The Upside Of BriseBois’ Roster Crunch

As the National Hockey League Draft neared this week, several intriguing deals were consummated throughout the league. However, as the Tampa Bay Lightning fan base has grown accustomed to in recent years under the leadership of general manager Julien BriseBois, Draft Night is just another random evening in the summer.

“You are looking for opportunities to have a pipeline of players,” BriseBois explained last month at his postseason press conference. “Whether it is via trades, free agents, or organically developed players, who can come in, step in, and play a role for many years to come.”

BriseBois actually invests his time and knowledge in the draft each summer; his success in finding gems in rounds other than the first is proof of that. However, it is a tad humorous that he never used the word “draft” in that explanation.

The Lightning have had just one first-round draft selection in the past six seasons (Isaac Howard in 2022), and BriseBois traded Howard away for blazing-hot prospect Sam O’Reilly a year ago when Howard refused to sign with the Lightning.

Tampa Bay has seven selections in this year’s draft (rounds 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 7), and BriseBois has shown an ability to do well with these types of picks.

Finnish sensation Benjamin Rautiainen was a fourth-round pick a year ago.

Syracuse Crunch forward Dylan Duke (fourth round, 2021) has shown promise in the AHL, as has Max Groshev (third round, 2020).

Gage Goncalves was a second-round pick in 2020 and has already played in 136 NHL games. He was picked later than second-round pick Jack Finley, who spent the early part of this past season with the Lightning before St. Louis claimed him on waivers.

“The reality is,” BriseBois continued, “when you are building your puzzle, you have essentially, let’s call it 22 spots on the roster.”

And therein lies the conundrum facing this franchise in its immediate future. If you actually write down the names of players under contract for the 2026-27 season, you will realize two things pretty quickly:

1. It will be very challenging for BriseBois to add a player better than the names currently on the Tampa Bay roster, and
2. There are a lot more than 22 players with NHL ability that BriseBois is staring at.

Forget about the 2026 draft, at least for the next couple of years. If BriseBois can find a player capable of making this roster within the next 24 months, given where he is selecting, he really can be called a genius in terms of evaluating talent.

In the immediate timeframe, Lightning fans have been clamoring for depth scoring and an improved face-off guy, as well as a replacement for defenseman Darren Raddysh, who was traded to Toronto earlier this month.  

The truth is that there is simply no room to do that. That is, unless you start moving current players, and the ones that other teams will covet just happen to be the ones that Tampa Bay fans also want on future rosters.

No team is giving you an uber-talented player in exchange for Zemgus Girgensons. Sorry, other teams have knowledgeable leadership, as well.

If you study the names of the forwards currently under contract, what you will conclude is that Syracuse is going to be a pseudo-NHL team next winter.

The Lightning’s first two lines (Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Goncalves) ain’t going anywhere.

Tampa Bay’s third line of Yanni Gourde, Pontus Holmberg, and Girgensons may have been the team’s most impactful on many nights last season. Surely, BriseBois and coach Jon Cooper want to allow that trio to run it back this year.

Which brings us to the final three spots on the ice each night. The list of players who will be battling in September’s training camp for one of those positions includes Nick Paul, Conor Geekie, Dominic James, Sam O’Reilly, Duke, Nicholas Abruzzese, Jakob Pelletier, Rautiainen, and Scott Sabourin.

Not mentioned was NHL veteran Mitchell Chaffee, who may or may not re-sign with the franchise.

Remember, I said there were THREE spots. Cooper isn’t going to be innovative and roll out five scoring lines this season.

The same dilemma is faced in terms of defense.

Even without Raddysh, the Lightning can play lines of J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak, Victor Hedman and Charle Edouard-D’Astous, Ryan McDonagh and Emil Lileberg.

That leaves Groshev, as well as Max Crozier, sitting nightly in the Benchmark International Arena press box or in Syracuse. And Declan Carlisle may join them if he re-signs with the team.

That list doesn’t even include Mateo Pietroniro, who was more productive last season in Syracuse than Groshev.

Now, can BriseBois go sign a better player – today – than James, Geekie, Lileberg, or O’Reilly? Certainly. However, how much of the salary cap will be eaten up by that move? And in light of Dallas forward Jason Robertson turning down a $15,000,000 annual deal on Thursday, BriseBois has to be a bit terrified of his predicament next summer, when Kucherov, Holmberg, Goncalves, Girgensons, James, Geekie, Sabourin, D’Astous, and Lileberg are all free agents.

“A player who can help me win for four years, “BriseBois said, “is more valid than a player who can only help me for one year. When we have these young guys, we can count on them for many years.

“They are extremely valuable, and we’re trying to get as many of them into the fold as possible.”

BriseBois has done just that. He has brought a lot of talent “into the fold.” And that will negate the amount of time he needs to spend this off-season shopping elsewhere.