Date: Saturday October 26, 2024

Kickoff Time: 7:30 pm EST at IMG Academy Soccer Stadium in Bradenton, FL

Records: Tampa Bay Rowdies (47 pts 13W-8D-12L); Indy Eleven (51 pts 14W-9D-10L)

Standings: The Rowdies are 6th in the East and Indy are 4th.

With a huge game on the line, the Rowdies turned in the type of performance fans have not seen for a while. After going down twice, they leveled both twice, taking the point in a game that secured a playoff spot for 2024. The postseason for this club is a given, though, as stated by players and coaches alike. The best thing for the team to do now is earn the best possible position for their playoff games. Get to IMG in Bradenton this Saturday to cheer them on!

Where has this fight been the last two months?

In a game that the Rowdies could not lose, they managed to avoid that fate despite going a goal behind on two occasions. Whether this was down to a new location or the desperate circumstances around the game, those outside of the lockerroom can’t say. However, it was a good sign for a club that has had a rough go of things recently.

Shuffled to the IMG Academy stadium after two hurricanes damaged their usual home of Al Lang Stadium, Tampa Bay started with a relatively similar lineup to that which they’ve used all season. Danny Crisostomo took over his starting role again. The only major change was leading scorer Manuel Arteaga on the bench, with the more roving Leo Fernandes used in his place.

Cal Jennings, then, moved up top as the striker in a rough 3-4-3 formation, perhaps a role he is more used to over his career. The Rowdies still looked shaky in the early stages, giving up a goal that was called back due to it being ruled offside. They ultimately did give up the lead when former USF Bull Marcus Epps put a shot past Jordan Farr and a field of bodies in front of him.

This situation in much of September and October would have been enough to end the game. In this case, though, it almost gave the home team new life. Tampa Bay started to attack a little more and gave Hartford some of their own medicine. After the away team had done so well attacking down the flanks, it was Fernandes’ turn to do the same.

While Hartford winger Michee Ngalina was the most dangerous player for his side, taking long balls from his back line down with ease and in stride, Leo proved another type of threat. His prowess has always been in guile on the ball, and his ability to maintain possession even under heavy pressure paid off.

When the team won a free kick, he stepped up to take it, first putting the ball straight into the wall. The rebound fell right to him at what he described post-game as a perfect height. He put his laces through it and Hartford’s keeper couldn’t save it. It was tied going into the half.

However, Hartford again broke with players down the wing, scoring with the last play of the first half. This is another position from which the Rowdies have often struggled to return recently. It was not to be on Wednesday, though. Jennings had been making runs in behind the opposition defense all night, mostly fruitless, unable to keep possession with so many defenders on him.

His hard work finally paid off. Whether off his head, his back, or as Cal suggested, off his bun, a flicked on cross found its way past Renan Ribeiro. It was again level. The Rowdies had mostly nullified the threats posed by Ngalina and Epps in the second half, so they ended up looking the more likely side to score. Unfortunately, they couldn’t capitalize further before full time.

Should we be satisfied with just a playoff spot?

Unbeknownst to the RBLR Rowdies crew, playoff spots in the event of a tie on points came down to head-to-head results. The goal differential would still be in Tampa Bay’s favor. But, that is actually completely unnecessary. Even if the Rowdies lose their last game of the season, they cannot drop behind Hartford if they win their own final match.

The result means, then, that the Green and Gold are going to be in the playoffs in 2024. While this is most certainly a positive, it should be noted the team likely cannot host a game in the post season. At best, they would have to travel to a top-four side, beat them, and hope that another team beneath them in the standings does the same. The Rowdies would then host if they met.

This isn’t impossible and unheralded clubs have certainly done well in the past. (It was pointed out in the post-game press conference that Phoenix did the same when they won the USL Championship Final last year.) It does make things more difficult, of course – and the Rowdies aren’t out of the woods because they were able to draw Hartford, either.

Fans are used to this team being in the playoffs and doing well in the postseason. There has certainly been a lot of turmoil off the pitch for Tampa Bay, far beyond the soccer club. The fact that this game and the one to come vs. Indy will be played in Bradenton speak to that. If they win, the Rowdies are likely to travel to Indianapolis the following weekend.

Within this context, it doesn’t seem so bad. Indy play a fair bit like the Rowdies do, relying on wingbacks to help drive the play forward. Their left wingback in particular will do this, as Aedan Stanley leads the team with assists. Former Rowdie Jack Blake co-leads the team with ten goals, level with Augie Williams for that metric.

Tampa Bay should know how to handle this team. They did so back in July, when the Green and Gold took all three points off the Eleven away from Florida. The Rowdies created four Big Chances that day, getting nine of their 18 total shots on target, according to FotMob. Just do that again, the fans scream! Why is that so hard?!

However, form is immutable in this situation. Indy have lost one game since the end of August. While their opponents have not all been so sterling in that time, Tampa Bay has dropped more points than they should, including against so-called lesser opposition. It’s the reason the Rowdies can’t get a top-four playoff spot in the first place.

With everything that’s gone on, fans should look at the positive side of things. In a must-not-lose game, Tampa Bay did not lose. If they can win at “home” this weekend, they have a good chance of beating their first round opponent in the playoffs – because they will have done so twice already. Anyone who follows the USL knows the chaos of November; just give yourself the best chance to rise above it.

Score Predictions from the RBLR Rowdies Podcast:

Carlos: 1-0 W
James: 2-1 L
Yurika: 1-1 D