RBLR Rays Roundtable #24 – What Could “Selling” Look Like This Deadline?

This week, our writers previewed what should be an eventful trade deadline in which they expect the Rays to trade away some veterans to prepare for 2026 and beyond.

Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) & Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Trading Zack Littell, Brandon Lowe, and Pete Fairbanks

The Rays face an interesting dilemma ahead of the July 31st MLB trading deadline: buy or sell? On the one hand, the competitor in me would love to see my team make as many upgrades as possible to give this group the best chance at making the postseason. On the other hand, this team has been in a tailspin after its hot five or so weeks. The Rays concluded an emphatic sweep of the Kansas City Royals in Kauffman Stadium on June 26th – jumping to 11 games over .500 and within half a game of the AL East division lead. Since then, the Rays have proceeded to go 7-17 against fairly mediocre competition and have plummeted to 10 games back of the AL East divisional lead.

I cannot imagine the Rays buying a whole lot, if anything at all, after watching this brutal month of baseball and it being such a deep seller’s market. Sure, you could see fringe rule 5 eligible prospects get traded for interesting relievers with roster flexibility or flipped for prospects ahead of the annual Rule 5 crunch, but other than that, there simply isn’t a point to invest legitimate resources into this group at this very moment. Could Tampa Bay be a very interesting seller without really diminishing much of their chances? Yes, I do believe that Ha-Seong Kim, Zack Littell, Pete Fairbanks, and Brandon Lowe each present themselves as interesting targets ahead of the trading deadline. If teams are willing to absorb the health concerns to Lowe and Kim, it seems the Rays could get a fairly substantial haul, but as for Littell and Fairbanks, you’re probably looking at a 40 FV prospect for both or so.

Littell to the Giants – ESPN has mentioned Littell as a possibility in San Francisco, and that seems like a pretty logical destination for the veteran right-hander. Littell has had a great career in Tampa Bay up to this point, going from waiver claim mop-up reliever to reliable starter. Since Littell officially got stretched out to being a starter back on July 30th of 2023, he has a 3.66 ERA. The player I’d ask San Francisco for? Angel Guzman. Guzman is a bat-first prospect who, long-term, probably finds a home in either left field or first base, but I believe in his bat. Even during a down year for him, he is walking at a 17.4% clip and has a .140 ISO. He is a 50-grade runner, so there is some defensive projection possibly in the tank, but with his raw power and discerning eye (at just 19), I think this would be a pretty legit haul for a rental.

Now to answer, how does this impact the Rays for this year’s quest for a postseason berth? I don’t think it’s that impactful whatsoever. Sure, Littell is sporting a 3.72 ERA, but he is probably bound for some sort of regression in the run prevention department, as he is sporting a BABIP allowed .030 points below his career average and a LOB% of 7.3% above his career rate. It’d be a difficult void to fill within the rotation due to the uncertainty within players like Ian Seymour and Taj Bradley, but to add a non-rule 5 eligible bat with some projection seems like the right move with a team that is drowning.

Brandon Lowe to the Astros– Houston has been linked to the Rays All-Star 2nd basemen, and it seems like a pretty reasonable fit given the Astros are over-exposing rookie Brice Matthews (43.2 K%) due to the immense amount of injuries on their infield. Who could you expect to see as a return? I think, for starters, Jacob Melton would be a pretty outstanding addition to a the future of the Rays outfield. Melton has been embattled with some injuries this season, but has been very productive in AAA-Sugarland this season posting a 133 wRC+. Under the hood it looks as good as you can imagine: 90.3% Z-Contact% (~85th ML percentile) and he lands in about the same percentile when it comes to his O-Swing%, and he’s providing plenty of impact with his 61.2% HH% and his 113 max EV. Defensively, Baseball America grades him out as a 55 graded defender, and that seems in line with most. Melton is also a plus runner, swiping 30 bags last season and grading out as a 60 grade runner according to Baseball America. How would this impact the major league roster? This opens up the runway for the former top 30 prospect (Curtis Mead) to finally get a full-time shot in the major leagues and prove whether he belongs or not.

Pete Fairbanks to the Cubs – With the way the past few weeks have gone for Tampa Bay, it seems hard to believe that they can buy into this current group that has gone into a tailspin of late. It has become a much more likely reality that they will ship some pieces off as the deadline looms nearer and nearer as you fall farther and farther out of postseason contention. Pete Fairbanks, one of the most expendable assets on the team and a player who was likely to be moved even if they were more competitive. 

Fairbanks is a high leverage reliever that is much needed in Chicago’s bullpen as this year has been their most competitive season since 2020. Daniel Palencia is the current leader in saves for Chicago, and their bullpen innings pitched leaders include names like Brad Keller and Caleb Theilbar. All relatively good pitchers, but likely not names that would really inspire confidence in high leverage spots. Fairbanks would instantly become one of their most experienced relievers in save and postseason situations, and has been fairly productive this year, even with a dip in strikeout numbers. Fairbanks is cheap this year, but has an option next year that will likely be about $9M, a number that could be too expensive for a Rays bullpen arm. Look to see the Rays moving on from Fairbanks to avoid paying him this number, and the Cubs have been linked to Fairbanks for weeks. This would create a hole in the Rays bullpen, especially in a high leverage spot, but this would allow younger arms to step up and sink or swim in a role they may not be comfortable in.

A fair return could be Christian Franklin, a right handed hitting outfielder that should be able to come up and be a productive major leaguer. In AAA-Iowa this year, the 25 year old Franklin has a 112 wRC+, but a more important .389 on base percentage due to his 16 BB% and 21 K%. Franklin’s batted ball data suggests he should improve in the slugging category, as his 50.9% hard hit rate would rate within the 88th percentile of hitters in 2025 MLB. Franklin also pairs this with impressive plate skills, as his 41.3 Z-O swing% ranks higher than Juan Soto’s at the major league level this season. Further, his 89.3 zone-contact% would rank in the 74th percentile of MLB. This is a very advanced hitter who has flown under the prospect radar, considering he is 25 performing at a very high level in AAA on the field as well as under the hood, and with the Rays struggle to find an impact outfield bat post Randy Arozarena, Franklin could be the answer to finding the next impact Rays outfielder.

The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!