RBLR Rays Roundtable – 6/16/26
This week’s Roundtable brings you a Rule 5 eligibility crunch that could reshape the 40-man this winter, a statistical case for why Yandy Diaz deserves more flowers than he gets, and a draft argument that might ruffle a few feathers in the scouting community.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Rule 5 Decisions Coming Soon
This offseason, the Rays made an exorbitant trade that sent right-handed pitcher Shane Baz to the Orioles in exchange for four prospects, one of those being Michael Forrett. Michael opened the season among FanGraphs top 100 prospects and hasn’t disappointed thus far. In his 54.1 innings of work in Montgomery, Forrett posted a 16.1% K-BB% and a 29% CSW%.
The Rays recently promoted Forrett to AAA after his dominance in AA, and he got roughed up a bit in his first start (5 runs in 3 innings), but flashed plus shapes, including 17 inches of vertical separation between his four-seamer and changeup, and a short, harder curveball that could be used as a big strike pitch for him moving forward.
Forrett happens to be Rule 5 eligible (as are a lot of the Rays prospects), so this opportunity in AAA ahead of the trading deadline is extremely important for Michael to impress.
The Rays drafted Brayden Taylor with the 19th overall pick in the 2023 draft after he shockingly slid to them. Brayden’s first year in the system went about how you’d expect a first-round pick and top-100 prospect would perform, as he slashed .250/.365/.493, which was good for a 144 wRC+.
In the 2025 season, Brayden hit a wall in Montgomery, watching his power production plummet from a .243 ISO to a .114. After just one poor season, Taylor quickly saw his name vanish from any top 100 list that he was previously a part of and opened the season completely off of the Rays top 30 prospect list according to MLB Pipeline.
Taylor returned to Port Charlotte this Spring Training and had an impressive albeit 19 plate appearances as he went on to hit a home run and post a 120 wRC+. This seems to have parlayed into success this season at the AA level, where he has seen his power production return to career norms (.220) and has seen his wRC+ resuscitate to a 124 mark (up from 77 last season).
Brayden also happens to be Rule 5 eligible this offseason, setting up two extremely fascinating decisions for the Rays. The Rule 5 list includes pitchers Brody Hopkins, Ty Johnson (who more than likely will need protection), and AA pitcher Santiago Suarez. The bats include former first-round picks Cooper Kinney and Xavier Isaac, alongside AAA outfielder Homer Bush JR. These players, including the surging Forrett and Taylor, mean there are likely decisions that will be made sooner rather than later to reinforce the Major League Roster.
Jake Shutters (@JakeShutters) : Diaz, The Best Rays Hitter Ever?
This week, Yandy Diaz hit 20 career wins above replacement.
20 WAR isn’t nearly enough to enter the hall of fame (usually the bar is 60), but if you zoom out, Diaz is actually one of the best hitters in the 2000s. Among players with 4000 PAs since 2000, Diaz ranks within the top 35 hitters in baseball, with a 132 wRC+, higher than names like Christian Yelich, Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, and Josh Hamilton.
Among primary designated hitters with the same qualifications, Diaz ranks 7th, higher than Nelson Cruz, JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, and Victor Martinez. His .374 on base percentage also ranks 7th among designated hitters since 2000, and 38th among all players.
Looking at Rays history, Diaz is pretty clearly the best hitter in team history, as his 135 wRC+ is the highest among qualifying hitters in team history (Isaac Paredes is 2nd with a 129, but in about 2500 less plate appearances). Notably, 3 of the top 5 hitters in wRC+ are currently on the team, as Diaz (1st, 135), Caminero (T4th, 126) and Aranda (T4th, 126). The Rays are lucky to have 3 of their best 5 hitters in team history in their current lineup, and we have been lucky to watch Yandy Diaz play baseball every day since 2019.
Diaz won’t be a hall of famer, but will always have a place in baseball, and more importantly Rays history as their best hitter and one of their best players of all time, as his 19.7 fWAR with the Rays ranking 6th, and only 2.8 wins behind BJ Upton to reach the top 5 all time.
Cory Ketchum (u/FLBoy19) : Is Emerson The Pick at #2?
In the off-season this year, FanGraphs released an article discussing the largest changes in projected wins with the replacement of a team’s current starting position players or spot in the rotation. The Rays had the highest increase in playoff odds by replacing their SS pairing with one league-average starter, 2 fWAR, at 10%. With an above-average starter, 3 fWAR, the odds further increased to 16.8%.
The Rays were viewed as a fringe-playoff team at the time of publication on April 8th. However, it paints a current situation within the Rays organization. That being the projected FV of Carson Williams is rather low due to swing-and-miss concerns leading to disproportionate odds of him being a prospect who busts or returns sub-45 future value, making him a utility infielder. Carson’s ceiling is still very high, but due to marginal gains in contact% in Triple-A, my current standing is that he is a peak 3 fWAR player settling into a 1.5-2 fWAR player in his prime.
Currently, the Rays don’t have a SS prospect that provides an offensive ceiling that can have 4+ fWAR seasons. Cooper Flemming has the offensive ceiling, but is defensively mismatched as a SS and better suited to 3rd base. Daniel Pierce has already shown contact concerns at A-ball; however, he is still only 19. Gregory Barrios and Adrian Santana fit more into the utility-player camp.
The Rays possess a unique option with the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, as it’s a position the team will unlikely be in for the foreseeable future due to the collection of talent in the farm system and at the MLB level providing a stable floor. That’s why Grady Emerson should be the #2 overall pick.
The Rays have been rumored to be looking at Vahn Lackey, Jackson Flora, and Tyler Bell. However, in my opinion, Grady Emerson is the most talented player in the 2026 MLB Draft, with his only true flaw being he is not Bobby Witt Jr.
Looking at recent draft history of the Rays, the team has not shied away from taking big swings on prospects, choosing ceiling over floor. In 2020, the team drafted Nick Bitsko. In 2021, the Rays doubled down and aggressively selected both Carson Williams and Cooper Kinney. In 2022, the team drafted Xavier Isaac. In 2024, the team took Theo Gillen and Nathan Flewelling 94th overall. 2025 saw similar big swings in Daniel Pierce and Cooper Flemming.
The Rays like to swing big, and if available, Grady Emerson is the biggest swing you could take, as he could be a bona fide star at a premium position due to his advanced approach, plus speed, power, and defensive ability.
The other options provide a more stable floor at this point but other risks. Catchers are always a big gamble due to the physical demands of the position, pitchers are time bombs, and Bell is extremely talented but doesn’t possess the ceiling of Emerson. If the White Sox make the chalk selection of Roch Cholowsky, the Rays shouldn’t think twice about making Grady Emerson the 2nd overall selection.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
