Buccaneers Sail Past Chargers 40-17, Dallas Up Next

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveled to the City of Angels on Sunday to complete their circuit of the AFC West, facing Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Despite being 3-point underdogs, Baker and the Gang managed to drop 40 against the best scoring defensive unit in the league while managing to keep the punt team off the field.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers were held to just 17 points, all of which came in the first half. Lavonte David and Logan Hall combined for 3 sacks, 5 pressures and two tackles for loss, with Jamel Dean providing a late interception. 

In the much-needed victory, the Bucs have made a statement: We’re here to do more than make noise. 

So what changed?

For one, the Buccaneers have leaned into the run game in major fashion. They have eclipsed 150 team rushing yards in each of the last 4 games, and cleared 200 yards in three of those. Last season, they did not have 150 rushing yards in a single game. They have hit at least 445 yards of total offense in the last 4 games, while only managing three of those games last season including the two playoff games.

They have also scored an average of 31 points per game, up from the 28 points per game in their previous matchups this season. To be fair, three of these games have come against bottom-of-the-barrel defenses, but the Chargers have given up the fewest points per game in the whole league.

Why the huge changes? Well to be frank the run game stank to high heaven last year. As much as Rachaad White contributes to the passing game both as a receiver and as a blocker, he was not particularly good last year and neither was the offensive line from a run blocking perspective.

They ran almost exclusively zone runs under Dave Canales which place the result of the play almost squarely on the running back. Unfortunately it seems that White’s primary weakness is his field vision, as he averages less than three yards per carry in zone runs whereas the Buck and Tuck combo each see more than 4.5 yards per carry in zone run schemes.

This season however, Coen had mixed in a healthy amount of gap runs where the “hole” is predetermined by design. On gap runs this year, Irving averages over 5 yards per carry, White reaches 6 yards per carry, and Tucker boasts an impressive 15 carries for 159 yards on the season.

This is not to say that Canales was scheming “wrong” per se, but Coen has a significantly better offensive line to work with. The additions of LG Ben Bredeson and C Graham Barton have done wonders for the run game, RG Cody Mauch has shown massive improvements year-over-year. Tristan Wirfs has suffered no fall off after transitioning to Left Tackle last season, and Luke Goedeke has been an elite Right Tackle this season after the team experimented with him at Guard last year.

These points are not just conjecture. Per Brett Kollman on Bluesky, headed into Sundays game the tackles duo of Wirfs and Goedeke have surrendered a pressure rate of 7.8% on pure dropbacks (No RPOs, Play Actions, or Screens) and the entire offensive line scores a 97 out of 100 grade on a composite scale devised by Ben Baldwin (creator of the famous “4th Down Decision Bot”), which is second only to the Broncos.

Another key factor? Baker Mayfield’s legs. He has 266 rushing yards on the year, good for 12th in the league and he’s tied for 2nd least attempts for all QBs in the top 15. 266 is also a career high, his previous being 165 in 2020 and 163 just last year. As a matter of fact, per ESPN, two of his touchdowns this Sunday came while he was traveling at least 8 MPH on the ground.

The Todd Bowles-led defense showed massive strides of improvement in this game as well, and the signs pointed towards improvement off the bye week as well. They have not surrendered 300 yards of total offense since the bye week, while they allowed at least 350 total yards in all but three games before the bye week. They have not allowed more than 100 yards rushing in a game since playing the Chiefs, and only gave up 32 against the Chargers. Before the bye week they allowed 100 yards in a game all but 3 times as well. 

Key Player Performances:

Mike Evans had a phenomenal Sunday afternoon, with a 9 catch, 159 yard, 2 touchdown, return to form game. He scored from 35 and 57 yards out, with his 57 yard catch and run marking the longest play from scrimmage for them on the year.

This was the 23rd game in his career with multiple touchdowns putting him eighth all time, just one shy of Davante Adams in seventh who also had multiple touchdowns Sunday. His 159 yards leave him needing just 83.6 yards per game for the rest of the season to reach 1000 yards, which would be his 11th, putting him in sole possession of 2nd place behind Jerry Rice for the most 1000 yard seasons in NFL history. He also managed to slide past Jimmy Smith, Antonio Brown, and Brandon Marshall in all time receiving yards, to make him 24th, and he remains 9th all time in receiving touchdowns with 103, the most among active players.

Jalen McMillan continued his stellar month with 5 catches for 75 yards including a wide open touchdown on the opening drive. McMillan had just one touchdown catch in week 1, and was quiet until the Raiders game, where he posted a 4-59-2 line, giving him 3 touchdowns over the last 2 games. While he hasn’t necessarily met the lofty expectations the coaching staff had for him after a spectacular rookie camp, he has shown growth and helped fill the whole left by the absence of Chris Godwin, who was top 5 in the league in yards and touchdowns before he went down for the year.

Bucky Irving managed 117 yards on his 15 carries, while Rachaad White reached 64 yards on his 15 carries despite his early fumble. White also added 2 catches for 17 and a score, and Sean Tucker chewed 4th quarter clock, but was held to 17 yards on his 7 carries.

Baker Mayfield had an efficient 283 yards and 4 touchdowns, on just 22 completions out of 27 attempts. Baker made some risky throws and bad decisions in this game, but luckily threw just one interception. Baker also remained mobile, only getting sacked once and adding 25 yards on 2 scrambles. There were multiple 10+ yard carries that were called back for holding, including three in one drive in the third quarter. 

A Defense Worth Thinking About:

The depleted Bucs defense was surprisingly about as good as it has been all year this Sunday. Justin Herbert was consistently pressured, and held to less than 200 yards passing. The Chargers were also held to just 32 yards on 11 carries. The Bucs added the aforementioned sacks and interception and honestly played a complete game. 

Despite giving up a touchdown on the Chargers opening drive after a controversial pass interference call, a Mayfield interception flipping the field resulting in a second touchdown, & the White fumble led to a three-and-out, the Bucs’ D didn’t give up any ground in the second half. JJ Russell looked greatly improved, with the highest PFF grade of any defender on the field. Herbert hardly had time to challenge the depleted Bucs secondary, with his only memorable throw downfield resulting in the Dean interception.

A strong victory like this serves as a reminder to the NFC that the Bucs are a complete team (even if they don’t play like it for parts of the year) with a resume that includes victories over the current 1, 2, and 7 seeds, and a full game and a half lead over the Falcons for control of the NFC South. Sitting firmly in 3rd place in the conference, the Bucs are looking to make a deep run this season which did not seem possible just a few short weeks ago.

A Look Ahead:

With three remaining games the Bucs look to complete their sweep of the NFC East against the middling Cowboys, and complete their season sweeps against the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Aints. With such legendary quarterbacks as Cooper Rush, Bryce Young, and Spencer Rattler on the menu, one can only hope that the Bucs can build momentum as they look towards the playoffs. 

The Bucs face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football & open as 4.5 point favorites looking to extend their winning streak to five.

This season Dallas has surrendered the 7th most total yards, ironically just ahead of Tampa. They will be down Trevon Diggs, who has been a turnover machine in his career, and Micah Parsons has certainly had his struggles this season.

Dallas has surrendered nearly 2000 yards on the ground this season, good for fourth from the bottom, and 22 touchdowns which is league worst. They are in the bottom half of the league in the pass game, though I suspect they would be lower if teams actually needed to throw, as they have seen less than 300 pass attempts all year, sixth lowest in the league.

My Prediction:

Of course being a Bucs fan, I will temper my expectations, but feel confident! Dem Boys are nursing one of the worst rushing attacks in the league and have had to throw from behind just about every week. I expect a 41-20 victory with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White each having big days.