RBLR Rays Weekly Roundtable – 9/28/26 – Winning The Division
The Rays are AL East champions — and after a season that began with ample skeptics, that pennant feels good. From a fan who witnessed its return to enemy territory, to the moves still to be made in the postseason rotation and the deadline acquisition that is coming up big, there is a lot to enjoy before we get to work.
Sandy (@SandyAndTheRays): A Cold, Windy, Perfect Night
Since 2022, I’ve made it a point to be at just about every Rays-Yankees game at Yankee Stadium. It’s become something of a routine for me as a New York-based Rays fan — there are only so many opportunities I get to see my favorite team play in person. Thankfully, I’ve also made it down to the Trop a handful of times, and I’m grateful to live in a city where one of the Rays’ division rivals plays, because it means there are always plenty of matchups to look forward to.
So nothing felt particularly out of the ordinary when I bought my tickets for this September’s Rays-Yankees series back in August. If anything, I was surprised by how cheap the tickets were, especially considering the stakes in the division and the possibility that a late-September series between these two teams could be pivotal depending on the standings.
By the time the series rolled around, the Rays needed just one win against the Yankees to clinch the AL East. I was already planning to be at both games of Tuesday’s doubleheader, and I had even taken the day off from work, so I went into the day knowing that either game could end with the Rays celebrating a division championship.
The afternoon game came and went, though let’s be real — it probably would have been a little odd for the team to clinch in the middle of the day, celebrate, and then come back out to play another game just a matter of hours later.
And then came the evening game. This time, the Rays got the win they needed.
By the eighth inning, most of the Yankees fans had cleared out of the stadium. At that point, it felt like only a matter of time. With every inning that passed, the Rays were getting closer and closer to clinching the division. And when the final out came, I finally let it sink in: the Tampa Bay Rays were the 2026 AL East champions.
I’ve never been in the ballpark for a team clinching a division before, so I wasn’t entirely sure what was supposed to happen next. At first, it looked a lot like any other win: handshakes and high fives all around, though there were also a few hugs that felt a little more special. I almost left after that. It had been a long day — I’d already spent hours at Yankee Stadium for the afternoon game, and it was cold and windy enough that I was more than ready to get home. But thankfully, my friend — a Yankees fan — suggested we stay a little longer so I could take it all in.
Thank God we did. I nearly missed the team coming back out in their division champion T-shirts for the team photo. It was also awesome seeing Junior Caminero belly-flop his way into the front of the team photo, which I captured on video.
By that point, I was absolutely shivering, but I was also buzzing with excitement.
Sitting in Yankee Stadium, watching my team celebrate a division championship against one of its biggest rivals, felt surreal. Coming into the season, there were plenty of skeptics and pundits who had counted this team out — and, if I’m being honest, plenty of Rays fans who weren’t entirely convinced either. Myself included.
But there I was. It’s never fun being in enemy territory, but it was nice to see dozens of other Rays fans who had made the trip from all over, scattered throughout the third-base side of the stadium. The steady “Let’s go Rays” chants almost made me forget where I was for a second.
Some might say it’s silly to celebrate a division championship, or that it’s just a meaningless banner the team will hang up. But this is only the fifth division title in Rays franchise history, and four other teams in the American League East don’t get to hang that banner this year. Getting to watch the Rays clinch it in New York, against the Yankees, made the moment that much more meaningful for me. After everything it took to get here, I’m not going to take it for granted.
Everything felt perfect, even if just for one night.
And now the real work begins. Playoffs, next.
Jacob Macauley (@raysfarmreport) : Starting Pitcher Plans In October
On Tuesday, the Rays clinched their fifth-ever division title in franchise history and will represent the American League as the #1 seed. Tampa Bay will have some decisions to make, especially on the starting pitching front, so which three should we expect to see?
Game 1 –
Game 1 is a no-brainer decision for Kevin Cash, as it should be Drew Rasmussen making his 2nd-ever postseason start in Game 1 of the ALDS. Drew has had a career year, posting 5 fWAR across a career-high 172 IP and should finish inside the top 3 in American League Cy Young voting. Rasmussen’s development has largely been due in part to the increased feel and usage for his kick-change he picked up last season. Drew has ramped up his use of that pitch by over 12% this season, and it has helped him find more miss vs. LHH (28.3% K%, career-best) while also helping with damage control (.160 wOBA, 29.3% HH%). This is by far the most complete version of Rasmussen we have seen in a Rays uniform, and it should be the most obvious postseason decision to run him out there in Game 1.
Game 2 –
This is where the decisions certainly get trickier, but my choice would be Freddy Peralta. Acquired at the 2026 trade deadline, Peralta’s Rays tenure got off to a bumpy start, pitching to the tune of a 7.17 ERA and 5.77 FIP across his first 21.1 innings with the club, but since then things have changed quickly. Since his start in Detroit, Freddy has posted a 0.79 ERA and a 2.78 FIP to go along with the team being 6-0 in those starts. Freddy has seen some massive improvements to his fastball shape inside Tropicana Field this season. At the Trop this season, Peralta’s fastball has been thrown 0.7 mph harder while getting 0.2 inches more of extension, and he has seen 1.7 more inches of carry on his heater. For these reasons, I think it makes the most sense to ensure Peralta gets a home start in October, and I think he will be a pivotal part of this team’s future in October.
Game 3 –
This leaves one last obvious candidate, and that is Nick Martinez. Martinez signed a 1-year, $13M deal late in the offseason to join Tampa Bay, and he has easily been one of the biggest steals of free agency. Martinez ranks 12th among qualifiers in ERA and has left many people saying throughout the season, “That he will regress!” but alas, Martinez has given the Rays a great chance to win in all but two of his 30 starts this season. The Rays have done a few things to optimize Martinez this season, and I believe the biggest thing that has sparked Martinez’s success is actually his sinker. Nick’s sinker use has almost doubled from last season and has returned some strong results, including a .304 wOBA allowed and a 36.2% hard-hit rate. The Rays have gotten Martinez to find more arm-side run on the pitch, helping it tunnel more effectively with his double-plus changeup. I couldn’t bring up Nick without diving into the success of his changeup. Since coming over from NPB in 2022, Martinez has had one of the best changeup shapes in the sport. It’s an insane outlier pitch, clocking in at the slowest average speed among starters’ changeups at 78.3 MPH. In his career as a starter, Nick has thrown his changeup more than ever this season, and it has especially helped him aid some middling results vs. right-handed hitters. Last season, Nick relied on the offering just 14% of the time to right-handed hitters and surrendered a .322 wOBA. This season, he has seen the usage jump about 7% alongside the evolution of his sinker; those two have helped him hold right-handed hitters to a .300 wOBA. The model leader and teammate Martinez is more than deserving of factoring into this ALDS for the Rays, and I anticipate him either getting the ball for Game 2 or Game 3 in October.
The Others –
Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour both came into the season under the expectation that they would be pitching out of the bullpen this season, but due to some workload management and injuries, the Rays turned to both of them and asked for them to convert into a starter role this season. After a dreadful start, Jax has used the conversion opportunity to revive his season, as since making his first start, Jax has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and 3.46 FIP. Jax has progressively backed off his fastball in favor of his sinker which has been a good idea because his four-seamer has a +12% hard hit delta over his sinker. Seymour, on the other hand, has had a weird year. Ian is running the fourth-best K-BB% in baseball since August 1st, but has a 4 ERA during that time frame. The lack of barrel suppression has certainly been an issue with both Jax and Seymour due to them having sub-par fastball shapes, leaving me reluctant to have either one of them starting in October, but both should be impact relief options for the Rays
This is the richest the Rays have been at starting pitcher since their runs in 2019/2020. This group is certainly one of the best in baseball, and with the multitude of relief options they have, they can get very creative with optimization and usage.
Carter Brantley (@ctbrantley12) : Most Impactful Trade Deadline Acquisition?
The best answer for this is “They’ve all been wonderful and the Rays did a great job yay! (:”
And that’s fair; all 3 of the major trades they made near the deadline have been incredibly valuable and excellent on the field.
But hey, it’s always fun to do some rankings, so let’s get a little crazy here:
- Freddy Peralta
What? Freddy over Liam Hicks?
I’m really having to split hairs here, and this might be more of a contrarian take, but Peralta has been absolutely nails over the month of September.
Over this last month of the season he’s allowed a .206 wOBA over 22.2 innings. The wOBA is by far the lowest mark he’s allowed in any month of what has been a bit of a rough 2026 for the veteran.
There are the obvious reasons for this:
- He started hammering his changeup a lot more with the Rays, using the pitch around 30% of the time in his 2 months with the Rays to end the season, compared to using it only about 21% of the time while in the Big Apple.
- His chase and strikeout rates increased after getting dealt, while his walk rate dropped off a bit.
- The ball wasn’t getting hit nearly as hard, especially in September where he allowed a 4.9% barrel rate (I won’t bring up his August mark in this category because he had the rotten luck of pitching in Sacramento and Colorado in his first 2 starts with the team).
Some of it can also be chalked up to good ole luck, as his BABIP fell to .257 from .305 when looking at his 1st and 2nd half performances.
It took him a few starts to settle in as a Ray, but now that he has, he’s comfortably their 3rd best starter and will be playing a key role in what hopes to be a fun Postseason run. That’s pretty darn important, with Shane McClanahan being out and Griffin Jax running a career-high innings total and still recovering from a mid-season injury.
- Liam Hicks
Yeah, yeah, Hicks has been more valuable based on the pure numbers, but I like going with vibes sometimes, too.
Regardless, Hicks has been just as good as advertised after being sent 5 hours north from Miami to Tampa Bay.
His 166 wRC+ in August was a big reason for the Rays’ lack of drop-off during a month where their star sluggers were struggling a bit (minus Junior Caminero, of course).
He hasn’t been as good in September, but the Rays having to face so many darn lefties over the last few weeks has probably had at least a little to do with that.
Hicks’ play style has fit in perfectly with the 2026 Rays; he is a brutal at bat for pitchers, as he doesn’t strikeout, he doesn’t go out of the zone too often, and he rarely swings and misses (he’s got a 98th percentile whiff rate).
He’s been able to tap into his power a good bit more too, with a 5.1% jump in his pulled fly ball rate helping to ease some of the lack of raw power.
Overall, Hicks might only be the 2nd most valuable deadline acquisition, but he’s probably the 4th most valuable position player the Rays have (depending on how you feel about Taylor Walls, who is more of a “he who shall not be named” type of fella for me).
- Tyler Wells
Poor Wells is getting the short end of the stick here; he only allowed 3 runs in the months of August and September over 18 innings. Given, he’s been on the injured list for the past week or so, so that’s hampered his impact a little bit.
But when healthy, Wells is and will be a key piece of the A-team bullpen the Rays put out in the playoffs.
Wells, Kevin Kelly, and Bryan Baker are all fun under-the-radar fellas to have finishing out games, and the Rays can use them in a variety of ways.
If they just had Kelly and Baker, they might be in some trouble; with Wells in the mix, they’re able to play a much more aggressive game in terms of having short leashes for some of their starters.
Griffin Jax could play a fun roving role to shore up some of those middle innings and could be an interesting bridge between the starters and that terrific trio.
Overall, Wells has been well worth the price of admission, and while he comes in “third,” he’s been pretty darn good.
The RBLR Rays Roundtable is a weekly collection of analysis, insight, and perspectives from a cast of writers assembled because of their unique backgrounds and experience. Check this space weekly for new updates and features covering the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays’ minor league prospects, and more!
