Week 13: Bucs Look To End Skid At Home

Ah, yes. The classic mid-season collapse. Now a hallmark of the Todd Bowles tenure. The Bucs are just 4-9 in the month of November under Bowles, and that isn’t including the three game slide in October of 2022. This is the fourth season in a row with a 3+ game losing streak.

After such a hot start to the season, one of the best in franchise history, they were due for a few losses. Especially given the injury situations. How many of the 8+ win teams have played significant stretches, if not most of the season, without their WR 1, WR 2, WR 4, RT, RG 1, 2, and 3, LG, LT, RB 1, their two best pass rushers, their CB 1 (who’s been one of the best in the league when healthy), CB 3, and now their QB, who will likely play through a shoulder injury this week, a similar scenario to what played out towards the end of his tenure in Cleveland.

The first loss against the Patriots was fluky. A couple shot plays that were 50/50 and bounced the wrong way for Tampa Bay. Yet they had a chance to win the game at the end, and came up short.

The game against the Bills? Still feels fluky, but a pattern is emerging. The pass rush isn’t getting home, the Bucs sit back, and Josh Allen torches the Bucs secondary after six seconds. Or, the pass rush gets there on a blitz, Allen escapes the pocket, and hits a receiver that should have been covered had he not had seven seconds to throw. Overall, an ugly game for the Bucs, but every once in a while Josh Allen just does that to teams. He’s a great QB, and the Bucs put the game squarely on his shoulders, taking the run game away from the Bills. Not to mention that they ended up relying on a rookie at outside corner rather than Jamel Dean, who got hurt on the second play of the game. Not a good game for Tampa Bay, but not the end of the world. The offense kept us in the game, and at the end of the day, they had a chance to win the game, needing an onside kick among other improbable plays. A slim chance, but a chance nevertheless. 

And now, a third loss. This is the game I figured they had the lowest chance of winning out of the whole schedule, not to mention this brutal stretch. I’ve had this game marked down as a loss since the schedule was released. 

On the one hand, the Rams are just a bad matchup for Tampa Bay. Sean McVay is only 4-2 when facing the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense, but one of those losses came in the 2022 season, when the 5-12 Rams only got nine games of Matthew Stafford, and nine games of Cooper Kupp. The other loss came in a 55-40 shootout in which the two offenses combined for nearly 982 yards of offense, six passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns, four interceptions, and a fumble (only ONE of the turnovers was Jameis Winston!). 

Matthew Stafford in 5-3 against Tampa in his career, and just 2-2 since Todd Bowles became the defensive playcaller.

But it appears, at least this season, that Matthew Stafford is to Sean McVay what Excalibur is to King Arthur. Or the Infinity Gauntlet to Thanos. Thor’s Hammer. Luke Skywalker’s lightsaber. Stafford has been borderline impervious to pressure this season, and the WR duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams doesn’t hurt either. 

The Bucs couldn’t blitz, as Stafford has amassed 1,067 yards (6th), 21 touchdowns (1st, more than double anyone else), and just 2 interceptions (according to PFF). 

They haven’t been able to generate pressure with DL Calijah Kancey sidelined by a Pec tear since week 2, and OLB Haason Reddick out with some combination of ankle sprain and knee soreness since week 7. It’s been ugly and sacks wiped out by roughing the passer calls never help either. It has seemed to be an issue all year for Tampa Bay. To be clear, they had no trouble rushing with four to start the season, even with Kancey out, ranking in the top ten in Sacks and Pressures on non-blitz pass rush snaps.

In the secondary, there’s been some serious regression from Zyon McCollum and it’s starting to become a very real concern. The Rams passing attack seemed predicated on attacking him, and he had his worst game in a Bucs jersey. It’ll never be easy for any cornerback to cover Davante Adams, due to his physical traits combined with his one of one route running ability, and it was on clear display, in front of a national audience, as he gave up two first half touchdowns and a very early 18 yard completion to pick up a third and 17. It’s not a good look, especially after signing a big time contract extension. Luckily, he won’t draw the top matchup next week as Jamel Dean returns from injury, and it appears that Marvin Harrison Jr. may not play either. The whole roster is desperate for a bounce back game, and I’m sure he’ll be looking for his first interception of the season to wash the nasty taste out of his mouth.

On the offensive side of the ball… there’s only really one half to look at, and it wasn’t exactly pretty. Winning the toss and electing to receive, but failing to score is the worst case scenario in terms of starting a game. They actually got to the 43 yard line (a 60 yard field goal), elected to punt (despite having a kicker that’s 23/26 on 50+ yard kicks since 2023, and a perfect 8/8 this season, and set the record for longest outdoor kick in NFL history earlier this year). The punt went a miraculous 23 yards, pinning the Rams at the 20 yard line, ya know, where touchbacks used to come out to. 

The next drive, Baker throws to wide open Cade Otton, who bobbles it straight into enemy hands, and it gets returned for a pick six. While it’s still a little bit of an iffy “how was that ruled a catch” play, it’s a real bad look for your Tight End to get his chain snatched twice on national television in one season. Wear gloves, hold onto the freaking ball. 

While it was nice to see Baker use his legs again to pick up some first downs and keep an eventual touchdown drive alive, his shoulder injury and then aggravation on the arm-punt of an interception to end the half certainly serve as a reminder of his mortality. 

The rest of the game was a wash. None of it mattered once Mayfield left the game. How Teddy Bridgewater beat out Kyler Trask for the backup job is mystifying. Certainly Trask couldn’t have been that bad, right? Teddy two-gloves looked like he straight up didn’t want to be out there. Obviously there are barely enough good quarterbacks to go around, which makes a good backup harder to come by, but sheesh. I’d rather see Connor Bazelak next time. 

Ultimately, the Bucs lost that game, but according to The Athletic’s playoff chance tracker, the Bucs dropped from 83% to 80%. In all honesty, they only need three of the next six games to make the playoffs. A win over the Falcons and a sweep of the Panthers would guarantee that the Bucs finish at least 9-8, and the Falcons and Panthers both finish 9-8 at best, with the Bucs holding tie breakers over both. It’s a tightrope they shouldn’t need to walk.

As a matter of fact, the Bucs have about as easy a schedule as possible in the last six weeks. Their opponents are a combined 25-43, which counts the 6-6 Panthers twice, their best opponent left (at least by record). A reminder that the Panthers just got absolutely washed by the 49ers 24 hours after the Bucs did. 

The Cardinals are not a good football team. Not remotely. They have yet to score 30 points this season, and they’ve given up 40+ twice in the last three weeks, and lost in overtime this past week. They’re without their top three running backs and possibly Marvin Harrison Jr., but Marv has hardly been their biggest receiving threat. Tight End Trey McBride is on a heater, with the second longest streak in NFL history of games by a Tight End with 5+ catches. He’s had 6 touchdowns in the five games he’s played with Jacoby Brissett. 

The Bucs have been largely untested by tight ends this season, only facing 75 targets, which is tenth fewest in the league, and they’ll likely see a hefty dose as a defense that has a huge gaping hole in the middle of the field where a linebacker should go. 

In all seriousness, SirVocea Dennis has slowly improved with each game he’s played, but this ought to be a big test for him, as well as Tykee Smith who will likely come down from Safety to match up against the hefty threat.

WR Michael Wilson has had a significant breakout over the last two weeks, logging 25 catches for 303 yards on 32 targets, but no touchdowns. The Cardinals have thrown the ball a ton, including over 100 pass attempts over the last two weeks, and four games over 40 pass attempts in the six games he’s played. 

Just a week after the Bucs secondary got bullied by the Rams, they’ll face a torrent from a hot-handed Jacoby Brissett, and a secondary that at one point looked like a top five unit this season will have to bounce back. 

From a defensive perspective, the Cardinals certainly play fast. They don’t blitz a ton, and they practically live in Quarters. Expect to see some Mills concepts and a lot of 12/21/22 personnel as the Bucs look to bash in what was already a defense that struggled against the run, and will now be missing rookie IDL Walter Nolen who’s been the centerpiece of the defensive front.

The good news is that not only will Baker Mayfield be playing (despite this not being a strictly must win game), Bucky Irving will be returning along with Ben Bredeson, Haason Reddick, Jamel Dean, and Chris Godwin Jr. will continue to get healthier.

To be completely honest, the Bucs fanbase is already calling for heads to roll. If they lose this week, there might actually be rioting on Nebraska Avenue, much less Dale Mabry Highway. They need to right the ship quickly, and while this won’t be the easiest matchup in the world, certainly not as easy as it looks on paper, this team shouldn’t give them anywhere near as much trouble as the last three teams. And with the team being just about fully healthy (only missing Kancey, Mike Evans, Benjamin Morrison, Rashad Wisdom, Jalen McMillan, all expected back this season), there’ll be virtually no excuses.