Date: Saturday July 13, 2024

Kickoff Time: 7:30 pm EST at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg, FL

Records: Tampa Bay Rowdies (29 pts 8W-5D-4L); Orange County SC (24 pts 7W-3D-8L)

Standings: The Rowdies are 4th in the East and Orange County are seventh in the West.     

The Rowdies finally head back to Tampa Bay after a long stint of road games. Fans who are sick of seeing tepid performances will be hoping that a return to familiar surroundings will do the team some good and help them feel more comfortable. On the other side of things, a club with a very impactful history at Al Lang Stadium is coming to town looking to put themselves in better stead as well. Get to St. Pete this weekend to cheer on the Green and Gold against Orange County!

Are these results a larger problem than we think?

If the Rowdies’ fans are used to feasting, the last few weeks have been closer to famine. Despite two important wins against conference leaders within two weeks, the game in between and the three following have been very different. Swatting aside Sacramento and Louisville City were the outliers, it turns out, as even the subsequent win over Hartford was a toenail away from turning into another loss. 

The match last weekend was at least better in terms of offense. Tampa Bay took 21 shots and created four Big Chances, according to FotMob. Ultimately, it was just a very strong defensive performance from the opposition that limited the Rowdies, as they could only manage 47% accuracy for long balls and 38% accuracy for crosses. Detroit’s reputation was more accurate.

Their defensive strength was on full display, preventing many promising plays from developing into legitimate chances. The Rowdies were unable to build up in the patterns that they would most like to: creating number advantages down the wings and then firing the ball back into the middle as more defenders come to shut them down. 

Detroit City were able to insert themselves in the middle of most of those passing sequences, ultimately limiting Tampa Bay’s best chances to forced turnovers. If the Rowdies are unable to draw a team out of a more defensive posture, fans have seen many matches turn sideways. Despite a red card to Abdoulaye Diop in the second half, this was nearly another such case. 

The sending off, of course, would not really alter the home team’s game plan. Continue to keep numbers deep and aggressively shut down anyone in Green and Gold (white in this game) who has the audacity to lift their head and look for options. If they could keep the score even, there would always be some type of chance at the other end. 

Detroit performed this admirably and the home players will be more than miffed their tactics didn’t turn into three points. Despite the higher levels of intensity and quicker passing, the visitors could not do much with the ball. Taking advantage of a set piece was positive; but, it was also quite lucky for Tampa Bay, especially considering the timing of the equalizing goal. 

Getting a point out of this game at least was important, in particular because it limited Detroit City to a point as well. There isn’t much distance between the two clubs in the standings. But, they were able to expose a number of weaknesses against Tampa Bay, including set piece defense. Whether or not these are bigger problems will become clearer with more matches at home. 

Is this a potential revenge game for 2021?

The Rowdies have played Orange County three times in the clubs’ shared history. Last season there was a 1-1 draw away in Southern California. The year before, Tampa Bay hosted and won this fixture 3-1. Of course, that was a mirror image of the game that also played out at Al Lang roughly a year beforehand, when OC won the USL Championship Final by that same score. 

It’s hard to understate how devastating that match was. The Rowdies were a force in 2021. There was almost no question in some fans’ minds as to who would win. Some people (surely no columnists you’ve read) went so far as to buy shirts commemorating the event before Tampa Bay had won anything. “You’ve got to have confidence going in,” went some people’s thinking… 

Orange County etched themselves into the folklore of this club that day. Any game against them afterwards, regardless of setting or importance, takes on an extra dimension because of it. There aren’t even that many players in Green and Gold that night who will be there this weekend. Those that were, though, will surely be playing with a chip on their shoulder. 

This brings us to the game at hand. The Rowdies are coming off a rough couple of weeks, going to unforgiving turf fields of ever changing length and width. Playing at home will be what players and fans alike hope is a shot in the arm. Tampa Bay can use the width of their pitch and the heat they’re used to when trying to tire out their opposition. 

Orange County on the other hand have just beat divisional rivals Memphis 4-1. (Why they are in the same division is a topic for another day.) Their last win before that was four weeks ago away to Indy Eleven. It should be noted that Indy were on a 12-game unbeaten run, which included ten wins in a row ahead of that match. Predicting which OC will show up is very difficult. 

As noted on the Orange and Black Soccercast, this is in part due to the injury situation at the club. The roster they’ve had available to choose from is extremely inconsistent. It’s hard for players to develop an understanding of each other in these stretches. When your defensive partner changes every week, you might forget which things to look out for in key moments. 

The Rowdies have every reason to look at this weekend as the perfect opportunity. Issues have popped up lately. Results have been poor. Form is not the easiest thing to conjure out of nowhere. (Just ask all the national teams taking part in the current Euro or Copa America. If you don’t have it, you may not get it back quickly.)

Now back in front of loyal fans crying out for a win, conditions are ripe for a potential romp. The aforementioned heat should be a factor, especially if the Rowdies can get OC chasing shadows without the ball. Put the team on the ropes early and make sure you convert some of those chances, assuming they carry over from the Detroit City game. Do all that, and they might move one step farther from that day in November 2021. 

Score Predictions from the RBLR Rowdies Podcast:

Carlos: 3-1 W

James: 2-0 W 

Yurika: 3-0 W