RBLR Rays Weekly Roundtable – 6/29/26
This week at the writers’ table: what the farm is pushing out to be excited about, an outfield tossed and turned by callups and injuries, Drew Rasmussen carving out an argument that may turn some heads in November, and whether baseball’s payroll conversation is coming sooner than anyone expects.
Cory Ketchum (u/FLBoy19) : Tatin Gray is a big arrow-up prospect
At the end of 2024 the Rays had two uniquely different prospects that manned 1st base. Both were present on top 100 lists, but both had flaws that diminished future value. The Rays were constructed as a team with 2 first base locked players in Yandy Diaz and Johnathan Arraez. Junior Caminero’s defense has always been concerning, possibly limiting him to DH or 1st base long term. Xavier Isaac and Tre Morgan looked like they could be MLB players due to Isaac’s power and Tre’s zone and bat control, and exceptional defense.
As 2025 unfolded, their concerns became exasperated. Isaac had hit concerns, and his promotion to AA played out in 2025, boasting a 63% contact rate with a 37% swing rate, leading to a .201 batting average. His 19.4% walk rate and .245 ISO kept his wRC+ above average at 144, but that level of contact is not playable. It is difficult to say he will be a big-side platoon player, as he doesn’t swing enough, and when he does, he misses. MLB pitching will eat him alive. Tre Morgan’s lack of bat speed has been exposed, so upon his return, he will be worth monitoring.
Tatin Gray provides a +4 WAR ceiling. Tatin Gray is a mix of Xavier Isaac and Tre Morgan, possessing big power potential, while also having no obvious contact concerns from either side of the plate. It is rare for switch-hitting prospects to have equal contact rates on both sides; however, Tatin posts over 75% contact rates hitting righty or lefty. His 43.2% swing rate indicates willingness to swing, while posting a 10.1% swinging strike rate and 0.74 BB/K ratio. All together, Tatin has been able to post a 140 wRC+ and a .410 wOBA in 2026. Although his season will be abbreviated due to a surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow.
The only true knock on Tatin currently is his low flyball rate, choosing to laser line drives and hit groundballs with a 50% hard-hit rate. Tatin’s offensive approach and current production are reminiscent of Yandy’s, with hard-hit rates and line drives. However, Tatin’s 76% contact rate is not nearly the same elite contact quality that Yandy has maintained since signing as a 22-year-old from Cuba. Tatin Gray 1 year in has already made top 100 lists and provides a legitimate heir apparent for one of the 10 best positional players in Rays franchise history.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Mesa Bringing Power
The Rays have had their fair share of challenges in the outfield this season. From the lack of production (83 wRC+ last in MLB) to the extended injuries to Jonny DeLuca, and Jake Fraley have led the Rays to continue to search for production internally or externally. Victor Mesa JR is among the group that has received extended opportunities as of late and I think he has a good shot to stick on the big club moving forward.
Acquired by the Marlins on February 6th (For Angel Brachi), Mesa got off to a hot start in Durham (152 wRC+) and quickly grabbed the attention of fans, but an injury suffered after a game on April 15th halted any imminent chance he had at making the Major League roster.
After a 4 week IL stint Mesa stayed hot posting a 198 wRC+ and a home run in the 5 games he participated in. Victor was then pulled from the game on May the 22nd and was set to fill in for an injured Jonny DeLuca.
In his brief stint at the big league level Mesa has shown off his array of tools providing plus defense (1 OAA/2 DRS) and has shown some nice power potential featuring 75th percentile bat speed, an 11% barrel rate and plus feel to pull the ball in the air (23.3% pull air%).
Victor’s approach is among the most aggressive in the major leagues his 74.5% Z-Swing ranks him in the 93rd percentile among hitters with at least 60 plate appearances and while considering for his aggression within the zone he is maintaining a fairly tidy 30.1% O-Swing% (50th percentile).
Mesa’s excites me this year and beyond, and I think he certainly helps (especially if the power sticks) a Rays group that has certainly been lacking in the power department for the majority of the season.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays): Money Might Not Buy Love Wins
I was at the Mets Pride Night game against the Phillies on Friday with a few friends. (Surely there’s a joke in here about two Mets fans, two Yankees fans, and a Rays fan walking into a bar.) It also happened to be the first game after the firing of Carlos Mendoza.
By now, baseball fans are well aware of the dysfunction that has defined the team this season despite a $352 million payroll.
To no one’s surprise, the Mets lost, and the irony wasn’t lost on me that losing to the Phillies of all teams on Pride Night felt almost comically homophobic.
After the game, one of my friends brought up the age-old debate about big-market teams with huge payrolls, joking that a Brewers-Rays World Series would “break baseball.” Personally, I’d love a Brewers-Rays World Series. As someone who roots for the success of small-market teams (and, obviously, for the Rays), I sometimes forget just how unpopular that kind of matchup would be within the wider baseball community.
That conversation naturally led to another question: should every owner be willing to spend more to build a contender, rather than leaving that to the usual suspects like the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers? It’s a fair question, and one I often ask myself about the Rays. New ownership gives me some hope, but I’m still skeptical it will translate into significantly higher spending.
Even that shows the broader reality: payroll alone isn’t a guarantee. The Mets are the obvious cautionary tale this season, where even significant investment doesn’t guarantee results without the right organizational approach. The Rays, meanwhile, have shown they can consistently contend on a leaner budget thanks to a strong organizational model, though that lack of spending still manifests in both retaining talent and attracting top-tier free agents needed to turn a good team into a team built to win it all.
Zach Daab (@RealZachDaab) : Ras For Cy Young?
As a franchise, the Rays have often relied on a “greater than the sum of its parts” approach to team building. As a result, the seasons of top of the league brilliance from Rays players have been few and far between. Only 2 Rays, David Price and Blake Snell, have hoisted the Cy Young, and no Ray has ever won MVP. Junior Caminero may have something to say about the latter point, but Drew Rasmussen WILL have something to say in this year’s Cy Young Race.
Drew got off to a relatively slow start to this season (by Cy Young Standards anyway) posting a 2.64 ERA, a 3.63 FIP, and a 0.6 fWAR through April. Ranked 10th, 21st, and T-24th in the American League over that span doesn’t exactly scream Cy Young stuff compared to the competition over that sample size. Drew is also hurt by the innings limits placed on him due to the many surgeries he has undergone, evidenced by his league fewest 30.2 IP in April. Not only is the amount of innings pitched relevant in awards conversations, but also make any runs, hits or walks given up more damaging to his overall numbers.
Despite all that, Drew’s April did give us one stat that was a preview of the dominance to come in the following months, and that is his 0.85 WHIP which was good for 3rd best in the AL and 5th best in the Majors. One stat category does not usually win you a Cy Young though, and pretty much every other category was not cutting it to this point.
Since April though? Drew has been nothing short of the best pitcher in the American League. Now that’s a lofty claim but its backed up by a 2.60 ERA(3rd), a 2.64 FIP(1st), a 0.90 WHIP (2nd),a 4.8 BB% (3rd), and a 1.8 fWAR (T-2nd). No pitcher leads Drew in more than one of the stat categories I mentioned above. The fWAR is particularly impressive given that he has only pitched 55.1 innings (24th) since April. An incredible period of sustained dominance from Drew.
So where does that leave him for the year? His 30th best 86IP are not his friend from a fWAR standpoint, as he’s only accumulated a 9th best 2.4 so far this year. However, he is 2nd in ERA, 7th in FIP, 1st in WHIP, 2nd in BB% (behind only his rotation-mate Nick Martinez) and 3rd in xFIP.
The IP argument will be an easy target for those in favor of his primary competition for the award, Cam Schlittler, as he has 100 innings to his name this season. However, I do not believe that gap will continue to widen.
When Schlittler throws his 121st inning sometime in July, he will be in uncharted territory, as he has not thrown more than 120 innings in pro ball OR in even in college ball. Maybe he can keep this up the rest of the way, but I’m comfortable predicting at a minimum he will start moving back towards the kind of production he was putting out last season, which is closer to All Start Level than Cy Young Level.
Drew has maxed out at 144 and 150 IP in two of the last three seasons, which still less than the around 175 IP minimum IP needed to win the award, but a much easier bridge to cross.
That would leave Drew to battle it out with the likes of Parker Messick (Also never approached 150IP as a Pro), Ranger Suarez (currently fewer IP than Drew and below Drew in most stat categories at current) and his teammate Nick Martinez. I believe this is the year for Drew.
He’s been one of the best pitchers in MLB for a while now, and this is the year he will get his due.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
