Bucs Lose Heartbreaker vs DAL, Hope To Rebound vs CAR

The Bucs traveled to Dallas on Sunday to face America’s Team and the results were more than a little disappointing. Expectations were high this week with the Buccaneers coming off a 40-17 win in LA, and with the Cowboys missing quite a few recognizable names, it seemed a fair certainty that the Bucs would board the team plane victorious and one step closer to a playoff run. Fans were instead once again disappointed on national television. 

The Bucs have lost six straight regular season primetime games dating back to last season, 3 of which went to overtime this season.

The defense fell back to what we’ve known all season: lackluster pass rush that doesn’t affect quarterbacks, which means not forcing turnovers, and allowing their weak zone to be picked apart. Cowboys’ QB Cooper Rush managed an impressive and efficient stat line, and while the Cowboys only scored two touchdowns, Brandon Aubrey managed 4 field goals, the shortest of which was 49 yards.

However, the defense wasn’t the only reason the Bucs lost Sunday. After holding the Cowboys to a 58-yard field goal on the opening drive, the Bucs opted to be extremely aggressive on just the first drive, deciding to go for it on 4th and 3. This decision would not have been a problem if Sterling Shepard didn’t have a case of the butterfingers. Cooper Rush managed to lead his unit a short 42 yards before a 10 yard toss to Jalen Tolbert to take a 10-0 lead.

The Bucs lost the tempo battle in the first half, managing just two touchdown drives in the first half, and no field goals. The other three drives ended without a score. Conversely, the Cowboys started hot, managing five scores on their six drives. 

A 23-14 deficit at halftime is far from catastrophic, but it doesn’t help when the team starts the second half without scoring on the opening drive, punts twice more, throws a costly interception that could have shifted momentum, and caps it all off with a fumble on the final drive.

The Bucs didn’t play a particularly bad game. They have worse first-halves, they’ve had worse second halves, they’ve certainly turned the ball over more (let’s not forget that Mayfield threw 3 interceptions in the second quarter against New Orleans).

The issue was that they were just bad enough in all three phases of the game. The defense had a disastrous first half but rebounded with as solid a second half as possible – just without recording any sacks or forcing turnovers yet again. On offense, the Bucs managed to outscore the Cowboys in touchdowns, but Brandon Aubrey’s three field goals from beyond 50 yards proved to be the game-changer.

The Bucs failed to reach the 150 yard rushing yard mark, as they had in the previous 4 games. The offensive line struggled and gave up 4 sacks for just the 5th time this season.

The run defense was great once again, but most importantly, the Todd Bowles-led defense allowed 292 yards to Cooper Rush, the third most of his career, and Sunday marked his highest Passer rating amongst those games.

The real backbreakers were the turnovers. The interception, which came on an endzone shot to Jalen McMillan, and with the DAL defender Jourdan Lewis’ back turned to the ball. As a matter of fact, McMillan had possession of the ball for a fraction of a second before it was ripped from his hands in mid-air.

To add insult to injury, the Cowboys didn’t even have the common decency to score after the turnover, instead punting the ball to the Bucs before Tampa drove the field for a Ryan Miller score. The defense would stand tall and provide another stop before Baker and the gang would take the field with 1:40 and no timeouts, needing just a field goal to win. Alas, tragedy struck once more. 

On the very first play of the drive, the Cowboys rushed six and Rachaad White was alone on an island with Nick Vigil. After holding his own for what must have been 3 and a half seconds, White slides into the flat while Mayfield gets absolutely flattened. Mayfield, the miracle-worker he is, manages to get the ball out to White, who slips Vigil, stiff-arms Marist Liufau, and… gets the ball literally taken from his hands on his way to the ground.

In the same play, Rachaad White makes the best argument possible for why he’s on the field on the final drive, and gives you a pretty good reason not to put him there again. Even more depressing is that he was essentially lined up as a fullback on the play, with no halfback on the play. The Bucs assumed the blitz was coming. As a matter of fact it seemed like the Cowboys sent a blitz on every play of the fourth quarter.

Key Player Performances:

Mike Evans managed 69 yards on his five catches, meaning he will need at least 182 yards over the next two games to reach his 1000 yard mark. While he was relatively limited by his own standards, Evans led the team in yards and managed third in all-purpose yards from both teams. Evans could be a major factor against Carolina, as he averages nearly 80 yards and more than half a touchdown per game against the division rivals in his career. His previous highs in the yearly series include a 7-162-1 on 12/3/2023 and a 10-207-3 performance on New Year’s day in 2023. Even earlier this year, Evans reached 118 yards on 8 catches including a 2 yard score that might have been the most impressive of his career. 

Jalen McMillan continued his breakout stretch with his 4th touchdown in 3 games, and nearly managed a 5th touchdown. He finished third in targets and second in receiving yards behind Evans. McMillan looks to extend his streak to 4 games against the Panthers, against whom he had just 2 catches for 25 yards earlier this season. 

Bucky Irving had 92 all-purpose yards, capping his day with a 2-yard score. Irving remains the top rookie rusher, as well as the all-purpose yards leader amongst rookies in 2024. Irving also has a chance to become the first Bucs 1,000 yard rusher in 9 years, with no Buccaneer reaching the millennium mark since Doug Martin in 2015. If not for wild seasons from Jaden Daniels and Brock Bowers (and even Caleb Williams, though you didn’t hear it from me), Bucky could very well be the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of The Year.

While Rachaad White only had 10 yards on his 3 carries, White contributed 7 catches for 50 yards, essentially functioning as a third receiver for the Liam Coen-led offense. White looks to reach the 1,000 all-purpose yards once again, after hitting 1539 yards last season. While Irving seems to have taken the driver’s seat in the early downs, expect White to maintain a large share of the receiving and redzone work. In fact, he has already matched his touchdown total of 9 from last year. 

Baker Mayfield hit 303 yards passing, his first 300-yard game since the creamsicle colored home loss against the Falcons. While the interception and sacks make the statline a little lackluster, Mayfield still added an electric 42 yards on 3 scramble runs. Mayfield reached 308 rushing yards on the season, the 5th most in a single season by a Bucs quarterback, just 117 yards behind Steve Young’s team record. While the record seems out of reach, he very well may pass Shaun King, Josh Freeman, and Doug Williams.

Mayfield is also only 124 yards from passing the career-best yardage total last year, and he also has his highest touchdown total. After Sunday, both of Mayfield’s seasons rank in the top 10 in single season passing in Bucs history. Mayfield ranks 6th in yards, 3rd in touchdowns, and 3rd in completion percentage

Playoff Hopes

Losing this game meant quite a bit, especially with the Falcons managing a victory over the historically bad New York Giants. The Bucs once again find themselves tied for first place in the NFC South, and because they were swept by the Falcons in a pair of close games, the Falcons hold the tiebreaker.

The Bucs are now the eighth seed, two games behind the Washington Commanders for the Wildcard spot and out of the playoffs. With an upcoming schedule that includes home games against the Panthers and Aints, winning out is at least likely for the Bucs, though the “Any Given Sunday” adage will hang over fans heads for the next two weeks like a cartoon anvil.

Winning the division would require the Bucs to win one more than the Falcons over the next two games, their next being the Commanders and the other also being the Panthers. If the Falcons were to win against the Commanders, fear not Bucs fans because Tampa winning out and Commanders losing out is a combination good enough to clinch a Wildcard.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7.5 point favorites against the Carolina Panthers, who they beat in overtime just a month ago. While Bryce Young has had some better games as of late, expect the Bucs to sweep their division opponent this weekend. Mike Evans will likely be force-fed the ball for better or worse, and Bucky Irving will look to use his 152 yard performance as a jumping-off point.