Losing A Coin Flip Might Land Vahn Lackey
During the annual Winter Meetings, the Rays awaited their draft lottery fate. Entering the night, Tampa Bay had a 3.03% (7th) chance to be awarded the number one selection and just a 6.6% chance to land a top two pick. With representative Brett Phillips eagerly waiting to hear the Rays name called, the number of teams continued to dwindle until there were just two, Chicago and Tampa Bay. The Rays eventually went on to be the second-to-last team called, securing them the 2nd overall selection.
At the time, that felt like settling. UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky looked like a surefire number one, and second place meant he had slipped through our glove. However, this draft class had other ideas and now the Rays may be picking exactly the right player at exactly the right spot.
A large part of why those things have changed is because of Vahn Lackey’s incredible season at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets’ backstop slashed .397/.519/.772 en route to a 170 wRC+ for the 2nd overall national seed.
Entering the 2026 season, Lackey was viewed as a mid-first-round pick and was perceived to be the 2nd-best draft prospect on the Yellow Jackets behind OF Drew Burress, according to most media publications, but after his ACC Defensive Player of the Year season and breakout with the bat, things have changed. The industry consensus views Vahn as a top-3 prospect, and some are going so far as to say he is the best player in the draft.
What has led to this breakout for Vahn? Lackey’s swing decisions have gotten much more efficient as he has seen a 5% chase% improvement since his sophomore season, and it has allowed him to tap into his plus raw power more effectively, as he has seen substantial jumps to his pull air% (77th percentile) and 90th % EV (95th percentile).
As exciting as the bat is, it’s probably his least exciting quality, if you can even say that. Vahn easily is plus back behind the plate, pairing a double-plus arm with the fastest pop times in college baseball. Lackey’s framing is fringe plus territory, but the athleticism is worth betting on. Most catchers you’d expect more than likely are fringe-average at best runners, but not with Lackey. The last two seasons, Lackey has swiped 33 bags in 37 attempts and is viewed as a plus runner by all accounts. The leadership qualities are also noteworthy, as evaluators laud his ability to work with staff.
The draft is never a place where a team should acquire a certain position because they’re unsatisfied with where they are, either at the major or minor league level, but the Rays have an opportunity to fortify a position with Lackey, which they haven’t ever been able to do. It’ll be interesting to see what the Rays do due to their unpredictable nature when it comes to the draft, but the leader in the clubhouse for me has to be Lackey.
