest postseason performances ever in 2020.