Home vs. New Mexico United Preview

Date: Saturday June 10, 2023

Kickoff Time: 7:30 pm EST at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg, FL

Records: Tampa Bay Rowdies (21pt 6W-3D-4L); New Mexico United (14pts 4W-2D-5L)

Standings: The Rowdies are 3rd in the East and New Mexico are 9th in the West

A weird draw that led to two red cards against the best team in the league has the Rowdies facing down the prospect of suspensions in their next game. However, a familiar face is back in town to help get the club back on track. Can the Green and Gold return to winning ways almost immediately? New Mexico United will be looking to get themselves on the right path first. 

So no Conner Antley… or JJ Williams?

The final ten minutes of the game against Sacramento proved extremely important – and costly. In what appeared to be a case of Making Yourself the Star of the Show, referee Olvin Oliva started to hand out cards to anyone and everyone. After a clumsy challenge from JJ Williams, the striker received his marching orders. You could say that was the more justified of the two sendings off even if you have any quibbles about it. 

The second red card truly baffles this observer. Going into a challenge well into stoppage time, Conner Antley slides through an opposition player and seems to have some words with him while he’s still on the ground. Antley went into this tackle without a yellow card in the game. In the next 30 seconds, he had also been sent off. Two early showers and two subsequent suspensions. 

After the Williams hit, you could reasonably argue a yellow card had been dished out. (The first booking he received is where I personally would take issue.) However, on the official scoresheet, Antley is booked in both the 90th + 2 and again in the 90th + 2. Was the first yellow for the tackle and the second for some back talk? Without an answer from the league, fans can’t know. They can only sit and wonder what could possibly have been said to be worthy of a second caution so shortly after the first one. 

Now going into a game against West Coast opposition, the Rowdies are obviously without these two players in addition to all the players missing through injury. Reports suggest Jake Areman is back from his time out, giving hope to fans who want to see a midfield that has an adequate number of players in it. But, this will still throw a wrench into things. 

Yann Ekra had been starting alongside Jordan Doherty for the past several weeks. No word on his imminent return has been given yet. Similarly, Dayonn Harris was starting up until last week on the right wing. His time table is also unknown. Add that to the prior injuries, including Lewis Hilton, Zach Herivaux, and Leo Fernandes, and Tampa Bay are truly begging for scraps in areas. Surely a few square pegs will have to go into round holes. 

The good news is that a familiar face is here to help out: Laurence Wyke. Yes, Wyke has joined his former club on loan from MLS side Nashville, where his playing time was not good. After playing for several years under head coach Neill Collins, he was able to take his instructions well and step seamlessly into a midfield role that was still different from what he’d played before. His versatility will be a boon to a shorthanded roster. 

With Wyke returning and Areman likely to be back, it’s possible that the right back position won’t be a problem. The aforementioned Doherty started there at the beginning of the season, and while losing him in the midfield might sound perilous, it’s probably better than putting a left footer in that role. Up top, only one substitution was used on the weekend, that being Cal Jennings, who came on for Sebastian Dalgaard. Seb D was filling in for the injured Harris while making his 99th appearance for the club. 

Jennings appears to be the natural replacement for JJ Williams, if not only for the fact that he has done so several times already. While the team has certainly found trouble in all these absences, it still doesn’t seem catastrophic. Despite all the injuries they already had, the Rowdies managed a draw against the best team in the league, and never looked overly pained in the process. A team doing demonstrably worse in the Western Conference table might be just what they need in this middle part of the season. 

What will New Mexico hope to get out of this?

On the other hand, New Mexico have very recently been dealt a blow separate from anything on the field. Long time assistant and then-head coach Zach Prince has left the club. In his stead, Itamar Keinan was named the new (and first) Sporting Director for United. Keinan has previous experience with the team as its Director of Player Personnel, which will put him on a good footing as he seeks to determine who should now lead those players. 

However, all of this could affect how things go for the boys on the field. Masaki Hemmi, the first assistant coach until Prince left, has taken over in the interim. He is, of course, familiar with the team and its tactics. He should be able to provide some continuity for players currently waiting for the marching orders. In that sense, they will likely be the same old New Mexico – at least for now. 

The same old New Mexico currently means a 4-4-2 or at most a 4-1-4-1. Their principles are mostly unchanging and the results are mixed. Two wins and two losses in the league (as well as one vs. Austin FC of MLS in the Open Cup) suggest things can either go very well or very poorly for United in this formation. 

Their top scorer is Sergio Rivas, an attacking midfielder who will likely assist the front two if he’s not a part of it directly. Behind him in the charts is Josh Dolling with three assists, an Englishman who will certainly be a part of the strike partnership. Dolling is a recent college graduate while Rivas has a few more years between him and graduation. They’ll want to maximize each other’s strengths and play off each other to try to create chances to score. It’s also Dolling who has the most Big Chances created, according to stats site FotMob. 

Amando Moreno, a winger, and Chris Wehan, another attacking midfielder, will also be key contributors for New Mexico. Each of them has two goals and an assist, and will want to be there to move things forward when Justin Portillo has the ball. Portillo will sit in as the defensive midfielder and orchestrator of all United plays. He has both the most chances created overall and most accurate long balls to his name this far into the season. Applying constant pressure when he has the ball will be important for Tampa Bay to thwart attacks before they start. 

What should give Rowdies fans hope is New Mexico’s recent defensive record. Despite their best efforts, New Mexico haven’t held a clean sheet in 11 games. In fact, Alex Tambakis only has one this whole season. This isn’t solely down to him; but, it is important information for Tampa Bay to take into this game. 

What it means is that Cal Jennings, well known for his eagerness to have a crack, will likely want to fire at will on Saturday. Have a foot? Take a hit. Have an inch? Still take a hit. Jennings will surely have more than one opportunity in space that he’s created on his own. Where the rest of the team comes in is trying to make sure the chances the Rowdies are known for still turn into Big Chances. Our crosses need to have late runners at the far post and the top of the box in case anything breaks loose right after the ball comes in. 

Behind Enemy Lines with Special Guest Chris Walker (@ByChrisWalker Writer, Seeker & Strike Collective)

New Mexico United, who recently announced the departure of Technical Director and Head Coach Zach Prince, come to Tampa Bay Rowdies this weekend looking to snap a two-match losing streak. United, who is 2-1-2 in their last five outings, will face the Rowdies for the first time in their club’s existence. 

United will be led by First Assistant Coach Masaki “Mac” Hemmi, who will be interim and handle all the preparation for upcoming matches. United’s Top Scorer is attacking midfielder Sergio Rivas leading all scorers with 4 goals. Amando Moreno, Chris Wehan, and newcomer Greg Hurst bring up the rear with 2 goals a piece. United have featured in a 4-4-2 and combinations of 4-3-3, 4-3-1-2, and 4-1-4-1 namely in possession. 

United, who concede an average of 1.5 goals per match, will have to keep their composure against a team like the Rowdies who average 1.5 goals per match while sitting fourth on the Eastern table. United currently sits ninth on the  Western Table. In order for United to defensively stop Rowdies five-match unbeaten streak, they will need to use a high press on a frequent basis around top players like JJ Williams and Charlie Dennis to disrupt any flow to keep them from getting hot. On the attacking side, it’s anyone’s game for United. Our player to watch is Alex Waggoner, the newcomer is a stout academy signing that continues to put himself in dangerous areas for United and make impacting plays.

Score Predictions from the RBLR Rowdies Podcast:

Carlos Rueda: 3-1 Rowdies

James Knowles: 4-1 Rowdies

Yurika Wheeler: 3-1 Rowdies

Special Guest: 1-0 Rowdies from Mike Morroni (@mmorroni17)