Bucs Steamroll Panthers, Look to Clinch Playoffs vs Saints

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took on the Carolina Panthers at home this Sunday and completed their season sweep of the ever-rebuilding division rivals. It was a statistically impressive day, with the Bucs winning in the fashion they should have in Carolina in November.

With the 48-14 victory—their fourth game of the year eclipsing 40 points, just one behind the league leading Lions—the Bucs once again position themselves for the playoffs. 

Key Performances

Baker Mayfield carried a perfect passer rating through halftime, and finished with a 153.0, due to his phenomenal 27/32 359 yard 5 touchdown day. He was only sacked twice for a 10 yard total, and rushed once for 2 yards. Baker once again kept the offense moving at an impressive rate, just punting once and putting up over 550 yards of total offense.

Mike Evans positions himself to cross the 1000 yard mark next week, after putting up 97 yards and 2 touchdowns. He just needs 100 yards to tie Jerry Rice’s record 11 straight 1000 yard seasons. One difference is that Evans has done it in the first ten seasons of his career, while Rice only had 927 his first year. The other difference of course, is that Rice had another 3 years with 1000 yards, 14 total over his 19 year career. 

Evans also passed Tim Brown and Don Hutson on the total touchdown leaderboard, putting himself squarely in 21st all-time. M1K3 looks to continue his Tour de Force of the NFC South this season against the New Orleans Aints.

While he hasn’t managed too many impressive stat lines against them in his career, they did trade his adopted son, Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders in the middle of the season. With Mayfield’s public comments regarding the yardage record, expect a heavy dose of Evans on Sunday.

Is it safe to say that Jalen McMillan has arrived? The rookie wideout brought in all 5 of his targets for 51 yards, and accounted for 2 of their 5 offensive touchdowns. McMillan has 6 of his 7 touchdowns in the last 4 weeks, and nearly 63% of his yards on the season have come in that span.

“Knuck if you Buck”y Irving put up 113 yards on 20 carries, and added an additional 77 receiving yards on 4 catches in a dominating performance. Irving had over 180 total yards in both games against Carolina this season. He also officially became the first Buccaneer since Doug Martin with 1000 rushing yards in a season.

This game proved Liam Coen’s willingness to ride the hot hand, as Irving managed more carries than Rachaad White and Sean Tucker combined, though all three averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry.

Expect a more diverse approach this week, especially if things go their way early. Recall that Sean Tucker recorded nearly 200 total yards against the Aints defense. 

A Look Back To Week 8:

The Bucs will face the bitter rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday to finish the regular season. The Saints have had quite the rollercoaster season, starting with two massive victories over the Panthers and Cowboys before losing seven straight, including a 51-27 blowout win against the Bucs in Week 8 where all of their points came in the second quarter, and Baker Mayfield threw three interceptions.

In that Week 8 game, the Bucs were without Rachaad White, and the Bucs still managed to run for 277 yards as a team. Bucky Irving had 14 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown, while Sean Tucker carried the load with 14 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown.

The Saints have given up at least 180 yards rushing twice since that game, and boast one of the bottom defenses in the league by yardage. They are bottom-8 in passing yards and rushing yards, and bottom-6 in rushing touchdowns as well. 

Another variable to consider: Mike Evans left the earlier game against New Orleans with a hamstring injury, which he would severely aggravate against the Ravens, and missed the final three games before the bye week. 

The Bucs were again without Cade Otton and Antoine Winfield Jr., their 2nd and 7th missed games in a row, respectively. Payne Durham picked up the majority of the Tight End work, with Ko Kieft and Devin Culp each seeing 20 snaps. Ko Kieft maintained his usual special teams share as well. Zyon McCollum and Jordan Whitehead played every defensive snap of the game, with Whitehead playing the Winfield role. Tykee Smith also played a significant portion of snaps as both a nickel corner and safety, while Mike Edwards functioned as the free safety. 

It’s been interesting to watch the Bucs defensive scheme shift as they’ve dealt with severe injuries across the board, especially among their defensive backs. With Antoine Winfield, Jamel Dean, Bryce Hall, and Jordan Whitehead, SirVocea Dennis, and Calijah Kancey all missing significant time, it’s not ridiculous to think it may be part of the issue defensively.

The Saints injury struggles have been just about as bad as it gets in the NFL this year. Khalen Saunders, Demario Davis, Cesar Ruiz, Rashid Shaheed, Marshon Lattimore (pre-trade), Kool-Aid McKinstry, Erik McCoy, Lucas Patrick, D’Marco Jackson, Nick Saldiveri, and Taysom Hill’s seasons all being effectively over. While Derek Carr will most likely remain out for Week 18, there is a chance Alvin Kamara returns to chase his very first 1000 yard season.

QB Spencer Rattler, the presumptive Week 18 starter for the Saints, is 0-5 as a starter. His statline against the Bucs earlier in the year was… less than ideal. 22/40 (55.0%), for 243 yards (season high), 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. He is coming off of a fairly similar stat line against the Raiders, where they lost 25-10.

Their backfield trio of Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combined for fewer yards on their 10 carries than Rattler had on his 3 scrambles (46 yards). He also had 28 of their 67 rushing yards in an abysmal 34-0 loss to the Packers. To put it simply, the situation in the Big Easy is, well… Parade season starts on the 6th at least, right?

What To Watch For in Week 18

While Tampa has surrendered the fourth-most points in the first halves of games this year, the easiest defense of Todd Bowles is that the Bucs have the second-best second half scoring defense in the league, surrendering just over 8 points per second half this season – and just 16 points over their last 5 games. While the defense may be digging first half holes, they are at least putting down the shovel after halftime.

The Bucs have played three straight games without surrendering more than 39 yards rushing, and 4 out of the last 6 games, they have given up less than 200 yards in the air.

While the defense has not been perfect this year, they have consistently shown signs of improvement especially as they’ve gotten healthier, and they look to continue their growth pattern against the injury-stricken Saints.

Before their bye week, the Bucs’ offense struggled, failing to surpass 300 total yards against the Chiefs and 49ers. However, they have since turned things around with six straight games of at least 400 total yards, including two 500-yard performances in the past three weeks. The team has also been red hot on the ground, logging at least 150 rushing yards in five of their last six games and seven times overall this season.

Since the overtime victory in Carolina, Mayfield has averaged over 311 passing yards per game and 3.5 touchdowns per game. 

Meanwhile, the Saints have given up over 150 yards rushing in each of their last 2 games, and while they only surrendered 400 total yards once in the month of December, they also had a point differential of -54 during that same stretch. On the season they have the 3rd worst defense by total yards as well as by rushing yards. 

The Saints’ offense has struggled throughout December, with their Dec 1st loss to the Rams standing as their only game surpassing 100 rushing yards and 300 total yards. Over this five-game stretch, they failed to score more than 20 points and turned the ball over six times in their last four games.

Rattler has also faltered, posting passer ratings in the 50s in his last two starts, along with a 1-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a lost fumble. In those games, he completed 35 of 66 passes for 371 yards, averaging just 185.5 yards per game.

Playoff Picture

While the Bucs beat the brakes off the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons struggled on Sunday Night Football against the Commanders, eventually losing in overtime on a Zach Ertz receiving touchdown. While the Michael Penix Jr. led squad jumped out to a quick lead, Jayden Daniels battled back with the most rushing yards of any quarterback of the last 2 years, and breaking RGIII’s rushing record.

With that loss and the Bucs victory, the Falcons once again ceded control of the NFC South to the Bucs. With sole possession of first place, the Bucs only need a victory on Sunday to clinch their 5th playoff appearance in a row and their 4th division title in a row.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers open as 13.5 point favorites over the Saints, and it would not be unfair to expect a large victory from the Bucs to close the regular season. While they’ve suffered their share of injuries and losses, they’ve managed to make it this far this season when pundits gave the division to the Falcons before a down was played, and they’ve given us something to root for these last 18 weeks.

I predict a 40-13 victory with the Bucs rolling into the first round of the playoffs.